Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 bounces on tech strength + Stocks tend to rise in January
ASX 200 futures are trading 23 points higher, up 0.27%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.
In this article
ASX 200 futures are trading 23 points higher, up 0.27%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.
Kerry here – Happy new year, I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. I've been offline for the past month, so please bear with me as I catch up and get back up to speed.
The S&P 500 snapped a four-day losing streak to rally 1.2% last Friday, China's main benchmark kicked off the new year with a three-day skid and down more than 4.0%, US manufacturing data surprises to the upside and approaching expansion territory and January has historically been a positive month for equities (including the ASX 200).
Let's dive in.
Overnight Summary
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
 S&P 500 | 5,942 | +1.26% |
Dow Jones | 42,732 | +0.80% |
NASDAQ Comp | 19,622 | +1.77% |
Russell 2000 | 2,268 | +1.72% |
Country Indices | ||
 Canada | 25,074 | +0.71% |
 China | 3,211 | -1.57% |
 Germany | 19,906 | -0.59% |
 Hong Kong | 19,760 | +0.70% |
 India | 79,223 | -0.90% |
 Japan | 39,895 | -0.96% |
 United Kingdom | 8,224 | -0.44% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities (USD) | ||
 Gold | 2,654.7 | -0.68% |
 Iron Ore | 99.44 | -1.65% |
 Copper | 4.0735 | +0.98% |
 WTI Oil | 73.96 | +1.15% |
Currency | ||
 AUD/USD | 0.6217 | +0.21% |
Cryptocurrency | ||
 Bitcoin (USD) | 98,280 | -0.40% |
 Ethereum (AUD) | 5,844 | -0.69% |
Miscellaneous | ||
US 10 Yr T-bond | 4.596 | +0.46% |
VIX | 16.13 | -10.04% |
US Sectors
Sector | % Chg |
|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | +2.42% |
| Information Technology | +1.62% |
| Real Estate | +1.35% |
| Industrials | +1.11% |
| Utilities | +1.10% |
| Health Care | +0.99% |
Sector | % Chg |
|---|---|
| Energy | +0.90% |
| Communication Services | +0.79% |
| Financials | +0.79% |
| Consumer Staples | +0.10% |
| Materials | +0.03% |
S&P 500 SESSION CHART
S&P 500 gaps up, trends higher intraday to finish near best levels (Source: TradingView)
OVERNIGHT MARKETS
Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels
Tech and Discretionary stocks led to the upside, including Tesla (+8.2%), Nvidia (+4.4%) and Amazon (+1.8%)
Despite the uptick, markets remain relatively heavy and bearish – Only 39% of S&P 500 stocks are higher since reporting earnings in Nov/Oct
S&P 500 finished December down 2.5% compared to a historical gain of 1.3% over the month and up almost 80% of the time, according to Dow Jones data going back to 1950
Without the Magnificent 7, the S&P 500 would have only gained 4.1% in 2023 and 6.3% in 2024 on a price return basis (vs. actual price returns of 24.2% and 23.3% respectively)
Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF posts record outflow after banner year, experiencing highest daily net outflow of US$333m last Friday (BBG)
Investors sell gold ETFs for fourth year, even with Fed easing as US election results send US dollar soaring (BBG)
Bond traders see fraught year ahead as Trump shadows outlook, futures pricing in only two quarter-point Fed cuts in 2025 (BBG)
China stimulus, tariffs, Fed – What will move stocks in 2025 (BBG)
Chinese stocks tumble in worst start to year since 2016, with CSI 300 Index down 2.9% last Thursday (BBG)
STOCKS
Getty Images explores merger with rival Shutterstock (BBG)
iPhone maker Hon Hai clinches sales beat on strong AI demand, December sales NT$655bn up 42% year-on-year (BBG)
Stellantis, Volkswagen shares drop after losing US EV subsidy, European manufacturer brace for tougher business in the US (BBG)
ECONOMY
US Manufacturing PMI rises to nine-month high of 49.3 in December vs. economist expectations of 48.4 (RT)
Industry ETFs
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Commodities | ||
| Uranium | 28.84 | +2.60% |
| Strategic Metals | 40.02 | +1.60% |
| Lithium & Battery Tech | 40.68 | +1.40% |
| Copper Miners | 38.96 | +1.14% |
| Silver | 26.98 | +0.19% |
| Steel | 57.7989 | -0.55% |
| Gold Miners | 35.0 | -0.96% |
Industrials | ||
| Construction | 76.965 | +1.97% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 146.2 | +0.93% |
| Global Jets | 25.13 | +0.12% |
| Agriculture | 26.49 | -0.49% |
Healthcare | ||
| Biotechnology | 134.15 | +0.93% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Cryptocurrency | ||
| Bitcoin | 24.0 | +1.10% |
Renewables | ||
| Hydrogen | 25.34 | +4.28% |
| CleanTech | 7.21 | +1.55% |
| Solar | 35.15 | +1.21% |
Technology | ||
| FinTech | 32.2 | +3.01% |
| Semiconductor | 222.47 | +2.61% |
| Cloud Computing | 24.4 | +1.92% |
| Robotics & AI | 32.95 | +1.92% |
| Video Games/eSports | 85.45 | +1.77% |
| Electric Vehicles | 23.38 | +1.43% |
| Sports Betting/Gaming | 19.05 | +1.22% |
| Cybersecurity | 32.49 | +1.12% |
| E-commerce | 27.74 | +0.73% |
ASX TODAY
ASX 200 set to open 0.27% higher, which will help push the benchmark above key moving averages such as the 20 and 50 day
January has historically been a positive month for Australian equities, with the ASX 200 up an average 0.68% (price return basis) and positive 60% of the time over the past ten years
The market tends to be extremely light on the announcement front until mid-January – There won't be many announcements to highlight in the meantime
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
Tech: Solid overnight session for the Nasdaq (although this strength reflects crowding in some mega cap names). Let's see if this translates to some strength and stabilisation for local names like Xero, Wisetech etc. most of which are trying to find their footing after a 5-10% pullback from highs.
Resources: Several interesting moves overnight in the resources space. Oil is on a four-day winning streak and up 4.5% so far this year, gold prices pulled back 0.7% amid an uptick in bond yields and solid US economic data, aluminium prices have been relatively rangebound for the past few months but dipped 1.4% to a fresh four-month low.
Uranium: Global X Uranium ETF up 2.6% overnight and 7.7% in the last two sessions to highest level since 13 December 2024. This should see some follow through strength for local URA names.
BROKER MOVES
There are no broker moves today as most of them are on holidays.
Key Events
Stocks trading ex-dividend:
Mon 6 Jan: Eumundi Group (EBG) – 1.42%, Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – 0.68%
Tue 7 Jan: None
Wed 8 Jan: Katana Capital (KAT) – 0.40%
Thu 9 Jan: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – 1.36%
Fri 10 Jan: None
Other ASX corporate actions today:
Dividends paid: Collins Foods (CKF)
Listing: None
Earnings: None
AGMs: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
11:00 pm: Germany Inflation (Dec)
