The 10 most shorted ASX stocks plus the biggest risers and fallers – Week 47

Welcome back to the Short Seller Series – A recap of the most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX and those experiencing significant changes to short interest over the past week.

Short selling data is four days behind today's date because reporting is not mandatory until three business days after the trade. The tables below will compare:

• Week-on-week changes between 12 and 19 November 2024

• Month-on-month changes between 22 October and 19 November 2024

Most Shorted

Key takeaways:

• Short interest in lithium and uranium stocks appears to have peaked, at least for now

• Pilbara Minerals' short interest is trading down more than 5 percentage points from its 9 August peak of 22.35%. Even with substantial short covering, the stock remains 18% below the peak date

• Uranium stocks have experienced a similar pattern, with short interest easing 1-2 percentage points over the past week. Stocks like Boss Energy and Paladin Energy continue to trend lower despite the reduced short positions

Rising Shorts

Key takeaways:

• Genesis Minerals stands out as one of the most shorted gold stocks in the market. Its short interest fluctuated from around 9.0% at the start of the year to approximately 7% for most of the year, and has recently begun ticking higher. The WA-based gold miner has ambitious expansion plans, aiming to double its gold output from 134,000 ounces in FY24 to over 300,000 ounces by FY28. However, the company is expected to experience cash outflow in the first half of FY25 due to heavy investments and lower production, with a projected recovery in the second half.

• Short interest appears to be concentrating on companies that have recently announced negative catalysts, particularly those with poor FY24 results and earnings downgrades. Two notable examples include:

  • John Lyng experienced a dramatic 27% one-day selloff on 27 August following a mixed FY24 result. Although EBITDA marginally exceeded guidance, the company's core business earnings fell short of expectations, and operating cash flow was notably weak. The near-term outlook, characterised by modest revenue growth but declining margins, caught the market by surprise and triggered a significant selloff.

  • Healius similarly saw its shares plummet 16% on 15 November after issuing a poor trading update. The company guided towards a mere $4 million EBIT for the first half of FY25, compared to the $25 million consensus. Management attributed the low profitability to "investment in growing revenue," including changes to opening hours and staffing aimed at stabilising the company's eroding market share.

Most covered

Key takeaways:

• Several heavily shorted names, including Paladin Energy, Sayona Mining, IDP Education, and Boss Energy, have experienced a pullback in short interest. However, most of these stocks continue to trend lower, with underlying fundamentals remaining largely unchanged – lithium prices remain weak, and IDP's regulatory challenges persist