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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds as resources and energy sectors bolstered by strong gains in iron ore, coal, and uranium stocks
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds as resources and energy sectors bolstered by strong gains in iron ore, coal, and uranium stocks
Tue 14 Jan 25, 6:01pm (AEDT)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 39.1 points higher, up 0.48%.
We saw a continued follow through of the new year sector rotations today. On the nose were high risk-free market yield casualties like Information Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care.
Winners, well they were again 2024's biggest losers: Resources and Energy. I note iron ore, coal, and uranium stocks were in particularly high demand.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on and in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Tue 14 Jan 25, 5:07pm (AEDT)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 39.1 points higher at 8,231.0, 0.48% from its session low and 0.28% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a resounding 209 to 71.
We saw a continued follow through of the new year sector rotations today. On the nose were high risk-free market yield casualties like Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.49%), Financials (XFJ) (-0.02%), and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.003%). Note also high PE sector Health Care (XHJ) (+0.06%) also substantially lagged the benchmark XJO’s 0.48% gain.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Mesoblast (MSB) | $2.55 | -$0.26 | -9.3% | +54.1% | +794.7% |
Appen (APX) | $2.57 | -$0.17 | -6.2% | +14.2% | +394.2% |
Kogan.Com (KGN) | $5.56 | -$0.29 | -5.0% | -0.7% | +12.8% |
Myer (MYR) | $0.840 | -$0.04 | -4.5% | -30.9% | +37.7% |
Life360 (360) | $21.34 | -$0.88 | -4.0% | -7.2% | +212.4% |
Temple & Webster Group (TPW) | $13.04 | -$0.47 | -3.5% | -1.3% | +49.4% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | $3.29 | -$0.11 | -3.2% | -5.7% | +151.1% |
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) | $0.475 | -$0.015 | -3.1% | +25.0% | +171.4% |
Avita Medical (AVH) | $2.90 | -$0.09 | -3.0% | -28.7% | -36.4% |
Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) | $22.73 | -$0.43 | -1.9% | -1.3% | +129.4% |
Eagers Automotive (APE) | $11.82 | -$0.21 | -1.7% | -2.4% | -18.5% |
JB HI-FI (JBH) | $94.92 | -$1.58 | -1.6% | +1.9% | +69.0% |
Hub24 (HUB) | $66.78 | -$1.07 | -1.6% | -4.7% | +81.5% |
Weebit Nano (WBT) | $2.58 | -$0.04 | -1.5% | -10.7% | -30.3% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | $37.22 | -$0.54 | -1.4% | -2.8% | +40.7% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | $27.40 | -$0.38 | -1.4% | -21.5% | +2.0% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | $2.90 | -$0.04 | -1.4% | -0.3% | +427.3% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $119.40 | -$1.62 | -1.3% | -2.0% | +64.4% |
Technology One (TNE) | $29.03 | -$0.33 | -1.1% | -4.9% | +89.0% |
Universal Store (UNI) | $8.03 | -$0.08 | -1.0% | +3.7% | +93.0% |
Cochlear (COH) | $299.46 | -$2.78 | -0.9% | +2.1% | +1.5% |
Nanosonics (NAN) | $3.25 | -$0.03 | -0.9% | +6.9% | -23.3% |
Dicker Data (DDR) | $8.22 | -$0.07 | -0.8% | -2.4% | -29.1% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $27.16 | -$0.2 | -0.7% | -5.5% | +70.2% |
Sigma Healthcare (SIG) | $2.93 | -$0.02 | -0.7% | +3.9% | +208.4% |
Today's worst performing stocks from the worst performing major ASX sectors
I provided a detailed explanation in yesterday’s Evening Wrap sector by sector why each of the above areas of the market is being negatively impacted by the prevailing macroeconomic conditions. I also discussed why sectors like Resources (XJR) (+1.4%) and Energy (XEJ) (+1.2%) are experiencing a sudden resurgence.
