Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps on bearish US lead, high flyers copper and uranium pull back, tech sags again

Fri 05 Apr 24, 5:51pm (AEST)

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 44.0 points lower, down 0.56%.

It was another tough day at the office for Aussie investors. But let me put this out there, I bet it wasn't as bad as you expected given the lead we had from Wall St, right?

Yesterday I referred to investors in gold, copper, and uranium stocks as "lucky". Today, that list was narrowed to just gold, if you get what I mean.

Unlucky areas of the market, like lithium and iron ore, continued to be unlucky, as was pretty much everything else. On that cheery note, for the last time this week...

Let’s dive in!


Today in Review

Fri 05 Apr 24, 4:26pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,773.3 -0.56%
All Ords 8,026.0 -0.58%
Small Ords 3,069.9 -0.95%
All Tech 2,982.8 -1.37%
Emerging Companies 2,194.0 -0.32%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6574 -0.21%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,206.25 +0.17%
Dow Jones 38,950.0 +0.09%
Nasdaq 18,118.5 +0.23%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Energy 10,917.3 -0.02%
Utilities 8,395.4 -0.13%
Financials 7,353.5 -0.37%
Consumer Discretionary 3,509.1 -0.50%
Industrials 7,082.6 -0.58%
Real Estate 3,684.4 -0.61%
Health Care 42,197.3 -0.63%
Communication Services 1,543.7 -0.65%
Consumer Staples 12,128.3 -0.69%
Materials 17,890.9 -0.80%
Information Technology 2,168.7 -1.41%

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Markets

S&P ASX 200 (XJO) Intraday Chart 5 Apr 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 44.0 points lower at 7,773.3, 0.41% from its session low and 0.57% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 70 to 205.

For the week, the XJO finished down 123.6 points or 1.59% lower.

It’s becoming a bit of a trend lately. The best performing sectors today were Gold (XGD) (+0.13%), Energy (XEJ) (-0.02%), and Utilities (XUJ) (-0.12%). When I say best performing, only Gold was up, while the other two were just down less than the rest.

As for the rest, there's also a nasty trend developing here, too. Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.4%) was the hardest hit again following on from sharp falls in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (see ChartWatch), and serial underperformer Materials (XMJ) (-0.80%) was a habitual second worst.

In Materials, most of the big falls were concentrated in high flying copper and uranium stocks which had their collective wings clipped. On the other hand, low flyers lithium and iron ore stocks, well, you know the drill... The table below summarises the carnage in the sector.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$2.55

-$0.18

-6.6%

+1.6%

-54.8%

Bougainville Copper 1 Kina (BOC)

$0.580

-$0.035

-5.7%

-21.6%

+75.8%

29METALS (29M)

$0.500

-$0.03

-5.7%

+33.3%

-53.8%

Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

$6.42

-$0.34

-5.0%

-22.1%

0%

Nexgen Energy (NXG)

$12.79

-$0.66

-4.9%

+7.8%

+113.9%

Develop Global (DVP)

$2.28

-$0.11

-4.6%

-8.1%

-22.5%

Paladin Energy (PDN)

$1.420

-$0.06

-4.1%

+17.4%

+118.5%

Deep Yellow (DYL)

$1.390

-$0.055

-3.8%

+10.3%

+155.0%

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

$8.74

-$0.33

-3.6%

+10.5%

+38.1%

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

$0.610

-$0.02

-3.2%

-14.1%

+2078.6%

Core Lithium (CXO)

$0.155

-$0.005

-3.1%

-35.4%

-82.2%

Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL)

$0.195

-$0.005

-2.5%

-11.4%

-78.1%

Sayona Mining (SYA)

$0.041

-$0.001

-2.4%

-2.4%

-79.5%

Metals Acquisition (MAC)

$20.60

-$0.46

-2.2%

+9.0%

0%

Boss Energy (BOE)

$5.03

-$0.1

-1.9%

+4.1%

+116.8%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$1.190

-$0.02

-1.7%

-6.7%

-22.0%

Mineral Resources (MIN)

$70.16

-$0.97

-1.4%

+9.6%

-12.9%

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

$3.77

-$0.05

-1.3%

-8.0%

-4.3%

Rio Tinto (RIO)

