The S&P/ASX 200 closed 102.2 points lower, down 1.23%.
Aussie stocks plunged as a result of a massive "Friday night fright" in the US. It wasn't pretty, unless your portfolio is skewed towards resources (mainly gold), and energy stocks. If that's the case...today's trade on the ASX was beautiful! π
Tonight's Wrap contains detailed explanations of what went wrong and what went right for Aussie stocks today, as well as the key market indicators you'll need to continue to watch to stay abreast of rapidly developing proceedings.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Bond Yields and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Mon 13 Jan 25, 5:05pm (AEDT)
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The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 102.2 points lower at 8,191.9, 1.25% from its session high and just 0.38% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 55 to 223.
Friday night fright.
That’s how one might describe the market response to substantially stronger than expected US Non-Farm Payroll data released on Friday night our time.
That’s good news for the US economy. More jobs, more demand from businesses who see better trade, more spending from those who are employed, equals better trade at businesses…equals stronger economic growth…equals higher stock market earnings…equals higher stock prices. Right?
In theory yes. And it usually does. Unless you have a market obsessed with the Federal Reserve continuing to slash interest rates.
Which it is (i.e. the market) and it was (i.e. the Fed) but it probably won't anymore (i.e., the Fed again).
Because markets want their cake, and they want to eat it too. This is capitalism baby! More cake, more consumption…more, more, more!
But, after that stonking US employment report, markets are going to get less...as in less in terms of cheap money from the Fed. Woe is us.
Higher rates, and let me add at this point – I have even more analysis in pictures in ChartWatch below – are usually bad news for stock prices (at least in the short term).
The yields on key US bonds (and here today on our own) continued their recent ascent, putting pressure on those sectors of the market that are most susceptible to higher yields, like:
Information Technology (XIJ) (-3.3%) (typically high PE Ratios and far out earnings ("long duration") = greatest to lose from increased discounting of those far out earnings)
Financials (XFJ) (-2.1%) (typically high yield, but unlike bonds, are risky = their yields look less attractive now)
Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.9%) (higher market yields inevitably translate into higher borrowing rates for consumers = lower spending on discretionary items)
Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-1.7%) (ditto high yielding, bond-like investments – only unlike bonds – are risky!)
Health Care (XHJ) (-1.5%) (typically a defensive sector, but our healthcare sector is dominated by high PE Ratio stocks with long earnings durations = ditto tech sector impacts)
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Myer (MYR) | $0.880 | -$0.265 | -23.1% | -27.6% | +44.3% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | $27.78 | -$5.26 | -15.9% | -20.7% | +3.7% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $27.36 | -$3.02 | -9.9% | -5.7% | +75.2% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | $3.40 | -$0.25 | -6.8% | -2.3% | +165.6% |
Weebit Nano (WBT) | $2.62 | -$0.19 | -6.8% | -6.4% | -28.2% |
Accent Group (AX1) | $2.22 | -$0.15 | -6.3% | -9.0% | +7.8% |
Hub24 (HUB) | $67.85 | -$4.5 | -6.2% | -4.6% | +88.8% |
Nuix (NXL) | $5.47 | -$0.35 | -6.0% | -14.9% | +165.5% |
Rpmglobal (RUL) | $2.75 | -$0.17 | -5.8% | -12.1% | +59.9% |
Life360 (360) | $22.22 | -$1.27 | -5.4% | -2.4% | +218.3% |
Pro Medicus (PME) | $254.01 | -$14.37 | -5.4% | +4.0% | +174.3% |
Regis Healthcare (REG) | $6.08 | -$0.32 | -5.0% | -5.4% | +88.8% |
Gentrack Group (GTK) | $10.67 | -$0.49 | -4.4% | -12.3% | +76.4% |
Block (SQ2) | $134.31 | -$6.02 | -4.3% | -9.9% | +28.6% |
Lifestyle Communities (LIC) | $8.28 | -$0.35 | -4.1% | -0.2% | -51.9% |
Bravura Solutions (BVS) | $2.18 | -$0.09 | -4.0% | +0.5% | +170.8% |
Nextdc (NXT) | $14.79 | -$0.61 | -4.0% | -5.8% | +13.4% |
GQG Partners (GQG) | $1.765 | -$0.07 | -3.8% | -21.9% | +0.9% |
Guzman y Gomez (GYG) | $37.69 | -$1.47 | -3.8% | -11.9% | 0% |
Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) | $23.16 | -$0.9 | -3.7% | +1.8% | +134.2% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $121.02 | -$4.5 | -3.6% | -3.6% | +68.4% |
Data#3 (DTL) | $6.15 | -$0.22 | -3.5% | -17.7% | -26.3% |
Universal Store (UNI) | $8.11 | -$0.29 | -3.5% | +3.7% | +90.8% |
Hansen Technologies (HSN) | $5.06 | -$0.18 | -3.4% | -5.8% | +2.8% |
Breville Group (BRG) | $34.83 | -$1.23 | -3.4% | -5.9% | +30.9% |