The big fund managers simply picked up where they left off at yesterday's close. I note iron ore, coal, and uranium stocks were in particularly high demand.
If there were discrepancies with the prevailing new year playbook, it was with respect to strength in bond market proxy sector Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+1.2%) and high PE ratio sector Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.1%). To be fair, we did see those pesky risk-free market yields ease ever so slightly in the last 24-hours – likely responsible for the moves here.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Ingenia Communities Group (INA) | $5.20 | +$0.68 | +15.0% | +12.6% | +13.3% |
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | $6.45 | +$0.4 | +6.6% | -2.0% | -19.9% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | $2.75 | +$0.14 | +5.4% | +9.1% | -43.3% |
Bannerman Energy (BMN) | $3.15 | +$0.13 | +4.3% | +10.9% | +9.8% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | $8.46 | +$0.28 | +3.4% | +12.2% | -28.0% |
Seek (SEK) | $22.13 | +$0.71 | +3.3% | -11.5% | -14.9% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | $5.82 | +$0.18 | +3.2% | -4.7% | -29.2% |
Bluescope Steel (BSL) | $19.64 | +$0.56 | +2.9% | -9.2% | -11.9% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $18.50 | +$0.52 | +2.9% | -8.0% | -31.6% |
Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $5.95 | +$0.16 | +2.8% | -5.1% | +12.7% |
Stanmore Resources (SMR) | $3.00 | +$0.08 | +2.7% | -5.7% | -24.4% |
Car Group (CAR) | $38.52 | +$1.02 | +2.7% | -1.2% | +23.2% |
Charter Hall Group (CHC) | $14.63 | +$0.38 | +2.7% | -0.5% | +24.8% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.405 | +$0.01 | +2.5% | -2.4% | -1.2% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | $6.92 | +$0.17 | +2.5% | -0.4% | +56.2% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.270 | +$0.03 | +2.4% | +1.2% | +9.0% |
Region Group (RGN) | $2.12 | +$0.05 | +2.4% | -1.9% | -4.5% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $3.09 | +$0.07 | +2.3% | +10.8% | +341.4% |
Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.73 | +$0.06 | +2.2% | +4.2% | -21.1% |
Ampol (ALD) | $29.60 | +$0.63 | +2.2% | +8.2% | -16.4% |
Lendlease Group (LLC) | $6.28 | +$0.13 | +2.1% | -7.5% | -15.1% |
Arena Reit. (ARF) | $3.90 | +$0.08 | +2.1% | +1.6% | +8.3% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $35.77 | +$0.69 | +2.0% | -2.1% | -43.8% |
Domain Australia (DHG) | $2.65 | +$0.05 | +1.9% | +1.1% | -23.4% |
Mirvac Group (MGR) | $1.865 | +$0.035 | +1.9% | -10.3% | -9.0% |
Today's best performing stocks from the best performing major ASX sectors
Overall, it was a reasonable showing from Aussie stocks today given market breadth was resounding. But, I do note we didn't close at the session highs and the "casualty" sectors above just hold too many index points for them not to cause a nagging continuing drag on index performance.
As per ChartWatch below where I discuss the technical picture for the NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000, the fortunes of the local benchmark hang in the balance!
ChartWatch
NASDAQ Composite Index
Short term neutral, long term still bullish ➡️↗️
The last time we covered the Comp was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 6 January.
In that update, I noted an indeterminate technical picture in the short term, one that required confirmation of either demand-side or supply-side control before applying greater risk to the markets. I said:
Until either of the above scenarios prevail, I prefer to stay the course with respect to the long term uptrend, albeit with reduced overall portfolio exposure – keeping some powder dry. I might even add some sneaky but limited short exposure on some nice downtrends here and there if I can find it.
I suggest history shows my commentary above has proven to be prudent.
I put to you now that with the close below the 19117-19168 demand zone, we have our confirmation of short term supply-side control.
This suggests I should reduce my portfolio exposure to the Comp even further, moving to be roughly balanced with respect to long-side and short-side risk allocations.
