Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 claws small gain on rising property, tech, and financials, resources slammed again on falling commodity prices

Mon 06 Jan 25, 6:03pm (AEDT)

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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 6.9 points higher, up 0.08%.

Aussie stocks slid most of the session, failing to capitalise on strong gains in US stocks, but they did manage to claw their way back into the black by the close.

Property, US exposed technology, and financial stocks prospered today – each for different reasons.

On the other hand, Resources stocks sagged as iron ore, base metals, and other bulk commodities prices (like coal) continue to fall. Add to these declines particularly sharp falls in Chinese equities over the break, and 2024’s repeated stimulus hopes rallies look cooked…

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ and S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Mon 06 Jan 25, 5:12pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,257.4 +0.08%
All Ords 8,516.5 +0.05%
Small Ords 3,119.2 -0.29%
All Tech 3,854.1 +0.67%
Emerging Companies 2,318.4 -0.77%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6229 +0.20%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,991.5 +0.03%
Dow Jones 43,000.0 -0.05%
Nasdaq 21,537.75 +0.10%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Information Technology 2,776.5 +0.80%
Real Estate 3,878.2 +0.79%
Financials 8,756.8 +0.53%
Industrials 7,781.8 +0.52%
Health Care 45,456.8 +0.52%
Energy 8,910.5 +0.50%
Utilities 9,078.6 +0.01%
Consumer Discretionary 3,944.5 -0.02%
Communication Services 1,644.7 -0.19%
Consumer Staples 11,753.2 -0.49%
Materials 16,042.0 -1.36%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 6 January 2025
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 6.9 points higher at 8,257.4, 0.42% from its session high and just 0.18% from its low. Despite the sliver of a gain at the benchmark level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dreary 114 to 163.

On a day where risk-free market yields are rising, oddly, interest rate sensitives where the best of the bunch in today’s trade.

I pretty much wrote it every other day in this Evening Wrap in 2024 – so I might as well kick us off with this reminder in this first update of 2025: Interest rates set the price of money and it’s the price of money that ultimately move stocks.

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield chart 6 January 2025
US 10-Year T-Bond Yield chart (click here for full size image)
AUS 10 Govt Bond Yield chart 6 January 2025
Australian 10-Year Bond Yield chart (click here for full size image)

So, the continued grind higher in longer term benchmark risk-free rates is disturbing with respect to broad stock market prosperity – and it coincides directly with December's unseasonal loss.

The jacking up by investors or longer term yields is happening as part of a steepening of the yield curve – which usually coincides with a stronger economy down the track – and this is perhaps why stock prices haven't completely dissolved of late.

Plus, there are some winners from a steepening yield curve – particularly banks, and I note the strength of the Financials (XFJ) (+0.53%) sector today.

The “oddly” bit refers to sectors that typically dislike higher long term yields, like Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.81%) – today’s best performing sector. But I note it was a fairly narrow move in this sector, with major constituent Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) (+1.7%) doing most of the heavy lifting.

Elsewhere, Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.80%), also a typical loser with respect to higher long term yields, prospered. Here, it was mainly due to those stocks with substantial US dollar exposure, which makes plenty of sense when one considers how far AUDUSD exchange rate has fallen of late.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Insignia Financial (IFL)

$4.06

+$0.52

+14.7%

+29.7%

+72.8%

Appen (APX)

$2.94

+$0.17

+6.1%

+23.5%

+374.2%

Block (SQ2)

$147.64

+$7.64

+5.5%

+2.6%

+39.1%

Zip Co. (ZIP)

$3.19

+$0.11

+3.6%

-6.5%

+414.5%

GQG Partners (GQG)

$2.11

+$0.06

+2.9%

+1.0%

+26.0%

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

$23.28

+$0.46

+2.0%

-4.4%

+129.1%

Goodman Group (GMG)

$37.17

+$0.64

+1.8%

-2.5%

+52.9%

Xero (XRO)

$170.97

+$2.8

+1.7%

-3.5%

+57.0%

Life360 (360)

$22.80

+$0.31

+1.4%

-13.8%

+204.8%

Wisetech Global (WTC)

$126.23

+$1.65

+1.3%

-1.2%

+70.6%

Challenger (CGF)

