Evening Wrap: ASX 200 notches record close in volatile week end, more volatility on tap next week

If you add up the daily ranges over the last three trading sessions the S&P/ASX 200 has moved a total of 310 points. The net move from Wednesday's close to Friday's close, however, is just 18 points.

So, basically there's been a great deal of fuss over nothing! But, investors will happily take the 1.9% weekly gain, as well as the record close of 7,699.4.

If you think things are likely to settle down, think again! First half FY24 earnings season kicks off in earnest next week – so hold onto your hats Aussie investors and...

Let’s dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

I wasn't worried, were you worried?

The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 111.2 points higher at 7,699.4, 1.47% from its session low and just 0.05% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by an impressive 246 to 35. For the week, the XJO finished up 144 points or 1.87% higher.

For those who are only reading one market wrap this week, this one, here's how the last three trading sessions went:

• Wednesday: Aussie CPI beat. Record high. All 11 major ASX sectors up

• Thursday: #BankingCrisis. All 11 major ASX sectors down

• Friday: False alarm! Mega-cap tech earnings beat. Record high. 10/11 major ASX sectors up

What's going to happen on Monday? Haha, I'll you fill in the blank! 😁

Today's move was dominated by Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) +3.3% and Information Technology (XIJ) +3.1%. Note, the two worst performing sectors yesterday were Property and Financials (XFJ) – the point being whilst Property bounced back accordingly today, the Financials was notably absent from the best performers list.

Also doing well today was the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index (XGD) +3.0% as gold prices rose Thursday and are tracking higher in Asian trade. I note solid gains as well as demand-side technicals for the likes of Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Silver Lake Resources (ASX: SLR), and West African Resources (ASX: WAF). It's worth checking out those charts.

Whilst all of the major ASX sector indices were higher, Utilities (XUJ) -0.4% and Energy (XEJ) +1.1% were notable laggards. Both have companies which are negatively impacted by lower energy commodity prices overnight.

Just an FYI, Credit Corp (ASX: CCP) and Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX: PNI) kicked off this year's first half FY24 earnings season this week. Details of PNI's announcement can be found in the Interesting Movers sector below, but for the most comprehensive H1 FY24 earnings season calendar you'll find anywhere: Be sure to bookmark THIS PAGE!

ChartWatch

KBW Regional Bank Index

Not everything was up last night...

Everything bounced back after the big Wednesday (Thursday if you were in the US) bounce, right? Nope, not everything. Notably absent was the source of original consternation among investors, the KBW Regional Bank Index. It extended its 5.6% loss on Wednesday by another 2.3% on Thursday.

The company which caused the ruckus, New York Community Bank (NYSE: NYCB), shed another 11% on top of the 38% plunge the previous session. NYCB is reeling after it announced a massive unexpected loss due to bad commercial real estate loans.

Given how well the rest of the market bounced back last night/today, I'm just going to park this item today – but I suggest you'd be foolish not to just check in on this chart a few times next week. This could be part of a broader ticking time bomb, or it could be nothing...that's not a cop out, just an observation on how the market treated it this week.

Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index

How many times can a dead cat bounce!?

While we're on the topic of canaries in the mineshaft, just a heads up here. I covered the beleaguered state of Chinese stock markets recently in this article which is worth a read. Looking at the chart above, it appears yet another hopium-fueled bounce is failing, which is par for the course for such bounces.

Each time Chinese stocks plumb new lows, coincidentally rumours of impending stimulus surface, or Beijing unveils a piecemeal initiative with promises of more to come. Really though, how many times can a dead cat bounce?

Uranium

Uranium remains a picture of excess demand

Given the chart above for uranium futures, It's no surprise then 5 out of the top 13 best performing stocks on the ASX today were uranium stocks. There are many Jonny-come-lately's to this theme, but not readers of this Evening Wrap who have been following this amazing uptrend for months now!

I'm going to say what I said about this chart the last time we reviewed it here, there's nothing in the technicals which suggests anything but a state of excess demand. You might want to check out very demand-side looking charts of Boss Energy (ASX: BOE), Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN), and Silex Systems (ASX: SLX).

Economy

• No major economic news events today!

What to watch out for...

Tonight:

• Sat: 00:30 US Non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rate for January, consensus +177,000, +0.3%, 3.8% vs December +216,000, +0.4%, 3.7%

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.8% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, uranium prices rose Thursday on more production issues at Kazatomprom, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +9.4% Opthea (OPT) - Opthea Strengthens Team with Key Clinical & Regulatory Hires

• +8.6% Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) - 1HFY24 Financial Highlights and Investor Presentation

• +8.0% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, uranium prices rose Thursday on more production issues at Kazatomprom, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +7.6% OM Holdings 10c (OMH) - No news since 31-Jan: Investor Presentation

• +7.2% Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC) - Continued positive response to 1 Feb: Update On Austrac Proceedings And Accounting Provision

• +6.6% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, uranium prices rose Thursday on more production issues at Kazatomprom, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.4% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - No news since 30-Jan: Quarterly Activities Report & Cashflow, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.3% SG Fleet Group (SGF) - No news, bouncing off long term uptrend ribbon

• +6.2% Goodman Group (GMG) - No news, very strong Property sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.1% Alpha HPA (A4N) - No new, bounce after recent sharp selloff

• +5.9% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, uranium prices rose Thursday on more production issues at Kazatomprom, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.8% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, uranium prices rose Thursday on more production issues at Kazatomprom, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

Trading lower

• -7.8% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Resignation of Director - Morgan Ball, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -6.8% EML Payments (EML) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -6.3% Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL) - No news, Macquarie cut price target to $0.49 from $0.60, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -5.9% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - Continued negative response to 1 Feb: Sydney Mining Club Presentation

• -5.4% Westgold Resources (WGX) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder from MS

• -4.5% Fineos Corporation Holdings (FCL) - No news 🤔

• -4.3% AGL Energy (AGL) - Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie and price target cut to $9.30 from $10.89, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -4.1% Zip Co (ZIP) - No news 🤔

• -3.9% Arcadium Lithium (LTM) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

Broker Notes

• Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.35

• AGL Energy (AGL) downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.30 from $10.89

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $48.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $484.50

• Bapcor (BAP) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.58

• Car Group (CAR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.30 from $31.50

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $82.37 from $82.55

• Capricorn Metals (CMM) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.95 from $5.70

• CSL (CSL) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $325.00

• Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.70

• Envirosuite (EVS) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.13 from $0.16

• Genetic Signatures (GSS) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.80

• IGO Limited (IGO) downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.80 from $8.50

• KMD Brands (KMD) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.62

• Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $100.00

• NIB Holdings (NHF) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.70

• Nickel Industries (NIC) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.53 from $1.80

• Nufarm (NUF)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.73 from $5.80

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

• Origin Energy (ORG) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.60 from $7.40

• Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.06 from $5.95

• Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.49 from $0.60

• Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.64 from $10.75

• REA Group (REA) downgraded to sell from underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $160.00 from $158.00

• Rio Tinto (RIO) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $120.00

• Regal Partners (RPL) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.36

• Resolute Mining (RSG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.57

• Saturn Metals (STN) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.44

• Super Retail Group (SUL) retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.15 from $12.60

• Sayona Mining (SYA) downgraded to hold from speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.06 from $0.20

• Syrah Resources (SYR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.90

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.00

• Universal Store Holdings (UNI) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.25

Scans