Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips but plenty of strength shown from Technology, Property, Banking, Copper, and Iron Ore stocks

ASX stocks capped off a wild week (losses early but steadying late) with a narrow fall. Under the surface, there was plenty of strength, however, as Technology, Consumer Staples, Property, Financials, and Copper and Iron ore stocks rallied (the latter two on stronger commodity prices).

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Crude Oil and the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ) in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 9.3 points lower at 8,511.4, 0.25% from its session high and 0.15% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a modest 119 to 150.

For the week, the XJO finished down 20.9 points or 0.24% lower, 1.89% from its intraweek low and just 0.25% from its intraweek high.

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.53%) sector was the best performing sector today, likely in response to strong US tech stocks overnight, but also on increased positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings season. Tech is the home of earnings growth on the ASX, and today’s gain capped a strong week – but really a strong three weeks in a row – for the sector.

Other sectors to show gains today in largely listless trade on few major macro thematic drivers included Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.51%), Materials (XMJ) (+0.29%), Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.21%), Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.12%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.05%).

In Materials, copper and iron ore stocks deserve a special mention as there were plenty of strong gains across both areas of the market following decent gains in their respective commodity prices overnight (and into today for iron ore).

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX (click here for full size image)

Today’s best performing stocks from the best performing sectors

Doing it tough today was the Energy (XEJ) (-1.5%) sector. It was plagued by lower uranium, coal, and crude oil prices overnight. I have detailed technical analysis on Brent crude oil and the XEJ in tonight’s ChartWatch.

Other sectors that struggled today included Gold (XGD) (-1.4%) (the gold price edged lower last night – likely just a breather after massive gains here), Health Care (XHJ) (-1.03%) (plagued by persistent downtrends in sector heavyweight CSL (ASX: CSL) (-1.1%), but today CSL joined by a pullbacks in winners Resmed (ASX: RMD) (-2.6%) and Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (-1.5%)), and Utilities (XUJ) (-0.87%) (continued weakness in sector heavyweights AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) (-0.85%) and Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) (-1.4%)).

Special mention for sub-sector weakness today goes to lithium. Lithium stocks were generally lower following a media report from the AFR that major broker UBS had published a research report stating the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer CATL had restarted production at its Jiangxi lepidolite mine.

It was the closure of this same mine back in September that sparked a rally in global lithium stocks. The AFR note suggested CATL restarted the mine due to improving lithium prices (ironically, triggered by the mine’s closure!). Interestingly, lithium prices in China were flat-to-slightly up today, so the response from local lithium stocks appears outsized for now.

Today’s worst performing stocks from the worst performing sectors

ChartWatch

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Supply up above, demand down below...here we are...stuck in the middle with crude...🎶🎵 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered Brent Crude Oil was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 15 January.

In that update, it was looking very strong, having breached the 77.50-78.94 zone of supply. The next (almighty) zone of supply wasn’t far away, though, in the form of 83.28-85.42. But by all indications, the demand-side looked well in control at the time.

Enter Trump’s tariffs and a bunch of other mitigating circumstances (Iran sanctions, China’s retaliation on imported US energy products, higher than expected US inventories, several weaker than expected Chinese economic data releases) and that previous demand-side control has evaporated. It’s been a cavalcade of supply-side candles (i.e., black bodies and or upward pointing shadows) since our last update.

The price appears to be finding an inkling of support at the 73.27-7437 zone of demand – although last night’s candle with its upward pointing shadows suggests the supply side isn’t too phased by the prospect of a bounce here. (Note, the last candle shown is today’s live candle, so last night’s candle is the second from last on the chart).

Remember, points/zones of demand are only as good as the candles you find at them. Demand-side candles (i.e., white bodies and or downward pointing shadows) are vital to confirm excess demand actually exists at any point/zone.

So far, there’s little to suggest that 73.27-74.37 is going to put up much of a fight, but I suggest its worth waiting for at least a couple more to be sure. Should the demand-side choose to abstain from 73.27-74.37 then 69.52-70.67 is the next zone of demand down.

More broadly speaking, there was so much congestion between 68.64-74.37 I would be surprised if we didn’t see at least a prolonged sideways consolidation here – but possibly even better – at least a modest bounce.

If we do see such a rally (on the back of white-bodied candles and or those with downward pointing shadows), then 77.34 is the next relevant point of supply.

I’m back to neutral here. There’s a bigger, well-established trading range at play in 65.77-85.42, so it’s most likely we’re just going to continue to vibrate within it – potentially indefinitely!

S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ)

Darn that long term downtrend ribbon! 🎀 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered Brent Crude Oil was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 15 January.

The crude oil price is obviously a significant driver of prices of the prices of stocks in the XEJ, but so too are coal prices, and the uranium price. I covered uranium in last night's Evening Wrap, and you'll just have to take my word for it that the prices of both metallurgical and thermal coal remain entrenched in short and long term downtrends.

Not a great set of contributing factors in terms of potentially generating excess demand for the XEJ's constituents!

