Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to slip, S&P 500 claws back early losses, Commodities whipsaw

ASX 200 futures are down 27 pts (-0.29%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mixed but bounced off worst levels

• S&P 500 dipped as much as 1.19% in early trade, finished the session marginally positive

• Volatile overnight session for commodities, most of which traded sharply higher on Monday morning but set to close the session off best levels

• Markets shrugging off US/Israeli attacks on Iran, though ongoing strikes, jump in oil price and inflation concerns may continue to weigh on equities

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 03 Mar 26, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,882	+0.04%
Dow Jones	48,905	-0.15%
NASDAQ Comp	22,749	+0.36%
Russell 2000	2,655	+0.85%
Country Indices
Canada	34,541	+0.59%
China	4,183	+0.47%
Germany	24,638	-2.56%
Hong Kong	26,060	-2.14%
India	80,239	-1.29%
Japan	58,057	-1.35%
United Kingdom	10,780	-1.20%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,335.24	+1.08%
Copper	5.91	-1.50%
WTI Oil	71.62	+6.86%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7089	-0.38%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	69,087	+5.74%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,866	+6.12%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.048	+2.17%
VIX	21.35	+7.51%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 clawed back early losses to close at breakeven (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mixed but bounced off session lows

• S&P 500 dipped 1.19% in early trade, so fairly strong reversal, where most sectors bounced off session lows

• Commodity volatility also kicking in, with gold rallying as much as 2.6% in early trade (yesterday morning) but whipsawed into negative territory, and now back up ~1%

• Markets shrugged off the US/Israeli attacks on Iran, a move that is somewhat consistent with how equities tend to look past geopolitical events

• Though oil price move sparking some inflation concerns, with the US 10-year up 8 bps to 4.03%, a sizeable bounce from a near one-and-a-half year low

• Global equities brace for volatility as US-Israeli strikes on Iran trigger regional retaliation (BBG)

• Oil shock from US-Iran conflict disrupting tanker traffic, this is main risk to JPMorgan's weaker dollar outlook (BBG)

• Safe-haven yen and Swiss franc gain in flight to safety (RT)

• Oil prices could top US$90 a barrel on Iran conflict then retreating sharply (USA)

• Iran targeting infrastructure including Qatar LNG plant, Ras Tanura refinery, Amazon data center, and Dubai port (BBG)

• Major Saudi refinery, Iraqi Kurdish and Israeli oil, gas fields shut amid Mideast strikes (RT)

• Venezuelan crude exports surged in February 2026, doubling from January levels amid US oversight (EN)

• European natural gas prices surge on Middle East conflict fears of Hormuz disruption (BBG)

STOCKS

• Paramount Skydance plans to merge Paramount+ and HBO Max into one streaming platform (NBC)

• Nvidia to invest $2bn in both Coherent and Lumentum, two photonics companies (CNBC)

• Apple launches lower cost iPhone 17e and a new iPad Air powered by its M4 chip (CNBC)

• Claude becomes top US app after Pentagon blacklisted Anthropic for refusing to drop AI safeguards on military use (AX)

• BYD February vehicle sales decline at fastest pace since pandemic (RT)

TARIFFS

• ECB's Nagel questions USD safe-haven status as Euro gains (BBG)

IRAN

• Trump says US will do "whatever it takes" to achieve its Iran objectives, notes operation tracking ahead of schedule (BBG)

• Trump says biggest surprise of the Iran conflict has been Tehran's attacks on Arab countries (NW)

• UAE and Qatar are privately lobbying allies persuade President Trump to reach an off-ramp with Iran (BBG)

• Iran's security chief says Tehran won't negotiate with US (BBG)

• Trump suggests Iran regime change could mirror Venezuela model (NYT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Iran conflict set to weigh on upcoming Xi-Trump summit as Beijing condemns attacks (BBG)

• Pakistan-Afghan casualties rise as militaries clash further (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US February manufacturing PMI climbs to 52.4 vs. 51.8 consensus, down slightly from 52.6 in the previous month, commentary flagged price pressures, ongoing demand challenges but solid order books and backlog (BBG)

• China's new home prices fall at fastest pace in three years (RT)

• China's five-year plan set to fix links in commodity chain, targets critical minerals dominance and renewable energy goals (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 futures point towards a wobbly start, though yesterday's price action was rather bullish (+0.03% from session low of -0.86%). Volatility to be expected amid more US-Iran newsflow, oil price spike could renew inflation fears (I filled up my car yesterday and the line was massive)

• Life360 reports 4Q25 revenue up 26% to $146m, adjusted EBITDA up 53% to $32.4m vs. $26.8m ests (21% beat), global MAUs of 95.8m in-line with recent guidance, FY26 MAUs guidance reaffirmed at 20% year-on-year, adjusted EBITDA of $128-138m, in-line with $132.8m ests at the midpoint (360)

• Rio Tinto advances gallium metal R&D project in partnership with the Government of Canada (RIO)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Uranium: Global X Uranium ETF up 3.8% overnight to a one-month high. Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust (a good barometer for uranium prices) gained 3.3%. Cameco also signed a major 22-million-pound uranium commitment with India, valued at C$2.6 billion.

• Commodity volatility: High-flying commodities starting to experience wild price swings amid this Middle East ramp up. Silver set to finish the overnight session down 4.5% despite being up 2.8% in early trade. Nickel, copper, aluminium and more, also experiencing similar fading price action.

BROKER MOVES

• Magellan Financial Group upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $9 from $8.80 (JPM)

• Magellan Financial Group upgraded to  Equal-weight from Underweight; target up to $9.20 from $8.35 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 3 Mar: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.033, Ashley Services Group (ASH) – $0.014, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.065, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.045, Dicker Data (DDR) – $0.115, Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – $0.25, Downer EDI (DOW) – $0.129, EDU Holdings (EDU) – $0.03, Embark Early Education (EVO) – $0.015, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.20, HMC Capital (HMC) – $0.06, Ironbark Balanced Income (IBC) – $0.013, Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.12, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.075, Qualitas (QAL) – $0.035, QUBE Holdings (QUB) – $0.053, REA Group (REA) – $1.24, REDOX (RDX) – $0.065, SGM (SGM) – $0.14

• Wed 4 Mar: Capral (CAA) – $0.30, EVT (EVT) – $0.18, IDP Education (IEL) – $0.03, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.033, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.085, Monash IVF Group (MVF) – $0.012, Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG) – $0.02, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.21, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.20, SGH (SGH) – $0.32, Shaver Shop Group (SSG) – $0.048, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.02, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.45, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.25, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.16, Solvar (SVR) – $0.085, TPC Consolidated (TPC) – $0.20, Woolworths Group (WOW) – $0.45, Worley (WOR) – $0.25

• Thu 5 Mar: AEF Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – $0.08, Ampol (ALD) – $0.60, BHP Group (BHP) – $1.03, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.041, EBOS Group (EBO) – $0.427, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.179, Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) – $0.029, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.03, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.031, L1 Global Long Short Fund (GLS) – $0.01, L1 Group (L1G) – $0.01, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Lovisa Holdings (LOV) – $0.53, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.053, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.49, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.13, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.25, NZME (NZM) – $0.051, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.05, Praemium (PPS) – $0.013, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.78, RIO Tinto (RIO) – $3.602, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) – $0.335, SKS Technologies Group (SKS) – $0.035, South32 (S32) – $0.055, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.033, Tribeca Global Natural Resources (TGF) – $0.05, Woodside Energy Group (WDS) – $0.834

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.