$6.09

+$0.07

+1.2%

-2.7%

-4.7%

Netwealth Group (NWL)

$28.90

+$0.25

+0.9%

-4.7%

+90.6%

Centuria Office Reit (COF)

$1.165

+$0.01

+0.9%

-3.3%

-11.1%

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

$14.78

+$0.12

+0.8%

-5.1%

+28.2%

Pexa Group (PXA)

$13.11

+$0.1

+0.8%

-1.4%

+21.4%

National Australia Bank (NAB)

$37.83

+$0.28

+0.7%

-4.5%

+23.7%

Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

$88.92

+$0.63

+0.7%

+1.1%

+31.7%

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

$8.98

+$0.06

+0.7%

-2.6%

-50.1%

Hub24 (HUB)

$70.05

+$0.46

+0.7%

-6.9%

+98.2%

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

$156.02

+$0.99

+0.6%

-1.1%

+39.1%

AMP (AMP)

$1.620

+$0.01

+0.6%

+0.6%

+75.1%

Macquarie Group (MQG)

$224.47

+$1.38

+0.6%

-3.9%

+23.8%

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

$19.81

+$0.12

+0.6%

-2.1%

+33.9%

Scentre Group (SCG)

$3.55

+$0.02

+0.6%

-3.8%

+20.7%

Catapult Group International (CAT)

$3.58

+$0.02

+0.6%

-3.5%

+172.2%

Today’s best performing ASX stocks from the best performing ASX sectors

Bringing up the rear, like they did so many times in 2024, were Resources (XJR) (-1.1%). I note the closely related Materials (XMJ) (-1.4%) was today’s worst performing major sector index.

Iron ore, base metals, and other bulk commodities prices (like coal) continue to sag. Add to these declines particularly sharp falls in Chinese equities over the break, and 2024’s repeated stimulus hopes rallies look cooked…

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

$0.985

-$0.16

-14.0%

-21.8%

-40.5%

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

$0.630

-$0.03

-4.5%

-6.0%

+162.5%

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

$2.66

-$0.1

-3.6%

+3.9%

+234.6%

Iperionx (IPX)

$5.33

-$0.2

-3.6%

+19.2%

+283.5%

Larvotto Resources (LRV)

$0.555

-$0.02

-3.5%

-14.6%

+650.0%

Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS)

$3.80

-$0.1

-2.6%

-2.9%

+65.1%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$5.32

-$0.13

-2.4%

-25.1%

+86.7%

Champion Iron (CIA)

$5.80

-$0.14

-2.4%

0%

-31.7%

Imdex (IMD)

$2.33

-$0.05

-2.1%

-7.5%

+25.3%

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

$60.90

-$1.26

-2.0%

-3.1%

+1.2%

BHP Group (BHP)

$38.98

-$0.78

-2.0%

-4.1%

-21.7%

Fortescue (FMG)

$18.05

-$0.36

-2.0%

-7.1%

-37.4%

Nufarm (NUF)

$3.55

-$0.07

-1.9%

-8.5%

-31.9%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$0.560

-$0.01

-1.8%

-21.7%

-65.4%

South32 (S32)

$3.40

-$0.06

-1.7%

-6.1%

+1.8%

Rio Tinto (RIO)

$115.44

-$2.03

-1.7%

-3.0%

-14.3%

Westgold Resources (WGX)

$2.85

-$0.05

-1.7%

+1.4%

+37.0%

Orica (ORI)

$16.32

-$0.28

-1.7%

-11.0%

+2.4%

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

$6.37

-$0.1

-1.5%

-0.8%

+35.2%

Brickworks (BKW)

$25.06

-$0.37

-1.5%

-4.8%

-8.4%

Today’s worst performing ASX stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors

There's plenty of catch up required in ChartWatch to explain what's happened and why since our last update, and I will kick us off this evening with analysis of the NASDAQ and S&P/ASX 200 charts.


ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

NASDAQ Composite Index chart 3 January 2025
Hanging in there... (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered the Comp was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 24 December.

In that update, we were bouncing back after the massive 18-Dec supply side candle (you can’t miss it – it’s the long black one dumping from the 20205 all time high!)

I noted that whilst the couple of demand side candles on 22 and 23-Dec were solid – more confirmation was required to set a base for making new highs into the New Year.

