Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on CBA, RIO and TLS falls, but ANZ's gain on Q3 update saves the day

The ASX 200 ended marginally lower as stock-specific results drove several big individual moves. The standouts were Origin Energy and ANZ to the upside, while Telstra disappointed. Gold, base metals and critical minerals stocks pulled back.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 20.9 points lower at 9,188.5, 0.52% from its session low and 0.23% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged well behind decliners for a second straight day — this time by 92 to 186.

Utilities (XUJ) (+2.8%) was Thursday's clear best sector and the driver was one stock, one result. Origin Energy (ORG) (+5.3%) surged after posting a surge in full-year profit and energy market earnings — a windfall from the Iran conflict.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.7%) rebounded after two days of post-RBA hawkish messaging selling, helped along by Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) (+4.9%) shrugging off a more than $1 billion full-year loss to rise — the market apparently deciding the write-downs had cleared the decks for a cleaner earnings trajectory ahead. The supermarket majors also recovered — Coles (COL) (+1.0%) and Woolworths (WOW) (+0.7%) both firmed.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.8%) and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.2%) were led by several recent and long-standing ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List constituents: Bravura Solutions (BVS) (+12.1%), Megaport (MP1) (+4.9%) and Iress (IRE) (+4.0%) in IT, and Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (+2.8%), Cochlear (COH) (+1.7%), Ansell (ANN) (+1.3%), and Pro Medicus (PME) (+1.1%) in health.

ASX 200 Financials Sector Index (XFJ) intraday chart

Financials (XFJ) (+0.1%) was flat, but that result hid some repositioning among the sector's main players. ANZ (ANZ) (+4.5%) bounced after its quarterly trading update — confirming the same pattern of double-digit mortgage application declines as CBA and Westpac, yet somehow triggering a positive market reaction. National Australia Bank (NAB) (+1.2%) and Westpac (WBC) (+0.9%) also recovered ground. Offsetting gains among these three, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-2.2%) continued to fall.

Communication Services (XTJ) (-2.3%) was the session's worst sector and the reason was singular — Telstra (TLS) (-3.2%) reported lower full-year revenue in results that disappointed investors across several metrics. As the sector's largest and most index-influential constituent, Telstra's decline pulled Superloop (SLC) (-3.1%) and Chorus (CNU) (-1.8%) down in its wake.

ASX 200 Material Sector Index (XMJ) intraday chart

Materials (XMJ) (-0.7%) entered its second session of pullback as commodity price leads turned negative across the board. COMEX copper futures fell 1.4% to US$6.526/lb and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-3.6%) was the heaviest drag, while Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-2.1%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-1.6%), and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-1.7%) also fell as NdPr rare earth prices in China fell 1.1% to CNY 715,000/t in the Asian session.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-0.5%) snapped its seven-session positive run as precious metals prices eased in Asian trade. COMEX gold futures fell 0.7% to US$4,434.40/oz and COMEX silver futures fell 1.3% to US$64.84/oz. Performances were split, though — Predictive Discovery (PDI) (+1.9%), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) (+1.5%), and Northern Star Resources (NST) (+0.3%) held positive, while Evolution Mining (EVN) (-1.2%), Pantoro Gold (PNR) (-1.2%), and Ramelius Resources (RMS) (-1.4%) gave ground.

Energy (XEJ) (-0.4%) also split along sub-sector lines. Oil and gas producers eased as ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.5% to US$88.58/bbl — Beach Energy (BPT) (-1.2%) and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-0.7%) were both softer. Fuel retailers and refiners moved in the opposite direction — Ampol (ALD) (+1.0%) and Viva Energy (VEA) (+0.7%) both advanced, their refining margins benefiting from a softening crude environment.

In other commodities moves, GFEX lithium carbonate futures gained 1.1% to CNY 151,400/t but lithium stocks gave back some of their recent recovery — Core Lithium (CXO) (-2.8%), IGO (IGO) (-2.4%), and Liontown Resources (LTR) (-1.2%) were all lower, with Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+4.2%) the notable exception.

Analysis

Will it, or won’t it? 🤔

I still think it will. It’s still a MOTN ⬆️ proposition in my opinion, that is.

Just consider the massive wall of demand that wiped out any supply in its way between the “gone for all money” low of 24425 and the current 26789-27191 supply zone.

Compare it to the only very modest supply side showing since, including Wednesday’s smidge of a black candle — and one must conclude that the demand side remains very much in control of the Comp’s price.

And we know, when the demand side is this impervious to attack — MOTN the Comp does what it’s good at = BULL MARKET! 🐂📈

But… and yes, I am covering my assets here: 26789-27191 isn’t exactly a muck-around zone either. Clearly, I mean, isn’t technical analysis beautiful clearly: there’s some credible supply up and around here.

Supply that must be consumed if we are to get to the next bit of this bull market.

So, you know the drill:

• White-bodied candles + Downward pointing shadows = ✅

• Black-bodied candles + Upward pointing shadows = ❌

• In each instance, bigger = more meaningful!!!

View

I am 2/3RP on US stocks. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs the short term trend ribbon (presently 25902-25996) is the key zone of demand.

Analysis

What have we been saying over the last few days? Could have been worse? 🤷

Same today: Very nice downward pointing shadow (even if the market breadth was rubbish for the second day running).

The problem is, string enough "could have been worse days" together, and well... it's going to be worse. There's a point where the sugar coating wears off...

I don't think we're there yet. As in, like the Comp, I'm still MOTN ⬆️ on the OTP — just, I'd prefer if it got a wriggle on and retested the 9297 high quickly.

Or just give us a demand side candle of any kind — even that would be enough! 🤦

I think it's still pretty tame, "don't worry, this is just a pullback" kind of stuff, at least until we close below the short term uptrend ribbon — now the critical zone of demand on the chart (presently 8986-9061).

Tomorrow's the day. The OTP will come through for us. It won't disappoint. You'll see... (🙏)

View

I am FRP on Aussie stocks. (My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in ASX stocks is now 100%).

Key Levels

There is no key point of supply to contend with, while demand is at 8940 and then at the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8986-9061).

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

***CHARTWATCH LIVE WEBINARS — NEW VIDEO DROPPED!!! 📺🍿***

GOLD! The Gold price is rising again: Massive ASX Gold sector review 🏅

TODAY

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today...

LATER THIS WEEK

Thursday

• 22:00 USA July Core PPI (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m previous)

Friday

• 09:30 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 12:30 AUS July CB Leading Index

• 22:00 USA July Core Retail Sales (+0.2% m/m forecast vs -0.2% m/m previous)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (54.4 forecast vs 55.2 previous)

• 00:00 USA Preliminary July University of Michigan Inflation Expectations