The S&P/ASX 200 closed 17.7 points lower, down 0.22%.
It looked pretty quiet on the surface today...a narrow 37 point range, a modest 17 point loss on the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index.
But there was plenty going on under the surface. News drove solid gains in several stocks, most notably Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) (+17.4%) which received a further $200 million commitment from the Australian Government for its flagship Nolans rare earths project, and Baby Bunting Group (BBN) (+13.9%) which flagged a stronger set of first half profit numbers than analysts were expecting.
But as they say in the classic TV ads...wait there's more...the brokers were also busy today upgrading and downgrading widely held stocks like Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+4.1%) (upgraded to overweight by JP Morgan), and Guzman y Gomez (GYG) (+4.4%) (upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS).
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Brent Crude Oil and the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector (XEJ) in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Wed 15 Jan 25, 5:09pm (AEDT)
Enjoying the Evening Wrap? Sign up to get it sent directly to your inbox after every trading day.
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 17.7 points lower at 8,213.3, 0.39% from its session high and just 0.06% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a narrow 143 to 133.
There were still some very strong new year sector rotation undertones working through the market today – albeit at a snail’s pace of trade and overall result.
A continued rise in long term benchmark risk-free yields (yep, again) dragged on high-PE, long duration earnings sectors like Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.3%) (six sessions-straight losses now 🤔), Communication Services (XTJ) (-1.2%) (a rating downgrade for CAR Group (ASX: CAR) (-1.8%) from Ord Minnett not helping here), and Health Care (XHJ) (-0.65%).
Winners were scarcer, but the Gold (XGD) (+1.2%) sub-index seems to be unstoppable at the moment (seven sessions-straight gains now 💪). They fell away quickly from there, but a first half FY25 profit update from Baby Bunting (ASX: BBN) (+13.9%) helped the Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.19%) sector to a small gain.
Special mentions must go to lithium and battery metals stocks. The Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) (+17.4%) news likely helping here, but I also note that (yes – believe it!) lithium minerals prices have been rallying steadily over the last few days.
Lithium carbonate futures on China's GFEX exchange have tipped RMB 80,000/t – the critical level that many believe to the marginal cost of production for that country's major lepidolite producers. If the lithium carbonate price can push higher from here – without a major supply side response - it may bode well for a continued rally. Time will tell!
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.580 | +$0.04 | +7.4% | -4.1% | -60.9% |
OOH!Media (OML) | $1.245 | +$0.065 | +5.5% | +10.2% | -23.1% |
IDP Education (IEL) | $12.75 | +$0.54 | +4.4% | +6.9% | -38.3% |
Bapcor (BAP) | $4.75 | +$0.2 | +4.4% | +4.6% | -13.9% |
Guzman y Gomez (GYG) | $40.00 | +$1.67 | +4.4% | -6.3% | 0% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | $0.850 | +$0.035 | +4.3% | -6.1% | +29.8% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $2.29 | +$0.09 | +4.1% | -3.0% | -38.8% |
Mesoblast (MSB) | $2.65 | +$0.1 | +3.9% | +55.9% | +829.8% |
Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) | $6.21 | +$0.21 | +3.5% | -6.5% | +170.0% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $36.75 | +$0.98 | +2.7% | -0.4% | -41.4% |
SRG Global (SRG) | $1.360 | +$0.035 | +2.6% | +6.7% | +100.0% |
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) | $5.20 | +$0.13 | +2.6% | -0.8% | +18.7% |