Looking at the chart above, I propose that confirmation is still yet to come. It is reassuring that 19168 has held so far, but I note the last trough low at 19117, along with the lower peak at 20070 (not labelled in chart), puts us in lower peaks and lower troughs territory.

This means we're witnessing supply reinforcement and demand removal – a sign of supply-side control – albeit minor for now.

Friday’s candle is encouraging: a decent white showing with a session-high close. There's still demand lurking in the system...but is it enough to set us back on a bullish course? 🤔

The short term trend ribbon has neutralised, and this along with the prevailing price action, suggests an environment of equilibrium in demand vs supply terms.

So, as a trend trader, I must simply wait. Wait until either side begins to show the tell-tale signs of control.

For the demand-side win I’ll be watching for rising troughs / rising peaks and or demand-side candles (i.e., white bodies and or downward pointing shadows). A close above 20070, but preferably above 20205 is important here.

For the supply-side win, I’ll be watching for continued falling peaks / falling troughs and or supply-side candles (i.e., black bodies and or upward pointing shadows). A close below 19117 would confirm supply-side control and likely set the Comp up for a test of the next point of demand at 18598. Dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon (still very much intact) is not far behind (presently 17500-18265).

Until either of the above scenarios prevail, I prefer to stay the course with respect to the long term uptrend, albeit with reduced overall portfolio exposure – keeping some powder dry. I might even add some sneaky but limited short exposure on some nice downtrends here and there if I can find it.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P-ASX 200 (XJO) chart 6 January 2025
Also hanging in there! (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered the XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 23 December.

In that update, we were observing end of year shenanigans that resulted in a long white candle with a close on the session high. Regardless of the reason, importantly that candle held the dynamic demand at the long term uptrend ribbon.

So far, that long term uptrend ribbon is holding firm. Could it be the fund managers are also using my ribbon!? 🤔

I doubt it!

Since then, it’s been relatively quiet compared the sustained and sharp sell off that preceded that white candle, and which inflicted the bulk of the unseasonal December loss.

I note the last trough low of 8146 is higher than 8051. That’s encouraging, and it’s further evidence that the long term trend ribbon is holding. There is still some motivated demand in the system.

Now to supply.

We looked at the supply lurking at the last peak high at 8282 today – and we didn’t like what we saw (today’s upward pointing shadow). The XJO must close above that level to solidify the demand-base we’re building at the long term uptrend ribbon, and therefore to give us any chance of returning to the 8515 high.

I see 8282-8342 acting as a potentially stubborn zone of supply that must be overcome – and overcome preferably sooner rather than later.

As always, demand-side candles are required to make this happen – we don’t want to see black candles or upward pointing shadows in 8282-8342 as it could indicate we're rolling over again.

I should also note that the short term trend ribbon is showing a downtrend, and it is also likely played a role in today’s price action vis-à-vis the dynamic supply it tends to provide.

Taking all of the above into account, I suggest we're in a state of modest supply-side control in the short term. If it persists, I don't want to see a close below 8146, and I suggest that a close below 8051 would be disastrous in terms of what is potentially signals about the sustainability of the long term uptrend.

So, again, I’m prepared to continue to back the long term uptrend here, sticking with strong individual stock uptrends where I can find them. Having said this, I prefer to operate at a reduced overall portfolio risk level, keeping some powder dry, as well as adding some strategic short exposure as a hedge.


Economy

Today

  • Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December

    • +52.2 vs 51.4 forecast and 51.5 in November

    • Values above 50 = expansion in sector, so Chinese services sector expanded faster than expected

    • Was the fastest rate rate of expansion in seven months

Later this week

Tuesday

  • 11:30 AUS Building Approvals November m/m (-0.9% forecast vs +4.2% in October)

  • 21:00 EUR Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate December y/y (+2.7% p.a. vs +2.7% p.a. in November)

Wednesday

  • 02:00 USA ISM Services PMI December (53.2 forecast vs 52.1 in November)

  • 02:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings December (7.77 million forecast vs 7.74 million in November)

  • 11:30 AUS CPI December y/y (2.2% p.a. forecast vs 2.1% in November)