We are falling peaks (supply reinforcement / growing supply) and falling troughs (demand removal / declining demand). Two of the three peaks are punctuated with resounding supply-side candles (i.e., black bodies and or upward pointing shadows).
The long term uptrend remains firmly intact – long term investors aren’t flinching yet!
Key demand is at 18598, but really in a zone between 18083-18598. This roughly coincides with the top half of the long term trend ribbon – the most critical area on this chart. As long as the Comp continues to close above the dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon, its bull market remains intact.
Conclusion: Short term neutral. Long term optimistic! I couldn’t add new risk here until I see at least a cluster of demand-side candles (i.e., white bodies and or downward pointing shadows) as well as a return to rising peaks an rising troughs. Last night's white bodied candle (a "fighting retreat" I like to say) is an excellent potential start.
I suspect the the balance of probability remains moderately to the downside until these technical indicators are observed.
Russell 2000 Index (RUT)
Danger stations ⚠️
The last time we covered RUT was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 2 December.
In that update, the Russell was probing all time highs. December 2! Feels like an eternity ago! 😭
It’s a very different picture today. The RUT is doing a different kind of probing – now of the critical dynamic demand we typically associate with the long term uptrend ribbon.
Price action and candles are decisive, as too is the short term trend ribbon (down and perfectly acting as a zone of dynamic supply). All three factors indicate an environment of supply-side control.
The 2170 point of demand and the long term uptrend ribbon must hold here or we’ll be short term down, long term neutral.
If, as we have discussed several times in the past, the ASX 200 tends to reflect the fortunes of the RUT more than any other major US stock index – then this chart should be concerning for Aussie investors…⚠️
What can turn it around (and let’s hope so)? You know the drill, demand-side candles and rising peaks and rising troughs.
The opposite (supply-side candles and continued falling peaks and falling troughs), threatens to crack this thing wide open…😨
Economy
Today
10:30 Westpac Consumer Sentiment
-0.7% to 92.1 vs -2.0% to 90.8 in December
"The consumer mood has soured for two months in a row and remains on the pessimistic side...However, sentiment is still less negative than a year ago and some components suggest that consumers expect things to continue to improve from here. " –Luci Ellis, Chief Economist Westpac Group
Note: readings below 100 indicate pessimism vs above 100 indicate optimism
Assessment of finances compared with a year ago biggest falling component, down 7.8% in the month to 77.7
Assessment of whether to purchase a major household purchases best rising component, up 1.8% in the month to 90.8.
The Westpac– Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index rose 2.8% to 127.2 in the month (Note: higher index reads here mean more consumers expect unemployment to rise over the year ahead)
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index. Sources Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute
Later this week
Wednesday
00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index (PPI) December (+0.2% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +3.4% p.a. previous)
Thursday
00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) December (+0.2% m/m and +3.2% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. previous)
11:30 AUS Employment Change December (+14,500 m/m forecast versus +35,600 m/m in November) and Unemployment Rate (4.0% forecast vs 3.9% in November)
Friday
00:30 USA Core Retail Sales December (+0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in November)
13:00 CHN Data Dump December
Gross Domestic Product qtr/y (+5.0% p.a. forecast vs 4.6% p.a. in September quarter)
Industrial Production y/y (+5.4% p.a. forecast vs +5.4% p.a. in November)
Retail Sales y/y (+3.5% p.a. forecast vs +3.0% p.a. in November)
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.3% p.a. forecast vs +3.3% to November / previous corresponding period)
Unemployment Rate (5.0% forecast vs 5.0% in November)
NBS Press Conference
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+15.0% Ingenia Communities Group (INA) - FY25 Guidance Increase
+12.0% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - Notification of change in substantial holding -Xingchun Wang (we broke news yesterday of the mystery Macau businessman Xingchun Wang taking a substantial (+5%) stake in the company, clearly his buying continued Monday!)