Cochlear (COH) | $306.95 | +$7.49 | +2.5% | +5.7% | +4.3% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.90 | +$0.07 | +2.5% | +1.0% | +33.6% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $5.44 | +$0.13 | +2.4% | +3.8% | +41.7% |
IGO (IGO) | $5.10 | +$0.12 | +2.4% | -0.4% | -36.7% |
Strike Energy (STX) | $0.215 | +$0.005 | +2.4% | +4.9% | -56.1% |
Cettire (CTT) | $1.320 | +$0.03 | +2.3% | +13.8% | -49.0% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $2.21 | +$0.05 | +2.3% | -7.9% | +43.0% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $2.32 | +$0.05 | +2.2% | +7.4% | +34.1% |
McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) | $15.84 | +$0.34 | +2.2% | +10.8% | -3.6% |
Deterra Royalties (DRR) | $4.02 | +$0.08 | +2.0% | +2.8% | -19.1% |
Corporate Travel Management (CTD) | $13.15 | +$0.26 | +2.0% | -4.4% | -34.1% |
Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $0.770 | +$0.015 | +2.0% | +7.7% | +234.8% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $18.84 | +$0.34 | +1.8% | -6.8% | -31.2% |
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) | $11.01 | -$0.99 | -8.3% | -16.8% | -52.3% |
Opthea (OPT) | $0.750 | -$0.05 | -6.3% | +16.3% | +33.5% |
Droneshield (DRO) | $0.680 | -$0.035 | -4.9% | +7.9% | +70.0% |
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) | $0.455 | -$0.02 | -4.2% | +18.2% | +152.8% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $115.00 | -$4.4 | -3.7% | -6.2% | +58.3% |
Johns Lyng Group (JLG) | $3.75 | -$0.14 | -3.6% | +2.5% | -45.2% |
Hub24 (HUB) | $64.48 | -$2.3 | -3.4% | -8.1% | +75.9% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | $2.81 | -$0.09 | -3.1% | -4.1% | +410.9% |
Brainchip (BRN) | $0.320 | -$0.01 | -3.0% | +30.6% | +88.2% |
Universal Store (UNI) | $7.80 | -$0.23 | -2.9% | +0.1% | +87.1% |
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | $6.27 | -$0.18 | -2.8% | -5.9% | -21.3% |
Qantas Airways (QAN) | $8.86 | -$0.25 | -2.7% | -1.6% | +63.8% |
Jumbo Interactive (JIN) | $12.70 | -$0.35 | -2.7% | -8.2% | -8.1% |
Sigma Healthcare (SIG) | $2.86 | -$0.07 | -2.4% | +4.4% | +199.5% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | $5.34 | -$0.13 | -2.4% | +4.1% | -21.1% |
Polynovo (PNV) | $2.10 | -$0.05 | -2.3% | -0.5% | +33.8% |
Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) | $3.38 | -$0.08 | -2.3% | -2.3% | +12.7% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $26.58 | -$0.58 | -2.1% | -7.5% | +63.1% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.410 | -$0.03 | -2.1% | +0.7% | -28.1% |
Kogan.Com (KGN) | $5.45 | -$0.11 | -2.0% | -4.9% | +11.5% |
Computershare (CPU) | $33.97 | -$0.68 | -2.0% | +4.4% | +36.6% |
Seek (SEK) | $21.70 | -$0.43 | -1.9% | -11.1% | -16.2% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $7.07 | -$0.14 | -1.9% | +1.0% | +10.6% |
Technology One (TNE) | $28.49 | -$0.54 | -1.9% | -6.3% | +86.2% |
Iress (IRE) | $9.05 | -$0.17 | -1.8% | +4.4% | +14.4% |
The last time we covered Brent Crude was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 9 January.
In that update, I postulated that should it be able to hold 75.32 “with some decent demand-side candles, there’s a good chance it can continue its new short term uptrend to retest 78.45-79.89”.
It did, and it did even better – closing above the 78.45-79.89 supply zone on Monday, before a very modest pullback last night (that last candle you see on the chart above is today’s live candle – discount it – live candles don’t exist in our analysis!).
Here’s a tip that I am confident will bode well for you until the day you stop investing.
When something goes up lots really quickly, and it doesn’t pullback, that’s usually a good sign it wants to go higher.
Contrary to popular ASX punter belief, when stuff goes up lots really quickly – it isn’t automatically too expensive / too high to buy / an example of how the market has lost its mind / guaranteed to go down / guaranteed to go down if you buy in particular / overvalued / overbought / overextended.
