Evening Wrap: ASX 200 on hold until after Fed meeting, energy stocks extend rally, gold stocks lose shine

The S&P/ASX 200 reached its zenith of 7738 just 26 minutes into trading today, and then it was a general trickle lower until the close.

The modest 43 point range and 7.4 point net loss, the near-equal number of gainers versus losers, and the fact that no major ASX sector index either rose or fell by more than 0.6%, suggests a market which is on hold.

No big bets until after the US Federal Reserve's meeting early tomorrow morning our time.

Let’s dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 7.4 points lower at 7,695.8, 0.55% from its session high and smack-bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 130 to 137 – but that makes it three sessions now where it’s almost been a dead heat between the two.

The Energy (XEJ) (+0.6%) sector was the best performing sector today, likely in response to another solid gain in crude oil prices. No solid gains in the two major coal contracts, metallurgical and thermal coal, yet coal stocks Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (2.7%) and New Hope Corporation (NHC) (+1.7%) were among the sector's biggest gainers.

Also doing well today were uranium stocks, which are recovering along with the uranium price. Check ChartWatch for a closer look at Paladin Energy (PDN) (+5.6%).

Coal stocks made a mysterious appearance in the top Energy sector gainers list today

Doing it tough today was the Gold (XGD) (-2.4%) sub-index, perhaps this is no surprise given its candlestick chart as been in a zebra pattern for the last two weeks (see ChartWatch).

Gold stocks lost their shine today

The rest of the sectors, on a day where the index barely moved, were a much of a muchness…

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index (XGD)

Coining a new candle pattern: The Zebra!

Check out the Zebra pattern on the XGD over the last 2 weeks! It suggests considerable indecision within the demand-supply environment, and is hardly a glowing endorsement for ASX gold stocks.

Still, it hasn't done a great deal of damage to the prevailing short term trend, and the long term trend ribbon (albeit very flat) is still indicating an uptrend.

These two areas are now the key points of dynamic demand going forward. As long as the XGD continues to close above the uptrend ribbons short and long term uptrends are intact.

Supply is clearly at 7013. It would take a close above this point to reaffirm the short and long term uptrends, and potentially set the XGD up for a move to historical supply at 7571. A close below the uptrend ribbons would likely see historical demand at 6106 come into play.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Paladin's short term trend has realigned with its long term uptrend

There was a resounding show of excess demand in the PDN chart today in the form of a long and full-bodied white candle. The close on the high of the trading session at 1.32 confirms excess demand was working in the system right up until the closing bell.

This generally implies unmet excess demand in the system, and which could continue to impact prices in the next session.

The short term trend has re-established to the upside, realigning with the long term uptrend. Price action is back to rising peaks and rising troughs. Each suggests accumulation and buy the dip activity.

The previous historical supply zone of 1.26-1.27 now moves to demand, and only historical supply at 1.46 stands in the way of new all time highs.

Economy

Today

• China 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate announcement

  • Actual: No change at 3.45% and 3.95% vs forecast no change

Later this week

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Funds Rate decision, FOMC economic projections, FOMC Statement (forecast no change at 5.5%)

• 05:30 USA FOMC Press Conference

• 11:00 AUS Employment Change (+40.2k for 4.0% rate forecast vs +500 for +4.1% previous)

• 19:15-20:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMIs, France, Germany, Europe

Friday

• 00:45 USA Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.8 forecast vs 52.2 previous) & Flash Services PMI (52.0 forecast vs 52.3 previous)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.8% Tuas (TUA) FY24 Half Year Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +12.5% Iperionx (IPX) No news, initiated at buy at Bell Potter with price target: $3.70, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +11.5% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.9% Deep Yellow (DYL) No news, small rise in uranium price, retained at buy at Bell Potter with price target increased to $1.90 from $1.81, bounced off long term uptrend ribbon

• +6.2% GQG Partners (GQG) No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.6% Paladin Energy (PDN) No news, small rise in uranium price, retained at buy at Citi with price target $1.45, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.4% Bravura Solutions (BVS) No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.2% Generation Development Group (GDG) No news, small rise in uranium price, initiated at buy at Ord Minnett with price target $2.50, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +3.8% Lotus Resources (LOT) Change in substantial holding from MQG (increase), small rise in uranium price, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

Trading lower

• -13.0% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) No news, fading fast after Feb's monster (and inexplicable) rally

• -5.9% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) No news, general gold sector weakness, closed below short term uptrend ribbon

• -5.0% Sayona Mining (SYA) No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -5.0% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) No news, heat coming out of recent short covering / batter metals & tech rally, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend

• -4.7% Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -4.3% Red 5 (RED) No news, general gold sector weakness

• -4.2% South32 (S32) Australia Manganese Update, falls in key base metals aluminium, nickel, copper and zinc

• -4.1% Ebos Group (EBO) No news, closed below long term downtrend ribbon, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend

• -3.9% Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -3.8% Perseus Mining (PRU) No news, general gold sector weakness

• -3.8% Capricorn Metals (CMM) No news, general gold sector weakness

• -3.8% Nickel Industries (NIC) No news, retained at buy at Bell Potter but price target cut to $1.50 from $1.53, fall in the nickel price

Broker Notes

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.60

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.99

• ARB Corporation (ARB) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $44.90

• Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19

• ASX (ASX) Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.50

• Alumina (AWC) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.05

• Bapcor (BAP) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.34

• BHP Group (BHP) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $48.00 from $46.00

• Boral (BLD) Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.75 from $6.24

• Boss Energy (BOE) Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

• Deterra Royalties (DRR) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.00

• Deep Yellow (DYL) Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.81

• Fortescue (FMG) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $24.50 from $24.00

• Generation Development Group (GDG) Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.50

• G.U.D. Holdings (GUD) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.80

• Iluka Resources (ILU) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.70 from $7.60

• Imdex (IMD) Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.10

• Inghams Group (ING) Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35

• Iperionx (IPX) Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.70

• KMD Brands (KMD)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.51 from $0.47

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.80

• MMA Offshore (MRM) Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.60

• Metcash (MTS) Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $4.90 from $3.20

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.85

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.80

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70

• Nickel Industries (NIC) Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.53

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.29

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.88

• Paladin Energy (PDN) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.45

• Premier Investments (PMV) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $30.20

• Pacific Smiles Group (PSQ) Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.90

• Rio Tinto (RIO) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $137.00 from $139.00

• South32 (S32) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.50

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $11.52

• Webjet (WEB) Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $8.80

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC) Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00

• Woolworths Group (WOW) Downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $33.30 from $37.40

Scans