$120.55

-$1.26

-1.0%

-3.4%

+0.3%

BHP Group (BHP)

$44.35

-$0.4

-0.9%

-0.6%

-6.1%

IGO (IGO)

$7.23

-$0.06

-0.8%

-6.5%

-42.7%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$3.95

-$0.03

-0.8%

+29.1%

+172.4%

The buck stopped here...today...on copper and uranium stocks. Lithium was just lithium

The bearish lead from Wall St was part tantrum over comments by a Federal Reserve official who hinted there may not be any interest rate cuts this year if the inflation picture didn't warrant it (duh!), but also part due to investors scrambling to the sidelines prior to a major employment report due in New York due tonight (see Economy).


ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P ASX 200 XJO
ST uptrend ribbon is providing dynamic support for now...

I think it's relevant to round out the week with a quick check-up on on the local benchmark. Today's black candle isn't fantastic, but it's far from a disaster either.

Firstly, I note the downward pointing shadow which indicates there was some tentative but optimistic excess demand towards the end of the session. This is no mean feat considering it's Friday, as well as the severity of declines on Wall St (see below), and also the event risk attached to this evening's release of March Non-Farm Payroll data in the US.

Also consider the short term uptrend ribbon did exactly what it's supposed to do, that is, it offered dynamic support. Despite the nervousness during the week, trends and price action remain intact and continue to indicate demand-side control.

For now.

Next week, watch out for any of these factors to signal the supply-side has taken control:

  1. A close below the short term uptrend ribbon

  2. An increase in the frequency of supply-side candles (i.e., those with black bodies and or upward pointing shadows)

  3. A confirmation of the 7911 peak as a major point of supply with the setting of falling peaks and falling troughs

Assuming the glass is half full and not empty. White candles in the short term trend ribbon will confirm a strengthening of demand-side control, and a close above 7911 would signal the bull market is strong as a, um, bull?

NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP)

NASDAQ Composite Index 4 April
Big black candle = Big trouble

This is where all the fuss is coming from! That was a nasty candle on the NASDAQ last night, and it was reflected in other major US indices like the S&P 500 and the broad-based Russell 2000.

Bad stuff from Thursday's technicals:

  1. Big black candle + close on low of session = motivated supply & likely more to come

  2. Close below 2-Apr trough = demand removal

  3. Close below short term uptrend ribbon = demand-side is losing short term price control

The only saving grace is the lack of volume, it was quite subdued, and this is typically not associated with a major turning point.

Basically, whilst supply was motivated, there wasn't a great deal of it, and it was more likely a case of "a bit" of motivated supply pushing into a demand vacuum.

I suspect the demand side got out of the way yesterday – which is uncharacteristic given their recent history of perpetuating the prevailing trend. I suspect they're hiding from something, most likely the March NFP data due tonight.

The next candle is super important. We want to see a strong demand-side showing after the event risk of NFP is out of the way. So, a big white candle and or a long downward pointing shadow.

The opposite will confirm the changing of the short term trend to down, and a new phase of supply side control. In particular, I wouldn't want to see a close below the 15862 point of demand.


Economy

Today

  • There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Friday

  • 23:30 USA March employment data

    • Non-Farm Employment Change (+205K forecast vs 275K previous)

    • Unemployment Rate (3.9% forecast vs 3.9% previous)

    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m (+0.3% forecast vs +0.1% previous)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +5.8% Mount Gibson Iron (MGX) - On Track for FY24 Shipping Guidance

  • +4.5% Cooper Energy (COE) - Continued positive response to Wednesday's Market Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term trend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +4.1% GQG Partners (GQG) - FUM as at 31 March 2024, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +3.8% Immutep (IMM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +3.4% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, 2 up days in a row in a mediocre market πŸ€”

  • +3.4% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - Riverina and Sand King Update, retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys and price target increased to $0.40 from $0.35, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +3.3% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, looks like it's trying to hold above/bounce off the long-term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.8% Emeco Holdings (EHL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term trend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.8% RPMGlobal Holdings (RUL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.5% Service Stream (SSM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.4% Evolution Mining (EVN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.3% Elders (ELD) - No news, upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie and price target increased to $10.45 from $7.12, retained at buy at Shaw and Partners, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.3% Macmahon Holdings (MAH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.2% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.2% AMP (AMP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term trend, long-term trend is transitioning from down to up πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +2.1% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