Focus on the reason why it went up. No, not because of US sanctions on Russian oil exports. Not because investors are front-running impending Trump tariffs. Not because of any other reason you read about on the internet.
They’re just narratives.
The price of Brent went up lots really quickly because there was substantial excess demand in the system for it.
Way more demand (i.e., cash) failed to find enough supply (i.e., barrels of oil) at lower prices…so in order to satisfy their requirements, the demand-side had to bid higher and higher prices to entice reluctant supply out.
But that’s the past.
Right now, they could be doing anything. We’ll know what they did today when we get the next candle.
It will either be demand-side (i.e., white bodied and or downward pointing shadows) or supply-side (black bodied and ore upward pointing shadows).
The consequences of which will impact our analysis and our trades. It’s that simple.
The market does what it does, and we do what we do = Analyse demand and supply and try to work out who is in control.
It’s the demand-side by the way. The predominance of demand-side candles, strong price action (strongly rising peaks and rising troughs), and the rising and widening short term trend ribbon which tells me this.
Even better, both trend ribbons appear to be acting as zones of dynamic demand. Check, check, checkity-check ✅✅✅.
Long term, the demand-supply picture is more muted. Growing demand-side control, I would say. The long term trend ribbon remains neutral, although it is beginning to turn up. There remains massive supply within close proximity at 82.23-86.37.
Brent appears to have dispensed with one trading range, and found itself within yet another. Trading ranges within trading ranges…
It’s like that Leonardo DiCaprio movie about dreams within dreams…or something like that because I was fast asleep about halfway through…or was I? 🤔
It makes sense to follow up with this chart after the Brent chart. If you’ve been reading this Evening Wrap for any length of time, you’ll know that the XEJ was the worst performing major ASX sector index in 2024.
But the last bits of the chart above, and the one below, and the one below that…have helped the XEJ stage a massive rally into the new year. I didn’t do the maths, but I reckon the XEJ is probably the best performing major ASX sector over the last few weeks...
The XEJ is a broad church, oil, gas, uranium, and coal. The charts for coal (below) are far less inspiring.
It’s pointless doing key levels analysis on a sector index – or really any index – that doesn’t have options or futures traded on it. This is because it’s the key levels on the charts of the index constituents that will likely influence demand and supply.
Candles, price action, and trend analysis, however, is more relevant as they help us gauge the broad demand-supply dynamics.
In this regard, the price action looks solid, rising peaks and rising troughs – indicative of demand reinforcement / growing demand and supply removal / diminishing supply. Candles are good – plenty of demand-side showings. The short term trend has turned up – let’s call it: Short term demand-side control.
The elephant in the room is the long term downtrend – in particular, the dynamic supply we’d normally expect to occur at the long term downtrend ribbon. Note just how perfect that long term downtrend ribbon has been in the past at killing fledgling rallies – fledgling rallies just like the one we’re having now.
I’m getting a bit of déjà vu as I write this because I feel I’ve written the same analysis about a previous test of the long term uptrend ribbon.
Let’s hope for the sake of all of you invested in ASX energy stocks (not based on my ChartWatch scans mind you!) that the market doesn’t also relive the past!
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Thursday
00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) December (+0.2% m/m and +3.2% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. previous)
11:30 AUS Employment Change December (+14,500 m/m forecast versus +35,600 m/m in November) and Unemployment Rate (4.0% forecast vs 3.9% in November)
Friday
00:30 USA Core Retail Sales December (+0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in November)
13:00 CHN Data Dump December
Gross Domestic Product qtr/y (+5.0% p.a. forecast vs 4.6% p.a. in September quarter)
Industrial Production y/y (+5.4% p.a. forecast vs +5.4% p.a. in November)
Retail Sales y/y (+3.5% p.a. forecast vs +3.0% p.a. in November)
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.3% p.a. forecast vs +3.3% to November / previous corresponding period)
Unemployment Rate (5.0% forecast vs 5.0% in November)
NBS Press Conference
+17.4% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - Arafura receives A$200m investment commitment from the NRFC, retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity and price target raised to $0.30 from $0.25
+13.9% Baby Bunting Group (BBN) - 1H FY25 Results Update, retained at buy at City and price target retained at $1.98
+7.8% Avjennings (AVJ) - Receipt of Competing Proposal from Ho Bee Land
+7.4% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, lithium prices have been rising steadily last few days, up again today in China
+5.5% OOH!Media (OML) - No news, upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie (price target cut, however, to $1.45 from $1.56)
+4.6% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, part of a generally stronger ASX battery metals sector today
+4.4% IDP Education (IEL) - No news, suggest pre-results positioning is underway!