But there were places to hide today. Namely in those sectors that may benefit from better US and potentially as a result, global economic growth, like:
Resources (XJR) (+0.30%) (small gain today, because whilst many commodities rose on Friday, higher market yields can crimp global economic growth)
Gold (XGD) (+0.52%) sub-index (the gold price rose sharply after the jobs report because gold is seen as a major beneficiary of the bond market sell off, also potentially of the higher inflation that may come from stronger economic growth)
Utilities (XUJ) (+0.8%) (US sanctions on Russian energy commodities sharply boosted the prices of those commodities, and our Utilities sector happens to contain stocks that are also energy commodity producers)
Energy (XEJ) (+1.8%) (rallied because of ditto above – the Dog sector of 2024 may finally be having its day…as the rest of 2024’s winners crumble around it!)
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) | $6.15 | +$0.22 | +3.7% | +3.0% | +154.1% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $2.24 | +$0.08 | +3.7% | +2.8% | +31.0% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.460 | +$0.05 | +3.5% | +5.4% | -25.5% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | $8.18 | +$0.27 | +3.4% | +7.3% | -22.8% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.240 | +$0.04 | +3.3% | -0.4% | +6.9% |
Beach Energy (BPT) | $1.480 | +$0.04 | +2.8% | +18.9% | -4.5% |
Santos (STO) | $7.12 | +$0.15 | +2.2% | +8.0% | -5.1% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $25.77 | +$0.51 | +2.0% | +6.8% | -16.5% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | $35.08 | +$0.68 | +2.0% | -5.6% | -44.3% |
AGL Energy (AGL) | $11.52 | +$0.19 | +1.7% | +5.5% | +23.6% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $7.10 | +$0.11 | +1.6% | +1.3% | +13.2% |
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | $6.05 | +$0.09 | +1.5% | -7.6% | -26.4% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $2.80 | +$0.04 | +1.4% | -1.8% | +28.4% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $16.78 | +$0.21 | +1.3% | -0.7% | +32.2% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $5.24 | +$0.06 | +1.2% | -0.9% | +40.5% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $2.75 | +$0.03 | +1.1% | +0.4% | +73.0% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | $11.19 | +$0.11 | +1.0% | +5.3% | +34.3% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | $2.61 | +$0.02 | +0.8% | +2.4% | -47.3% |
Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.67 | +$0.02 | +0.8% | 0% | -22.6% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $3.02 | +$0.02 | +0.7% | +7.9% | +357.6% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | $4.88 | +$0.03 | +0.6% | -3.0% | -9.1% |
IGO (IGO) | $4.97 | +$0.03 | +0.6% | -2.2% | -36.0% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | $1.945 | +$0.01 | +0.5% | -1.0% | +59.2% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $2.20 | +$0.01 | +0.5% | -3.9% | -40.4% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.66 | +$0.01 | +0.4% | -4.0% | +53.3% |
Have I mentioned that nothing important happens in the stock market without the cue first coming from the bond market?
Also, that the reason for this is the bond market sets the price of money, and the price of money sets the price of all other assets.
So, if you want to understand whether money is more likely to flow into or out of the stock market at a macro level, you absolutely must understand what's happening in the price of money market.
Don't worry, you don't have to be clever enough to work on the Bond Desk at Macquarie's Global Market division to understand the key aspects, you just need to understand these 3 basic facts:
Bond yields of major governments, e.g. the USA, are considered to be risk free – because governments always* pay their IOUs (bonds are just fancy IOUs with interest). So bond yields are generally considered to represent the "risk-free market yield" over a particular duration (e.g., 2-years, 5-years, 10-years, 30-years)
When the risk-free market yields rise, the yields on risky assets like stocks looks less attractive, so investors usually sell down the prices of those risky assets, forcing their yields higher as new owners require more to want to own those risky assets
When the risk-free market yields fall, the yields on risky assets like stocks looks more attractive, so investors usually bid up the prices of those risky assets, forcing their yields lower as new owners require less to want to own those risky assets
That's the gist of it anyway. Right now, we're very much in Scenario 2 as can be seen by the above two charts of US 10-year T-Bonds / 10-year risk-free market yields and Australian 10-year Government Bonds.