Thursday

  • 06:00 USA Federal Reserve FOMC meeting December minutes

  • 11:30 AUS Retail Sales November m/m (+1.0% forecast vs +0.6% in October)

  • 12:30 CHN CPI December y/y (+0.1% forecast vs +0.2% in November)

  • 12:30 CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) December y/y (-2.5% forecast vs -2.5% in November)

Saturday

  • 00:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change December (+154,000 forecast vs +227,000 in November)

  • 00:30 USA Unemployment Rate (4.2% forecast vs 4.2% in November)

  • 00:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings December m/m (+0.3% forecast vs +0.4% in November)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +14.7% Insignia Financial (IFL) - IFL Receives Indicative Non-binding Proposal

  • +12.8% Imugene (IMU) - Continued positive response to Friday's First Australian Patient Dosed in Phase 1b azer-cel Trial

  • +6.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends 🔎📈

  • +6.1% Appen (APX) - No news, generally stronger tech sector today - particularly those with substantial US dollar exposure, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

  • +5.9% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, continued positive response to Friday's news that Cameco’s (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) Inkai joint venture project in Kazakhstan has suspended uranium production.

  • +5.7% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector today (as shorts continue to build regardless - see Change in substantial holding!)

  • +5.5% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector today

  • +5.5% Block (SQ2) - No news, ditto strong tech stocks with substantial US dollar exposure

  • +5.1% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector today

  • +4.7% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector today

Trading lower

  • -14.0% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - Production and guidance update, generally weaker ASX gold sector today on lower gold price, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

  • -9.6% Brainchip (BRN) - Change of Director's Interest Notice, likely a pullback after a strong move up over the last couple of weeks

  • -7.5% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with long-term downtrend 🔎📉

  • -6.8% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Peninsula Energy Appoints George Bauk as MD & CEO

  • -5.7% Alcoa Corporation (AAI) - No news, generally weaker ASX resources stocks today likely on sharp falls in Chinese equities over the break

  • -4.5% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto weaker ASX gold sector, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend 🔎📉

  • -4.0% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -3.5% Megaport (MP1) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -3.5% Kelsian Group (KLS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -3.3% Droneshield (DRO) - $9.7 million Latin American contract, fall is consistent with prevailing long-term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -3.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈


Broker Notes

(Broker notes are scant to say the least at this time of the year! They will begin to pick up from next week)

  • Astral Resources (AAR)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.39

  • Emerald Resources (EMR)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00

  • Bellevue Gold (BGL)

    • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.25


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
T88 Taiton Resources Ltd $0.14 +55.56%
SUM Summit Minerals Ltd $0.205 +36.67%
MAG Magmatic Resource... $0.042 +27.27%
CYC Cyclopharm Ltd $2.00 +25.00%
FTL Firetail Resource... $0.07 +22.81%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
D3E D3 Energy Ltd $0.068 -15.00%
AON Apollo Minerals Ltd $0.012 -14.29%
PPY Papyrus Australia... $0.012 -14.29%
LM8 Lunnon Metals Ltd $0.215 -14.00%
BGL Bellevue Gold Ltd $0.985 -13.97%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
CYC Cyclopharm Ltd $2.00 +25.00%
IFL Insignia Financia... $4.06 +14.69%
NVA Nova Minerals Ltd $0.435 +11.54%
MAP Microba Life Scie... $0.235 +9.30%
QPM QPM Energy Ltd $0.062 +8.77%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
D3E D3 Energy Ltd $0.068 -15.00%
AON Apollo Minerals Ltd $0.012 -14.29%
BGL Bellevue Gold Ltd $0.985 -13.97%
YOW Yowie Group Ltd $0.022 -12.00%
C29 C29 Metals Ltd $0.036 -10.00%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
PCI Perpetual Credit ... $1.17 0.00%
WVOL Ishares MSCI Worl... $42.20 -0.33%
AII Almonty Industrie... $1.115 +4.21%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.05 0.00%
VVLU Vanguard Global V... $73.56 +0.26%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
GRR Grange Resources Ltd $0.22 0.00%
NTD Ntaw Holdings Ltd $0.245 -3.92%
SEK Seek Ltd $22.13 -1.21%
UTIP Betashares Inflat... $25.09 -0.28%
ORI Orica Ltd $16.32 -1.69%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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