Morning Wrap: ASX 200 set for a massive bounce, S&P 500 stages big comeback, Oil prices reverse lower

ASX 200 futures are up 184 pts (+2.14%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks reversed earlier declines, closing the session higher and near best levels

• WTI marked one of its largest intraday moves on record, closing the session 6.7% lower to US$85.07, marking a 28.8% decline from session highs of US$119.48

• Trump said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much" and considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz

• Bond yields and VIX both down sharply from session highs, while commodity prices reversed from session lows

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 10 Mar 26, 8:22am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,796	+0.83%
Dow Jones	47,741	+0.50%
NASDAQ Comp	22,696	+1.38%
Russell 2000	2,554	+1.12%
Country Indices
Canada	33,189	+0.32%
China	4,097	-0.67%
Germany	23,409	-0.77%
Hong Kong	25,408	-1.35%
India	77,566	-1.71%
Japan	52,729	-5.20%
United Kingdom	10,250	-0.34%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,138.56	-0.39%
Copper	5.85	+1.64%
WTI Oil	84.94	-6.41%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7073	-0.03%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	69,084	+2.75%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,872	+3.59%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.136	+0.07%
VIX	25.5	-13.53%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed slightly off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks reversed earlier declines to finish higher and near best levels

• S&P 500 clawed back a 1.54% dip in early trade, largely reflecting gains from Tech, retail-investor favourites, growth/momentum and Staples

• VIX remains elevated (25.5) but well-off session highs of 35

• Today’s big story – WTI down ~7% (US$85) after rallying as much as 30.9% intraday to a high of US$119

• Oil prices experienced a massive reversal after Trump told CBS News that the war with Iran could be over soon, noting the war is “very complete” and that the US is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame

• Trump said he is considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz to secure energy trade routes, noting “ships are moving through now” 

• Bond yields reversed sharply as well, with the US 10-year up as much as 7 bps to 4.21% in early trade, now settling at 4.09%  

• Market flows are increasingly shifting toward a stagflation scenario amid Iran conflict (YF)

• JPMorgan is forecasting 10% correction in S&P 500 if Iran war remains unresolved (BBG)

• CTAs max out on bullish oil bets, now 100% long, up from 82% on Friday (BBG)

• JPMorgan strategists turn bullish on US IG bonds, reverse November call for spread widening (BBG)

• Hedge funds increase short positions on US equities amid Middle East tensions (BBG)

• Mainland investors purchase record amount of Hong Kong shares Monday, reversing last week's selloff (BBG)

• Aluminum hits highest level in nearly four years as supply outlook worsens (BBG)

ENERGY

• Trump says Iran war was “very complete, pretty much”, noting Iran has “no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force” (BBG)

• Trump considering options to curb oil prices including restricting US exports, intervening in futures markets, waiving some federal taxes (RT)

• G7 energy ministers said they are ready to take measures to support global energy supply, including releasing strategic oil reserves (BBG)

• Saudi Aramco reportedly reducing output at two oilfields, sources say (RT)

• Average national cost of gas is now $3.48 per gallon, up 48 cents since last week and 58 cents from a month ago (YF)

• Bessent suggests US may lift sanctions on more Russian oil following recent 30-day waiver for stranded crude sales to India (RT)

• European gas prices surge 30% as Middle East conflict disrupts shipments of seaborne supplies (BBG)

• QatarEnergy delays major LNG expansion to at least 2027 following drone attack on Ras Laffan plant (BBG)

STOCKS

• Anthropic files suit against Trump administration after being blacklisted by Pentagon (CNBC)

• Ticketmaster parent Live Nation reaches settlement with DoJ over antitrust concerns (CBS)

• Microsoft and Anthropic team up to bring Claude Cowork to Microsoft 365 (YF)

IRAN

• Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Iran's supreme leader escalates Middle East tensions and global market volatility (BBG)

• Mojtaba Khamenei appointment suggests no swift end to war in Middle East (FT)

TARIFFS

• Trump's upcoming China visit unlikely to yield significant trade or investment breakthroughs (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Traders ramp up rate hike bets for ECB, BoE as energy prices fuel fears of inflation surge (BBG)

• Middle East conflict forces central banks to re-evaluate monetary policy strategies (RT)

• Middle East tensions complicate monetary policy for Asian central banks (NK)

ECONOMY

• IMF warns Middle East conflict risks creating a 'new normal' for global economy (BBG)

• China's consumer inflation surges to a three-year high due to holiday spending, but producer deflation persists (RT)

• Eurozone investor confidence declines in March amid concerns over Middle East conflict (BBG)

• German industrial orders and output decline unexpectedly in January, signaling economic weakness (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Greatland Resources reaffirms FY26 gold production guidance, trending towards upper end of 260-310koz (GGP)

• Nuix non-executive Chairman Robert Mactier purchases ~75,000 shares (NXL)

• Pantoro reports 1H26 NPAT up 754% to $56.4m, lowers FY26 guidance to 86-92koz vs. prior guidance of lower end of 100-110koz (PNR)

• Westgold Resources approves FID to expand Higginsville Processing Hub from 1.6Mpta to 2.6Mtpa (WGX)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• A massive reversal: Wow, that oil price reversal will go down in the history books. This was the largest reversal on record (excluding the 20-21 April 2020 move where prices went negative). Pretty much all commodities off session lows (e.g. gold down 0.6% vs. low of -3.0%) and yields finished red (e.g. Aussie 10-year spiked as much as 11 bps to 5.00%, finished the session down 3 bps to 4.855%). Volatility remains elevated, but an encouraging overnight session. This is why you often see some of the market's best and worst sessions take place right next to each other. Indices and stocks still have a lot of work cut out for them after such a destabilising move, with many now back below the 50-day moving average and breaking below recent trading ranges.

BROKER MOVES

• Seek downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $18.50 from $19.50 (MQG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 10 Mar: Adairs (ADH) – $0.055, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.035, CSL (CSL) – $1.837, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.04, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.83, Hitech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.045, Iress (IRE) – $0.13, Liberty Financial Group (LFG) – $0.075, Nido Education (NDO) – $0.022, PRL Global (PRG) – $0.02, Qantas Airways (QAN) – $0.198, Vault Minerals (VAU) – $0.07

• Wed 11 Mar: Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Brambles (BXB) – $0.327, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.034, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.003, Finbar Group (FRI) – $0.025, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.017, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.095, Kip McGrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.01, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.016, Peet (PPC) – $0.065, Tasmea (TEA) – $0.06, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.011, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.021

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Magellan Financial Group (MFG), Sports Entertainment (SEG), Waypoint REIT (WPR)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Westpac Consumer Confidence

• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence

• 2:00 pm: China Balance of Trade