Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 marks worst session since mid-Feb

The S&P 500 tumbled from session highs overnight amid speculation of an Iranian attack on Israel as well as higher oil prices, hawkish Fedspeak and overbought conditions. Gold snapped a seven day win streak, Woodside's shareholders were advised to vote against its climate strategy, Taiwan's earthquake is expected to cause a short-term disruption for chips and the Fed's Kashkari says the Fed might not cut rates in 2024.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 tumbles from a strong open (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower, reversed an early session gain of 0.87% to finish at worst levels

• S&P 500 finished the session down 2.0% from its intraday high

• VIX spikes to its highest close since 2 November 2023

• Gold marked its first red session after a seven-day run into record territory

• WTI crude settles near US$87 a barrel amid latest Middle East headlines

• Market reverted to risk-off attitude amid a possible Iran retaliation from a presumed Israeli strike in Syria, higher commodity prices and still hawkish Fedspeak

• US bond yields up as strong economic data and inflation worries compel investors to doubt Fed easing path (Reuters)

• Dollar strength fueling concerns at other central banks and prompting more intervention (Reuters)

• Yield gap and intervention uncertainty among reasons blamed for yen weakness post-BOJ rate hike (Bloomberg)

• Copper hits a 14-month high on supply disruptions as well as recovery hopes (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set for a relatively heavy session following a risk-off overnight session

• Key themes to look out for on Friday include resilience among energy stocks, underperformance of tech and growth sectors and uranium weakness (uranium ETF sold off 3.7% overnight)

• APM Human Services International holder Madison Dearborn Partners (~45% stake) considering bid to privatise company (The Australian)

• Bluescope dibs at South32’s Illawarra Metallurgical Coal (AFR)

• Cettire admits to tax queries from Texas authorities (AFR)

• Seven Group takeover bid for Boral extended to 18 April (SVW)

• Woodside shareholders should vote against the re-election of chairman Richard Goyder and against its climate strategy, says advisory firm CGI Lewis (AFR)

BROKER NOTES

• Ampol upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; raised target to $44.0 from $37.85 (JPMorgan)

• Beach Energy downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target increased to $1.95 from $1.85 (JPMorgan)

• Block downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight; target cut to $60 from $62 (Morgan Stanley)

• Cooper Energy downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target increased to 17 cents from 16 cents (JPMorgan)

• Elders upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; raised target to $10.45 from $7.12 (Macquarie)

• Ora Banda Mining upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy; raised target to 40 cents from 35 cents (Euroz Hartleys) 

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Google considering charging for new premium AI-based search product (FT)

• Google mulls HubSpot acquisition (Reuters)

• Ford to delay production of an all-electric SUVs and trucks, to focus on hybrids (CNBC)

• Levi's beats and raises guidance (CNBC)

• ExxonMobil update flags Q1 drag from softer LNG prices and derivatives (Reuters)

• Earthquake in Taiwan may cause short-term supply disruptions for chips and display panels, but impact expected to be limited (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Richmond Fed President Barkin says early 2024 data has been less encouraging and the Fed has time to wait before initiating any cuts (Reuters)

• Fed’s Kashkari floats possibility of no rate cuts this year (Bloomberg)

• Fed's Kugler expects disinflation without big rise in unemployment, still sees rate cuts this year (Bloomberg)

• Bank of Mexico board members warn against rushing rate cuts (Reuters)

• India’s Central Bank expected to leave policy unchanged Friday as rate cut hopes dim amid strong growth, persistent inflation (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Iran officials say retaliation for Israeli strike will be limited (Times of Israel)

• Biden tells Israels' Netanyahu an "immediate ceasefire" is essential (White House)

• Blinken says Ukraine will eventually join NATO (Reuters)

• Yellen to warn China about excess capacity global economy cannot absorb (Reuters)

• Japan and Philippines discussing deploying Japanese troops to counter China's military activity in the region (FT)

• NATO chief's €100bn plan for Ukraine faces obstacles (Politico)

ECONOMY

• US initial jobless claims increased to a two-month high (Reuters)

• Eurozone final PMI shows return to growth for economy (Sharecast)

• Swiss inflation unexpectedly cools in March (Reuters)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 5 April: Gowing Bros (GOW) – $0.03

• Mon 8 April: None

• Tue 9 April: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.24

• Wed 10 April:

• Thu 11 April:  Cosol (COS) – $0.01, Duxton Water (D20) – $0.036

• Fri 12 April: Kogan (KGN) – $0.075 

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Ambertech (AMO) – $0.01, AUB Group (AUB) – $0.20, Cue Energy (CUE) – $0.02, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.02, Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) – $0.04, Joyce Corp (JYC) – $0.11, CTI Logistics (CLX) – $0.05, Monash IVF (MVF) – $0.025, Pacific Smiles (PSQ) – $0.02, Shriro (SHM) – $0.02, Wisetech (WTGC) – $0.077, Auckland International Airport (AIA) – $0.06 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade (Feb)

• 11:30 pm: Canada Unemployment Rate (Mar)

• 11:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Mar)

• 11:30 pm: US Unemployment Rate (Mar)