+4.4% Bapcor (BAP) - No news, suggest pre-results positioning is underway!
+4.4% Guzman y Gomez (GYG) - No news, upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS and price target raised to $40.00 from $37.00
+4.3% Nickel Industries (NIC) - No news, nickel price has staged a decent rally since beginning of the year, from 14,770/t to 15,600/t yesterday on LME
+4.1% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, ditto generally stronger ASX lithium and battery metals stocks, upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan (price target cut, however, to $2.55 from $3.00)
+3.9% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, bouncing after recent sell off, bounced off short term uptrend ribbon
+3.8% Novonix (NVX) - N, ditto generally stronger ASX battery metals stocks
+3.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends
+2.7% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, ditto generally stronger ASX lithium stocks
-8.3% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - Trofinetide marketing application submitted in Europe, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-7.1% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news, pullback after strong 2-day rally, overall however, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-6.3% Opthea (OPT) - No news since yesterday's Opthea's Corporate Presentation - Jan 2025
-4.9% Droneshield (DRO) - Becoming a substantial holder (State Street is a rumoured short seller), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-4.2% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - Change in substantial holding from IFL (decrease)
-3.7% Wisetech Global (WTC) - No news, continued general weakness in ASX Information Technology sector on new year sector rotations / higher risk-free market yields
-3.6% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $79.00 from $72.00
Arafura Rare Earths (ARU)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.25
Australian Vanadium (AVL)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.08
Baby Bunting Group (BBN)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.98
Bellevue Gold (BGL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.90
Car Group (CAR)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.40
Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.00
City Chic Collective (CCX)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.20 from $0.25
Champion Iron (CIA)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.00
Coronado Global Resources (CRN)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00
Deterra Royalties (DRR)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.30
Data#3 (DTL)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.60
Evolution Mining (EVN)
Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.10
Fleetpartners Group (FPR)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90
GPT Group (GPT)
Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $4.89 from $4.73
Guzman y Gomez (GYG)
Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $40.00 from $37.00
Iluka Resources (ILU)
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.50
Ingenia Communities Group (INA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.15
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $56.00
Jumbo Interactive (JIN)
Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.70 from $13.10
Light & Wonder (LNW)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $180.00
Arcadium Lithium (LTM)
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $9.50 from $8.60
Liontown Resources (LTR)
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.80
Mineral Resources (MIN)
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $39.00
Metro Mining (MMI)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.17 from $0.14
Monadelphous Group (MND)
Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $14.28 from $13.80
OOH!Media (OML)
Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.45 from $1.56
Opthea (OPT)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.30
Peninsula Energy (PEN)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.81
Pilbara Minerals (PLS)
Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.55 from $3.00
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.25
Premier Investments (PMV)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $34.00 from $38.00
PWR Holdings (PWH)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.45
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $9.10
Reece (REH)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $25.85
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.85
Stockland (SGP)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.50
The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)
Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $0.12 from $0.22
Symal Group (SYL)
Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.44
Transurban Group (TCL)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.82 from $13.00
The Lottery Corporation (TLC)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70
Viva Energy Group (VEA)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.15
Westgold Resources (WGX)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.90
Whitehaven Coal (WHC)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00
Worley (WOR)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.00
Get the latest news and insights direct to your inbox
Create an account to receive our concise, data-driven post-market recap, sent directly to your inbox, every day.
Along with the Evening Wrap, you'll join 100k+ investors who receive our Morning Wrap and Weekend Newsletter.
Subscribe Now Sign Up FreeAlready have an account? Log in