Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides as investors panic sell gold and silver stocks, but critical minerals and uranium stocks also tagged

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 64.7 points lower, down 0.71%.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-8.5%) is easily the best sector in the Australian stock market this year – but today it was total carnage 😱. If you’ve been watching my ChartWatch Markets articles, you had a couple of days warning that the supply moving into the gold and silver charts – but today’s moves in the ASX gold sector were extreme even for the moves in those underlying commodities over the last few days...

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 64.7 points lower at 9,030.0, 0.72% from its session high and a not a total write off 0.35% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a rather comprehensive 96 to 169.

Fund flows: Precious metals carnage

Woodside Energy Group (WDS) (+3.5%) was the best performing stock in the ASX 200. Just let that sink in. Yes, it means something wasn’t quite right with proceedings today! Hey, not to take anything away from Woodside (today's gain due to a positive reaction to its third quarter results), just that it’s been consistently one of the worst stocks in the benchmark – along with a dour performance in the broader Energy (XEJ) (+1.3%) sector.

And now we move to the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-8.5%) – easily the best sector in the Australian stock market this year – and it was total carnage. If you’ve been watching my ChartWatch Markets articles, you had a couple of days warning that the supply moving into the gold and silver charts – but today’s moves in the ASX gold sector were extreme even for the moves in those underlying commodities over the last few days. "High beta". It means live and die by the sword! Today is a timely reminder to keep an eye on correlated risk within our portfolios (hey, I’m not saying this is easy when the best setups are crowding in one sector!).

Gold dragged on Resources (XJR) (-2.7%), where more broadly, base metals, critical metals, and uranium stocks were tarred with the same “cut risk to precious metals” brush. Hot money moves into and out of sectors quickly. Paladin Energy (PDN) (-5.3%), Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) (-4.3%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-4.3%), Boss Energy (BOE) (-4.0%), Alcoa Corp. (AAI) (-3.8%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (-3.7%), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-3.3%), South32 (S32) (-3.1%), and Mineral Resources (MIN) (-2.7%) were notable casualties here.

Financials (XFJ) (+0.1%), led by the Big 4 Banks limited the damage at index level, each showing modest gains. It’s not unusual to see money flow from Resources into these stalwarts.

High-PE Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.4%) had a better day today than recent showings, but possibly due to some cash flowing back from low-PE Resources (because the high-PE to low-PE flow was very strong prior to today).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

An odd trading session. 🤔

Not one I’d ordinarily expect based on the MOTN (More Often Than Not) associated with yesterday’s candle, and indeed, the dozen or so candles prior to that. Not to mention the impeccable short and long term uptrends and strong price action also in place…

But we don’t get to pick the next candle the market gives us – we’re definitely in the “like it or lump it” camp on that one!

Hey, by definition, MOTN means some of the time things aren’t going to pan out as we expected.

But it wasn’t a total write off today. There’s a decent downward pointing shadow there which indicates that the demand-side didn’t totally boycott proceedings today. Similarly, that the supply-side lacked some motivation and firepower as the day wore on.

The bottom line is this: Today’s candle isn’t ideal, but it changes nothing:

1. Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬆️ / ⬆️, widening (getting stronger), acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand = ✅

2. Price action: Rising peaks and rising troughs (i.e., supply removal and demand reinforcement) = ✅

3. Candles: Demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows) = ✅

I will grow increasingly concerned about the prospect of growing supply-side control if I see:

1. Candles: More supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows), particularly long ones = ⚠️

2. Price action: A lower peak to 9116, and or a lower trough to 8963 (i.e., supply reinforcement and demand removal) = ⚠️

3. Short term trend ribbon: A close below the short term trend ribbon presently 8921-8956 (i.e., the short term trend ribbon is no longer acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand) = ⚠️

View: Frustrating, yes, reason to manage my risk? No.Until I see at least some of the above, I'll remain FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8963 is the closest key point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price. Ultimately though, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Thursday

• No major economic announcements scheduled for Tuesday

Friday

• 01:00 USA September Existing Home Sales (4.06 million forecast 4.0 million in August)

• 11:05 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

Saturday

• 00:45 USA October Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs

  • Manufacturing: 51.9 forecast vs 52.0 in September

  • Services: 53.5 forecast vs 54.2 in September

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +21.6% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) - No news 🤔.