The last time we looked at the XEJ was the first time we'd looked at it in 2025, and similarly, since the massive rally from December's nadir. That rally was driven largely by a strong recovery in crude and natural gas prices that have since faded. Ergo, the XEJ's rally also appears to be fading.

Putting the reasons for the recent XEJ rollover aside – because whilst I am across everything that happens in markets – the reasons for stuff happening are largely irrelevant to me...

I don't care about why. All I care about is what has happened. How did the demand side and the supply side vote with their capital and shares?

The result of this ever-ongoing election is that the supply-side is again gaining control of the XEJ. The long term downtrend ribbon appears to have done its job as acting as a zone of excess supply, the price action is compressing below it and threatens to fail to hold the short term trend ribbon, and candles are again predominantly supply-side in nature.

Anything is possible, the next XEJ leg up could start tomorrow. But until the trends, price action, and candles unanimously change definitively here, I must stick with the status quo – the prospect that the XEJ is going to roll again.

8200 over the next few weeks wouldn't be a massive surprise...

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Payroll Data January

  • Employment Change: +154,000 forecast vs +256,000 in December

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in December

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.1% forecast vs 4.1% in December

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +21.3% Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) - Trading Update, highly shorted stock, so likely an element of short covering scramble here too.

• +12.7% Collins Foods (CKF) - Clarification Regarding Yum! Brands Fourth Quarter Results, ditto likely short covering scramble.

• +10.5% Nick Scali (NCK) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts and 1H FY25 Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% Mesoblast (MSB) - Change in substantial holding (increase), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% Select Harvests (SHV) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Larvotto Resources (LRV) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.2% MA Financial Group (MAF) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.1% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, however China retaliatory tariffs against US imports of rare earths announced earlier in week likely to be a positive for LYC's Australian and Malaysian production.

• +6.1% Appen (APX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.6% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news, suspect also shorts chose to reassess their options in light of DMP and CKF pops today! 🤔

• +5.6% AIC Mines (A1M) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +4.9% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.1% Bravura Solutions (BVS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.5% Champion Iron (CIA) - No news, Iron Ore price has been rising last couple of days, likely helping here...🤔

• +3.3% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.2% Sigma Healthcare (SIG) - Sigma FY25 Trading Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.1% Eagers Automotive (APE) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -10.4% McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) - No news, downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter and rice target cut to $15.80 from $21.00, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -7.3% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.8% Yancoal Australia (YAL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

• -5.2% Beach Energy (BPT) - No news since 06-Feb Beach Energy FY25 half year results, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, also 3 x ratings downgrades from the brokers and several price target cuts…see Broker Moves for more details.

• -4.9% 29METALS (29M) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.7% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -4.4% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.3% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.3% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.9% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.9% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.8% Karoon Energy (KAR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today.

Broker Moves

• Amcor (AMC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

• AMP (AMP)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.540

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $34.00

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $35.00

• ASX (ASX)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $65.00

• Accent Group (AX1)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.45

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $11.50

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $6.50

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.700 from $1.650

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.150 from $1.300

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.300 from $1.350

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $1.380 from $1.420

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.550 from $1.600

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.400 from $1.450

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.460

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.550 from $1.750

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.750 from $1.850

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.600

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.660

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.10

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $35.00

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $26.70

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $119.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $115.00

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.20

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $270.00 from $265.00

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.60

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.50

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $320.00

• Coventry Group (CYG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.300

• Domain Australia (DHG)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $28.20

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $38.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.50

• DUG Technology (DUG)

  • Initiated at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $2.19

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.00

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.00

• Findi (FND)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.95 from $8.32

• Galan Lithium (GLN)

  • Initiated at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.200

• Guzman y Gomez (GYG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $40.00

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.20

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.00

• Inghams Group (ING)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.50

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $108.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $72.00

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.50

• Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.40

• KMD Brands (KMD)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.450

• Lovisa (LOV)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $27.00

• McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.80 from $21.00

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90

• Macquarie Group (MQG)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $235.00

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.90

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $37.50

• Nick Scali (NCK)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.60

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

• News Corporation (NWS)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $61.00 from $55.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: US$35.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $68.00 from $64.50

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.83 from $10.00

• Pro Medicus (PME)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $310.00

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $29.00

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.64

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $281.00 from $258.00

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $283.00 from $217.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $273.00 from $267.00

  • Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $210.00 from $198.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $260.00 from $245.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $270.00 from $265.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $275.00

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $260.00 from $240.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $294.00 from $268.00

• Sims (SGM)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $15.50

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.68

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.90

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.00

• Seven West Media (SWM)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.160

• The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $5.34

• TPG Telecom (TPG)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.40

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.55

• Titan Minerals (TTM)

  • Retained to reduce from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.100

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.60

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.00

• Universal Store (UNI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.40

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00

• Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.990 from $2.360

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.30

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $40.00

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $74.35

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $76.00

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.30

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $160.00

Scans