Trading lower

  • -7.4% Champion Iron (CIA) - No news, retained at buy at Citi, but broker cut price target to $8.60 from $9.60, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend, long-term trend is transitioning from up to down, closed below long-term uptrend ribbon which appears now confirmed as offering dynamic supply πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -7.1% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, gave up most of yesterday's gains πŸ€”

  • -6.9% Westgold Resources (WGX) - Continued negative response to Wednesday's Q3, FY24 Production Update, closed below short-term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -6.6% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long-term downtrend, closed below short-term uptrend ribbon, price action is falling peaks and falling troughs, candles predominantly supply side πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -5.7% 29METALS (29M) - Copper stocks broadly lower today, pullback from recent strength

  • -5.5% Capricorn Metals (CMM) - March 2024 Quarterly Production Update

  • -5.2% Pexa Group (PXA) - No news πŸ€”

  • -5.0% Arcadium Lithium (LTM) - Followed its NYSE counterpart's move on Thursday, rest of US lithium sector also lower, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -4.9% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - Uranium stocks broadly lower today, pullback from recent strength

  • -4.6% Develop Global (DVP) - Lithium stocks broadly lower today on weakness in US lithium stocks on Thursday, copper also broadly weaker, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -4.1% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Uranium stocks broadly lower today, pullback from recent strength


Broker Notes

  • AIC Mines (A1M) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80

  • Ampol (ALD) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $44.00 from $37.85

  • Bowen Coking Coal (BCB) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.23

  • Beach Energy (BPT) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.85

  • Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.75

  • Champion Iron (CIA) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.60 from $9.60

  • Cooper Energy (COE) downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $0.17 from $0.16

  • EBR Systems (EBR) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.43 from $1.30

  • Endeavour Group (EDV) initiated at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.94

  • Elders (ELD)

    • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.45 from $7.12

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $9.00

  • Immutep (IMM) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65

  • Lindsay Australia (LAU) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.60

  • Ora Banda Mining (OBM) retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.35

  • OOH!Media (OML) initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.05

  • Playside Studios (PLY) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80

  • Pro Medicus (PME) upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $152.68 from $94.09

  • Block (SQ2) downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $60.00 from $62.00

  • Suncorp Group (SUN)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.60

    • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $16.80

  • The Lottery Corporation (TLC) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.50


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
RGS Regeneus Ltd $0.012 +140.00%
HASR Hastings Technolo... $0.03 +57.90%
ENX Enegex Ltd $0.025 +38.89%
BNZ BENZ Mining Corp $0.17 +30.77%
EXR Elixir Energy Ltd $0.092 +29.58%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
FGR First Graphene Ltd $0.059 -24.36%
VAL Valor Resources Ltd $0.048 -22.58%
ZMI ZINC of Ireland NL $0.016 -20.00%
OLL Openlearning Ltd $0.017 -19.05%
CBY Canterbury Resour... $0.03 -18.92%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
HASR Hastings Technolo... $0.03 +57.90%
CDD Cardno Ltd $0.50 +26.58%
WWG Wiseway Group Ltd $0.135 +17.39%
AMI Aurelia Metals Ltd $0.175 +9.38%
LV1 Live Verdure Ltd $0.645 +7.50%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
VAL Valor Resources Ltd $0.048 -22.58%
BPM BPM Minerals Ltd $0.058 -17.14%
EE1 EARTHS Energy Ltd $0.012 -14.29%
M2R Miramar Resources... $0.012 -14.29%
EWC Energy World Corp... $0.013 -13.33%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
WA1 WA1 Resources Ltd $14.48 +1.12%
FGX Future Generation... $1.175 -1.26%
CPU Computershare Ltd $26.25 -2.16%
MQGPD Macquarie Group Ltd $106.10 +0.52%
IXJ Ishares Global He... $135.76 -1.19%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
CPM Cooper Metals Ltd $0.115 +4.55%
SPK Spark New Zealand... $4.37 +0.46%
FWD Fleetwood Ltd $1.48 +4.97%
ORA Orora Ltd $2.21 -2.64%
AESG Ishares Global Ag... $95.32 +0.34%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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