• +18.9% Weebit Nano (WBT) - Investor Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.5% Northern Minerals (NTU) - Continued positive response to 21-Oct NTU receives Letters of Interest/Support from US EXIM & EFA, upgraded to speculative buy from hold at Ord Minnett and price target raised to $0.07 from $0.04, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.1% Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) - Continued positive response to 21-Oct Judicial Approval for Penouta Acquisition, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.7% Dateline Resources (DTR) - Managing Director Invests $277K to Advance Colosseum.

• +9.9% VHM (VHM) - Continued positive response to 21-Oct VHM Secures Support from EFA and EXIM, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today.

• +8.8% Duratec (DUR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.5% Decidr AI Industries (DAI) - No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +8.3% Adairs (ADH) - Trading update, AGM Presentation 2025 and 2025 AGM Chair and Group CEO Addresses.

• +6.7% Stakk (SKK) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Fleetwood (FWD) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Focus Minerals (FML) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.2% Apiam Animal Health (AHX) - Apiam Enters Scheme Implementation Deed with Adamantem.

• +5.3% Beetaloo Energy Australia (BTL) - Appendix 5B Quarterly Cash Flow Report.

• +5.0% Cufe (CUF) - No news since 21-Oct Review Highlights High Grade Bismuth Intercepts at Orlando, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.6% Genusplus Group (GNP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.5% Praemium (PPS) - Continued positive response to 21-Oct Q1 FY2026 Update and Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.5% Woodside Energy Group (WDS) - Third Quarter 2025 Report, general strength across the broader Energy sector today.

Trading lower

• -24.3% Nova Minerals (NVA) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -14.1% G50 Corp (G50) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.9% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) - No news since 21-Oct US EXIM Bank Refreshes Funding Support, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.9% Sun Silver (SS1) - Appointment of Strategic Advisor - Dennis Lindgren, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.8% Torque Metals (TOR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.8% European Lithium (EUR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.5% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news since 21-Oct Export Finance Australia Update, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.4% Unico Silver (USL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -13.2% Victory Metals (VTM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -12.5% Findi (FND) - Continued negative response to 21-Oct FND October 2025 Business Update Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -12.5% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -12.2% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - Power Supply Contract Signed, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -12.0% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -11.6% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news since 21-Oct Mines & Money / IMARC 2025 Presentation, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

Broker Moves

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.70 from $10.65

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.45

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.50

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.40

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.37 from $0.38

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.42

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $37.00 from $32.50

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.00 from $30.50

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.56

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $43.00

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $48.10 from $48.20

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $48.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.00 from $42.00

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $45.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $45.00

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.13

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.20 from $8.50

Cettire (CTT)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $1.18

• Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.20

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.45 from $3.50

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.40 from $8.20

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.50

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $8.01 from $7.49

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.26

Genetic Signatures (GSS)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.55

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $135.00 from $125.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $104.20 from $103.30

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $121.00

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.16

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.20

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.15

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

MyState (MYS)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.98

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $24.40

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.80

Northern Minerals (NTU)

• Upgraded to speculative buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.07 from $0.04

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $18.60 from $18.30

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.10 from $13.90

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.65

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $24.50

Praemium (PPS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.00

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.15

Qoria (QOR)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.91 from $0.72

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.10 from $0.70

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.96 from $0.67

• Retained at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $1.14 from $0.85

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.80

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.20

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.50

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.70 from $3.35

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $37.75 from $36.50

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $33.00

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $121.35

Scans