+8.9% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Lance Project Update and Conference Call and Company Presentation - January 2025
+6.7% Opthea (OPT) - Opthea's Corporate Presentation - Jan 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, recently returned to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+6.6% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, part of broader sector rotations that have seen fund flows back into Energy and Resources stocks, coal prices largely unchanged
+6.3% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, Dogs of 24 had their day today!!!
+6.0% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, Dogs of 24 had their day today!!!
+5.9% Polynovo (PNV) - No news, not quite a Dog of 24, but another countertrend move
+5.9% Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) - No news, Dogs of 24 had their day today!!!
+5.4% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, UBS retained a buy rating on the stock, price target retained at $3.40, beneficiary of broader ASX uranium sector strength today…uranium price did edge higher last night…
+5.2% Lovisa (LOV) - No news, another countertrend rally…
+4.3% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, ditto stronger ASX uranium sector
+4.0% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) - Telix Exceeds FY24 Guidance with US$142M Q4 Revenue and Telix JP Morgan Healthcare Conference 2025 Presentation
+3.7% Collins Foods (CKF) - Change in substantial holding (increase), ditto Dogs of 24 had their day today!!!
+3.4% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, ditto stronger ASX uranium sector
+3.3% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, UBS retained a buy rating on the stock, price target retained at $9.90, ditto stronger ASX uranium sector
Trading lower
-9.7% Iperionx (IPX) - No news
-9.3% Mesoblast (MSB) - Mesoblast Raises New Capital For Ryoncil Commercial Launch
-6.6% Spartan Resources (SPR) - Completion of Sale of Glenburgh and Egerton Projects
-6.2% Appen (APX) - No news, victim of broad ASX tech sector weakness today...
-5.0% Kogan.Com (KGN) - No news, victim of broad ASX discretionary sector weakness today...
-4.5% Myer (MYR) - No news, continued negative response to yesterday's Trading Update
-4.0% Life360 (360) - No news, ditto ASX tech sector weakness today…
-3.5% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) - No news, ditto ASX discretionary sector weakness today…
-3.4% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉
-3.2% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news, ditto ASX tech sector weakness today…
Broker Notes
Amaero International (3DA)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60
Alkane Resources (ALK)
Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25
Eagers Automotive (APE)
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $12.80 from $12.60
Bellevue Gold (BGL)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.80
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.70
BHP Group (BHP)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00
Boss Energy (BOE)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.40
Brambles (BXB)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $21.00 from $20.60
Charter Hall Group (CHC)
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.30 from $8.25
Capricorn Metals (CMM)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.55 from $6.20
Centuria Capital Group (CNI)
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.23 from $1.35
Centuria Office Reit (COF)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45
Dexus (DXS)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.56
Evolution Mining (EVN)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.15 from $4.50
Fortescue (FMG)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.25
Genusplus Group (GNP)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.35
Hub24 (HUB)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $73.80 from $75.50
Harvey Norman (HVN)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.00
IGO (IGO)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.45
JB HI-FI (JBH)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $77.00
Lunnon Metals (LM8)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60
Liontown Resources (LTR)
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.50
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.70 from $7.50
Mineral Resources (MIN)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.00 from $38.00
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $34.00
Newmont Corporation (NEM)
Initiated at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $76.20
Northern Star Resources (NST)
Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $20.00 from $16.60
Netwealth Group (NWL)
Downgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $28.90 from $27.00
Paladin Energy (PDN)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.90
Peninsula Energy (PEN)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.20
Pilbara Minerals (PLS)
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.40
Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.60
Premier Investments (PMV)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $30.00 from $36.00
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $27.85 from $32.40
Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $32.90 from $36.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.50 from $39.50
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.00 from $31.00
Peter Warren Automotive (PWR)
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.90
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $120.00
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $136.00
Regis Resources (RRL)
Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.05
South32 (S32)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40
St Barbara (SBM)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.39 from $0.54
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.00 from $17.00
Transurban Group (TCL)
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.33
Scans
Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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