There are some more stock-related nuances, for example, higher risk-free market yields also increase the rate at which stock market analysts discount the future earnings of companies. Basically, the higher the risk-free market yield, greater the discount, and therefore the lower the valuation the analyst will derive for a company's shares.
Put all of the above together, and we begin to explain why Aussie stocks (and stocks in many other places) got belted today.
For long suffering readers of ChartWatch, you already knew all this stuff – and you also know how to read a chart. This means you've already figured out things looks dicey to say the last with respect to ever-rising 10's yields.
What you perhaps don't know because I've never run these charts before...is the potential bigger picture view. For this, see the monthly charts of the US and AU 10's below.
We're looking at a generational shift here. If these above charts were of a stock or a commodity, you know I'd be saying something like:
"The price is in a short term uptrend, there's rising peaks and rising troughs, and predominantly demand-side candles...the price action is consolidating above the trend ribbons which are both now acting as dynamic demand...therefore the long term trend has changed to up...this is a demand-side market."
Of course there's no such thing as a demand-side market for yields...it actually corresponds to a supply-side market for bonds...but let's not get too technical here!
In short, as in, in the short term...both short term and long term risk-free market yields appear to be in uptrends. The trend is your friend / not your friend until it isn't.
(*Always means always unless it’s the end of capitalism as we know it, and in that case, it probably won’t matter because you’ll have bigger concerns than “the price of money sets the price of risky assets…blah blah blah"!)
We're cactus? Right? π΅π€
Not necessarily (I'll explain below), but the grind higher in long term risk-free market yields has, is, and will likely to continue to create headwinds for stocks.
Not all stocks are impacted equally by the current environment, some thrive during periods of higher long-term market yields. Also, if those long term yields are rising because investors are pricing higher economic growth down the track – it can be a good thing in the long term for stock markets.
There's usually an adjustment process to higher long term market yields in the short term, as funds are caught off guard by the shift, and as investors price the risk of that predicted future growth not materialising. That's our worst case scenario, higher yields without higher growth. No stock investor wants that!
Let's do some technical analysis.
The point of demand at 8282 has fallen, the next lower point is 8146, and then 8051. This demand zone, now roughly coinciding with the dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon is critical – and must be held!
The short term trend is neutral, but is trending lower, the price action still shows rising peaks and rising troughs. Candles are mixed, but today's candle is a solid showing by the supply-side.
Overall, it really does smack of neutrality. Of broad equilibrium between demand and supply. Not a write off and not panic stations yet. But there clearly are developing chinks in the bull market's armor.
A close above the point of supply at 8371 – and quickly – is vital here. We want some assurance the demand-side has not lost its nerve.
Today
AUS TD-MI Inflation Gauge December
+0.6% m/m vs +0.2% m/m in November
Highest monthly increase in 12 months (which sounds bad...)
But No 1: +2.6% p.a. was better than November's +2.9% p.a. (i.e., that doesn't sound too bad!)
