Market Wraps

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 bounces on tech strength + Stocks tend to rise in January

Mon 06 Jan 25, 8:34am (AEDT)

ASX 200 futures are trading 23 points higher, up 0.27%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Kerry here Happy new year, I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. I've been offline for the past month, so please bear with me as I catch up and get back up to speed.

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day losing streak to rally 1.2% last Friday, China's main benchmark kicked off the new year with a three-day skid and down more than 4.0%, US manufacturing data surprises to the upside and approaching expansion territory and January has historically been a positive month for equities (including the ASX 200).

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Mon 06 Jan 25, 8:21am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500 5,942 +1.26%
Dow Jones 42,732 +0.80%
NASDAQ Comp 19,622 +1.77%
Russell 2000 2,268 +1.72%
Country Indices
Canada 25,074 +0.71%
China 3,211 -1.57%
Germany 19,906 -0.59%
Hong Kong 19,760 +0.70%
India 79,223 -0.90%
Japan 39,895 -0.96%
United Kingdom 8,224 -0.44%
Name Value % Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold 2,654.7 -0.68%
Iron Ore 99.44 -1.65%
Copper 4.0735 +0.98%
WTI Oil 73.96 +1.15%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6217 +0.21%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD) 98,280 -0.40%
Ethereum (AUD) 5,844 -0.69%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond 4.596 +0.46%
VIX 16.13 -10.04%

US Sectors

Mon 06 Jan 25, 8:21am (AEDT)

SECTOR % CHG
Consumer Discretionary +2.42%
Information Technology +1.62%
Real Estate +1.35%
Industrials +1.11%
Utilities +1.10%
Health Care +0.99%
SECTOR % CHG
Energy +0.90%
Communication Services +0.79%
Financials +0.79%
Consumer Staples +0.10%
Materials +0.03%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

SPX 2025-01-06 08-06-58
S&P 500 gaps up, trends higher intraday to finish near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

  • Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels 

  • Tech and Discretionary stocks led to the upside, including Tesla (+8.2%), Nvidia (+4.4%) and Amazon (+1.8%)

  • Despite the uptick, markets remain relatively heavy and bearish – Only 39% of S&P 500 stocks are higher since reporting earnings in Nov/Oct

  • S&P 500 finished December down 2.5% compared to a historical gain of 1.3% over the month and up almost 80% of the time, according to Dow Jones data going back to 1950

  • Without the Magnificent 7, the S&P 500 would have only gained 4.1% in 2023 and 6.3% in 2024 on a price return basis (vs. actual price returns of 24.2% and 23.3% respectively)

  • Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF posts record outflow after banner year, experiencing highest daily net outflow of US$333m last Friday (BBG)

  • Investors sell gold ETFs for fourth year, even with Fed easing as US election results send US dollar soaring (BBG)

  • Bond traders see fraught year ahead as Trump shadows outlook, futures pricing in only two quarter-point Fed cuts in 2025 (BBG)

  • China stimulus, tariffs, Fed – What will move stocks in 2025 (BBG)

  • Chinese stocks tumble in worst start to year since 2016, with CSI 300 Index down 2.9% last Thursday (BBG)

STOCKS

  • Getty Images explores merger with rival Shutterstock (BBG)

  • iPhone maker Hon Hai clinches sales beat on strong AI demand, December sales NT$655bn up 42% year-on-year (BBG)

  • Stellantis, Volkswagen shares drop after losing US EV subsidy, European manufacturer brace for tougher business in the US (BBG)

ECONOMY

  • US Manufacturing PMI rises to nine-month high of 49.3 in December vs. economist expectations of 48.4 (RT)

Industry ETFs

Mon 06 Jan 25, 8:21am (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Commodities
Uranium 28.84 +2.60%
Strategic Metals 40.02 +1.60%
Lithium & Battery Tech 40.68 +1.40%
Copper Miners 38.96 +1.14%
Silver 26.98 +0.19%
Steel 57.7989 -0.55%
Gold Miners 35.0 -0.96%
Industrials
Construction 76.965 +1.97%
Aerospace & Defense 146.2 +0.93%
Global Jets 25.13 +0.12%
Agriculture 26.49 -0.49%
Healthcare
Biotechnology 134.15 +0.93%
Name Value % Chg
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24.0 +1.10%
Renewables
Hydrogen 25.34 +4.28%
CleanTech 7.21 +1.55%
Solar 35.15 +1.21%
Technology
FinTech 32.2 +3.01%
Semiconductor 222.47 +2.61%
Cloud Computing 24.4 +1.92%
Robotics & AI 32.95 +1.92%
Video Games/eSports 85.45 +1.77%
Electric Vehicles 23.38 +1.43%
Sports Betting/Gaming 19.05 +1.22%
Cybersecurity 32.49 +1.12%
E-commerce 27.74 +0.73%

ASX TODAY

  • ASX 200 set to open 0.27% higher, which will help push the benchmark above key moving averages such as the 20 and 50 day

  • January has historically been a positive month for Australian equities, with the ASX 200 up an average 0.68% (price return basis) and positive 60% of the time over the past ten years

  • The market tends to be extremely light on the announcement front until mid-January There won't be many announcements to highlight in the meantime

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

  • Tech: Solid overnight session for the Nasdaq (although this strength reflects crowding in some mega cap names). Let's see if this translates to some strength and stabilisation for local names like Xero, Wisetech etc. most of which are trying to find their footing after a 5-10% pullback from highs.

  • Resources: Several interesting moves overnight in the resources space. Oil is on a four-day winning streak and up 4.5% so far this year, gold prices pulled back 0.7% amid an uptick in bond yields and solid US economic data, aluminium prices have been relatively rangebound for the past few months but dipped 1.4% to a fresh four-month low.

  • Uranium: Global X Uranium ETF up 2.6% overnight and 7.7% in the last two sessions to highest level since 13 December 2024. This should see some follow through strength for local URA names.

BROKER MOVES

There are no broker moves today as most of them are on holidays.

Key Events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

  • Mon 6 Jan: Eumundi Group (EBG) – 1.42%, Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – 0.68%

  • Tue 7 Jan: None

  • Wed 8 Jan: Katana Capital (KAT) – 0.40%

  • Thu 9 Jan: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – 1.36%

  • Fri 10 Jan: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

  • Dividends paid: Collins Foods (CKF) 

  • Listing: None

  • Earnings: None

  • AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

  • 11:00 pm: Germany Inflation (Dec)

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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