The ASX stocks most upgraded by brokers with the greatest upside potential
Broker activity picked up as mining companies released quarterly results, with plenty of upgrades and one spectacular price target increase.
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Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Broker activity has picked as mining companies release their quarterly results
- Coles Group (COL) and TPG Telecom (TPG) each attracted upgrades, while miner IGO (IGO) was most prominent in the downgrades list
- Niobium tearaway WA Resources (WA1) took top honours for price target increase with a whopping 128% upgrade
Welcome to our weekly review of the biggest broker moves on ASX stocks for the last week. Broker activity has certainly picked up due to the release of quarterly activities and financial results for mining companies, and ahead of the mini-banking reporting season.
Generally, there were a greater number of upgrades compared to downgrades, which suggests most company reports were ahead of expectations. Supermarket giant Coles Group (ASX: COL) and telco TPG Telecom (ASX: TPG) featured in the upgrades list, while nickel and lithium miner IGO (ASX: IGO) was most prominent in the downgrades list.
As for price target changes, niobium tearaway WA Resources (ASX: WA1) took top honours with a whopping 128% upgrade to its price target from Argonaut Securities.
Typically, there are two major components of a broker’s view:
Rating: A call to action, usually along the lines of buy, hold, or sell, but depending on the broker’s ratings system, can be somewhere in between (e.g., accumulate or add is typically between a hold and a buy).
Price target: The price at which the broker expects the stock will be trading at some point in the future, generally within the next 12 months.
Broker upgrades since Monday 29 April
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amcor (AMC) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $15.40 | 2.0% |
Car Group (CAR) | Barrenjoey | Overweight | Neutral | $39.00 | 12.1% |
Collins Foods (CKF) | Jarden | Overweight | Neutral | $10.25 | 10.3% |
Coles Group (COL) | CLSA | Outperform | Underperform | $17.60 | 9.1% |
Coles Group (COL) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $18.25 | 13.1% |
Computershare (CPU) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $29.70 | 11.8% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | Macquarie | Neutral | Underweight | $0.15 | 7.1% |
Droneshield (DRO) | Bell Potter | Buy | Hold | $1.00 | 13.0% |
Helloworld Travel (HLO) | Ord Minnett | Buy | Accumulate | $3.10 | 28.6% |
Light & Wonder (LNW) | Jarden | Buy | Overweight | $164.00 | 14.1% |
Mirvac Group (MGR) | CLSA | Underperform | Sell | $2.02 | -2.7% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $83.00 | 7.3% |
Monash IVF Group (MVF) | Wilsons | Overweight | Marketweight | $1.58 | 6.0% |
Opthea (OPT) | E&P | Neutral | Negative | $0.70 | 5.3% |
Qube Holdings (QUB) | Jarden | Buy | Overweight | $3.70 | 4.4% |
TPG Telecom (TPG) | CLSA | Outperform | Underperform | $5.00 | 12.7% |
TPG Telecom (TPG) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $5.10 | 15.0% |
Vicinity Centres (VCX) | Barrenjoey | Overweight | Negative | $2.20 | 14.0% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | Barrenjoey | Neutral | Underweight | $28.50 | 58.2% |
WA1 Resources (WA1) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | Hold | $22.88 | 27.0% |
Broker upgrades since Monday 29 April
From the brokers:
Macquarie upgrades Amcor (ASX: AMC) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL
Broker noted that the company's third quarter earnings per share (EPS) was 6.6% above expectations on “improving volume trends along with strong cost saving benefits”.
Bell Potter upgrades DroneShield (ASX: DRO) to BUY from HOLD
Follows the company’s successful completion of a $100 million placement to help fund the development of its Handheld defeat and On-The-Move systems
Improved confidence in the company’s sales pipeline sees broker upgrade 2024 revenue forecasts by 16%, 2025 by 20%, and 2026 by 29%
“DroneShield is now well placed to capitalise on the growing demand for C-UAS solutions in response to current global tensions and the evolution of modern warfare”
Price target is $1
Morgan Stanley upgrades Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) to OVERWEIGHT from EQUAL-WEIGHT
Broker sees the imminent ramp up of the company’s Ashburton project as a “key driver for a profitable iron ore business alongside long life, bankable mining services volumes”
The proposed partial sale of the company’s toll road “provides the required balance sheet flexibility to see the ramp-up through”
Price target is raised to $83 from $67
Broker downgrades since Monday 29 April
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aeris Resources (AIS) | Macquarie | Underweight | Neutral | $0.20 | -21.6% |
Ampol (ALD) | Barrenjoey | Neutral | Overweight | $37.76 | 6.5% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | Barrenjoey | Underweight | Neutral | $0.80 | -32.4% |
IGO (IGO) | CLSA | Outperform | Buy | $8.75 | 11.3% |
IGO (IGO) | E&P | Neutral | Positive | $9.00 | 14.4% |
IGO (IGO) | JP Morgan | Underweight | Neutral | $6.30 | -19.9% |
Imdex (IMD) | Citi | Neutral | Buy | $2.20 | 6.8% |
Matrix Composites & Engineering (MCE) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $0.42 | 20.0% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | Jefferies | Underweight | Hold | $27.00 | -20.1% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | Citi | Neutral | Buy | $1.10 | 11.1% |