But No 2: If you annualise +0.6% per month you get +7.2% p.a. = π±
Tuesday
10:30 Westpac Consumer Sentiment (-2.0% to 90.8 forecast vs +5.3% in December)
Wednesday
00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index (PPI) December (+0.2% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +3.4% p.a. previous)
Thursday
00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) December (+0.2% m/m and +3.2% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. previous)
11:30 AUS Employment Change December (+14,500 m/m forecast versus +35,600 m/m in November) and Unemployment Rate (4.0% forecast vs 3.9% in November)
Friday
00:30 USA Core Retail Sales December (+0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in November)
13:00 CHN Data Dump December
Gross Domestic Product qtr/y (+5.0% p.a. forecast vs 4.6% p.a. in September quarter)
Industrial Production y/y (+5.4% p.a. forecast vs +5.4% p.a. in November)
Retail Sales y/y (+3.5% p.a. forecast vs +3.0% p.a. in November)
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.3% p.a. forecast vs +3.3% to November / previous corresponding period)
Unemployment Rate (5.0% forecast vs 5.0% in November)
NBS Press Conference
+13.6% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - Becoming a substantial holder, what a day for this stock to rally! So, who exactly is Mr. Xingchun Wang anyway? π€
+7.1% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - US DoD to conduct paid CT VQ pilot ahead of FDA submission
+6.7% Syrah Resources (SYR) - Syrah awarded US$165 million US IRA tax credit
+5.5% Nanosonics (NAN) - No news…π€
+3.7% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Production of battery quality lithium hydroxide monohydrate, rise is consistent with prevailing long-term uptrend, lithium futures up today in China
+3.7% Gold Road Resources (GOR) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list ππ
+3.5% Karoon Energy (KAR) - No news, generally stronger ASX energy sector today on rising oil, gas and uranium prices Friday (first two related to US-Russia energy sanctions)
+3.4% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Becoming a substantial holder, ditto stronger ASX energy stocks today, retained at buy at Bell Potter (see this article)
+3.3% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, ditto stronger ASX energy stocks today
+3.2% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list ππ
+2.8% Beach Energy (BPT) - No news, ditto stronger ASX energy stocks today
+2.4% Insignia Financial (IFL) - IFL Receives Revised Indicative Non-Binding Proposal, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list ππ
+2.2% Santos (STO) - No news, ditto stronger ASX energy stocks today
+2.0% Woodside Energy Group (WDS) - No news, ditto stronger ASX energy stocks today
-23.1% Myer (MYR) - Trading Update
-15.9% Premier Investments (PMV) - Exposure to Myer
-9.9% Netwealth Group (NWL) - No news, tech / financial stocks hit hard today on rising risk-free market yields (see ChartWatch section above for detailed explanation of how higher risk-free market yields impact stocks)
-9.4% NRW (NWH) - Chief Financial Officer Resignation
-8.6% Alkane Resources (ALK) - Quarterly Activities Report
-7.7% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list ππ
-7.6% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) - No news, odd one - bucked broader Resources sector gains, rally in copper on Friday, even a positive research report from Citi (see Broker Moves section below)
-6.8% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX tech stocks
-6.8% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX tech stocks
-6.3% Accent Group (AX1) - No news, higher market rates flow through to higher borrowing costs for mortgage holders, generally a drag on discretionary consumption
-6.2% Hub24 (HUB) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX tech stocks
-6.0% Nuix (NXL) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX tech stocks
-5.6% Novonix (NVX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list ππ
-5.4% Life360 (360) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX tech stocks
-5.4% Pro Medicus (PME) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX tech stocks
-5.2% Cettire (CTT) - Change in substantial holding (decrease), ditto tough day for ASX retail stocks, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list ππ
Aussie Broadband (ABB)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.42
Adore Beauty Group (ABY)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.50
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $69.50
Eagers Automotive (APE)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.50
ARB Corporation (ARB)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $47.15
ASX (ASX)
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $65.00 from $64.90
AUB Group (AUB)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $36.80
Boss Energy (BOE)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.70
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.50
City Chic Collective (CCX)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.25
Champion Iron (CIA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.40
Cosol (COS)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.25
Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.60
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.55
Corporate Travel Management (CTD)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.90
Cettire (CTT)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.30
Endeavour Group (EDV)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.00
Electro Optic Systems (EOS)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.00
EQT (EQT)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00
EVT (EVT)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.73
Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)
Initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.00
GPT Group (GPT)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.90
GQG Partners (GQG)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00
Insignia Financial (IFL)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.05
IGO (IGO)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.30
Kogan.Com (KGN)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.50
Lightning Minerals (LAG)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.55
Light & Wonder (LNW)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $166.00
Medibank Private (MPL)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.30
NIB (NHF)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.15
NRW (NWH)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.05
Paladin Energy (PDN)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.50 from $9.70
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.00 from $21.50
Qoria (QOR)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.51
Regis Healthcare (REG)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.20
Scentre Group (SCG)
Upgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.91 from $3.60
Steadfast Group (SDF)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.70
Siteminder (SDR)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.65
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.55
The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.29
Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: NZ$1.65
Stanmore Resources (SMR)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.40
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $20.20
Tabcorp (TAH)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.58
The Lottery Corporation (TLC)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.70
Temple & Webster Group (TPW)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50
Vault Minerals (VAU)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.53
Waypoint Reit (WPR)
Initiated at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.70
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.72
Zip Co. (ZIP)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60
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