The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $0.50 | 14.9% |
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $14.50 | -3.1% |
Broker downgrades since Monday 29 April
From the brokers:
Macquarie downgrades Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS) to UNDERWEIGHT from NEUTRAL
Broker noted “mixed” performance in third quarter results, with copper production 7% below expectations
Costs and gold production were positives, however, as was the company’s maintenance of cost and production guidance
The price target is increased 33% to $0.20 on “near-term EPS shift” and Mt Colin mine life extension, but broker believes recent price strength leaves the stock overvalued
Citi downgrades Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC) to Neutral from BUY
The broker notes a largely “in-line” third quarter update
Lifts price target substantially from $0.80 to $1.10, but based upon recent price appreciation in company’s shares, there is little upside value left
Biggest broker price target changes since Monday 29 April
Company | Broker | Rating | New PT | Old PT | PT Change% | PT Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA1 Resources (WA1) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | $22.88 | $10.23 | 123.7% | 27.0% |
Johns Lyng Group (JLG) | Bell Potter | Hold | $6.20 | $3.60 | 72.2% | 7.0% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | Citi | Neutral | $1.10 | $0.80 | 37.5% | 11.1% |
Aeris Resources (AIS) | Macquarie | Underweight | $0.20 | $0.15 | 33.3% | -21.6% |
Aeris Resources (AIS) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.30 | $0.23 | 30.4% | 17.6% |
Alkane Resources (ALK) | Bell Potter | Buy | $1.25 | $1.00 | 25.0% | 113.7% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $83.00 | $67.00 | 23.9% | 7.3% |
Immutep (IMM) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.80 | $0.65 | 23.1% | 70.2% |
Computershare (CPU) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $29.70 | $24.50 | 21.2% | 11.8% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | Macquarie | Neutral | $31.20 | $26.00 | 20.0% | 6.3% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | Citi | Buy | $17.00 | $14.50 | 17.2% | 2.5% |
Jupiter Mines (JMS) | Macquarie | Outperform | $0.35 | $0.30 | 16.7% | 19.9% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | Macquarie | Outperform | $10.50 | $9.00 | 16.7% | 7.5% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | Citi | Buy | $4.50 | $3.90 | 15.4% | 19.5% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Bell Potter | Buy | $85.00 | $75.00 | 13.3% | 9.9% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $34.50 | $31.00 | 11.3% | 6.1% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | $8.40 | $7.65 | 9.8% | -14.0% |
Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $5.60 | $5.10 | 9.8% | 11.6% |
Monash IVF Group (MVF) | Wilsons | Overweight | $1.58 | $1.45 | 9.0% | 59.6% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $10.00 | $9.20 | 8.7% | 2.4% |
Car Group (CAR) | Barrenjoey | Overweight | $39.00 | $36.00 | 8.3% | 12.1% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | UBS | Neutral | US$195 | US$180 | 8.3% | n/a |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | Citi | Sell | $7.90 | $7.30 | 8.2% | -19.1% |
Wesfarmers (WES) | UBS | Neutral | $66.00 | $61.00 | 8.2% | -5.4% |
Macquarie Group (MQG) | UBS | Neutral | $200.00 | $185.00 | 8.1% | 6.1% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | Bell Potter | Buy | $2.80 | $2.60 | 7.7% | 33.0% |
Bubs Australia (BUB) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.15 | $0.14 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | UBS | Sell | $30.00 | $28.00 | 7.1% | -11.3% |
Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC) | Goldman Sachs | Buy | $5.35 | $5.00 | 7.0% | 6.6% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | RBC Capital Markets | Sector Perform | US$200 | US$187 | 7.0% | n/a |
Wesfarmers (WES) | CLSA | Underperform | $64.30 | $60.40 | 6.5% | -7.8% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $33.70 | $31.80 | 6.0% | 3.6% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | Citi | Buy | $36.00 | $34.00 | 5.9% | 10.7% |
Coventry Group (CYG) | Bell Potter | Buy | $1.90 | $1.80 | 5.6% | 31.0% |
Wesfarmers (WES) | Macquarie | Neutral | $64.60 | $61.20 | 5.6% | -7.4% |
Block (SQ2) | UBS | Buy | $100.00 | $95.00 | 5.3% | -9.7% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $10.25 | $9.75 | 5.1% | 4.9% |
Macquarie Group (MQG) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $205.00 | $195.00 | 5.1% | 8.7% |
Biggest broker price target changes since Monday 29 April
From the brokers:
Citi raises Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) price target to $17.00 from $14.50
The broker has upgraded its resource valuations for the company due to higher enterprise value (EV)/Resource comparisons as sentiment towards uranium improves
Broker also notes recent passing of bill to ban Russian uranium imports by US Senate, will assist in pushing uranium market towards the brokers “bull case scenario” that forecasts an average uranium price of US$151/lb in 2025 (versus spot around US$90/lb)
BUY rating retained
Citi raises Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) price target to $4.50 from $3.90
Evolution Mining is the broker’s preferred ASX gold sector exposure after quarterly results
Long term gold price forecast lift from US$1,600/oz to US$1,850/oz “materially lifts earnings”
BUY rating retained
