Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 little changed + Nick Scali earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 18pts (-0.21%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks mixed amid a relatively uneventful session

• Market continues to wait for more information on tariffs, Trump's call with Xi and US nonfarm payrolls tonight

• Nick Scali reported its 1H25 results, with a mixed bag of takeaways Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, finished near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished mixed, with the S&P 500 rallying into positive territory in the last hour of trade

• Tech stocks like Nvidia (+_3.0%) and Amazon (+1.1%) were broadly higher, offsetting weakness from Energy and defensive sectors

• Relatively uneventful overnight session, with no new incremental info on tariffs and markets still waiting for the Trump-Xi call

• Earnings were a mixed bag, with a number of higher-profile disappointments in tech, healthcare and autos

• Retail sentiment hit the highest on record and ~1 pt higher than the meme stock frenzy in 2021, according to JPMorgan

• Tesla, Nvidia and Alphabet among the names that have seen the strongest retail interest 

• Swift market reversals keeping traders on edge even after they prepared for Trump's tariffs (FT)

• Traders renew interest in Yen as long Dollar positions unwind (BBG)

• Gold to hit a record US$3,000 an ounce within three months due to geopolitical and trade tensions, says Citi (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• Eli Lilly (+3.4%) Q4 earnings topped analyst estimates, revenue fell short as diabetes treatment Mounjaro saw lower realised prices (CNBC)

• Ford (+0.7%) beats on Q4 results but issues muted 2025 guidance (RT)

• Arm Holdings (-3.3%) revenue guidance underwhelms, adding to concerns over AI spending (BBG)

• Qualcomm (-3.7%) Q1 earnings top estimates but shares sell off on weaker-than-expected licensing revenue outlook (BBG)

• L'Oreal sales slightly misses estimates, fourth-quarter sales increased on a like-for-like basis across all regions except North Asia (BBG)

• Tesla sales in Europe slide amid consumer backlash against Musk's political activism (FT)

• Online retailers selling on Shein and Temu facing uncertainty from revocation of de minimis rule (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bank of England cut rates by 25bp, vote split and growth outlook downgraded (RT)

• Bank of Mexico cuts rates by half a point, in line with bulk of analyst expectations (BBG)

• BOJ's Tamura argues interest rate needs to rise to 1% by 2H25 with inflation on track to hit target (BBG)

• Bank of India expected to kick off easing cycle with 25 bp interest rate cut on Friday (BBG)

TRUMP

• Global shipper Maersk's CEO says he does not expect tariffs to have a massive impact on volumes this year (FT)

• China's tariff retaliation could derail plans for US LNG expansion (YH)

• US Treasury imposes sanctions on international network supporting Iran crude shipments to China (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• US weekly jobless claims edge up to 219,000 vs. 213,000 consensus, worker productivity growth slows (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Generation Development Group to acquire Evidentia Group for approximately $320m, Evidentia provides investment advice on over $bn in assets to large wealth managers (AFR)

• Incitec Pivot seeking around $1.2bn for its fertiliser unit, not to different from the last time the unit was on offer, interested parties include Elders, Ridley, CF Industries, Nutrien and more (The Aus)

• Neuren receives FDA grant for Type C meeting to discuss primary efficacy endpoints in Neuren's planned pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial program for NNZ-2591, which is used to treat Phelan-McDermid syndrome (NEU)

• Nick Scali reports 1H25 NPAT down 22.8% to $33.2m, interim dividend down 14% to 30 cents (NCK)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Nick Scali: One of the first retailers to report. Lots of moving parts in this result. Revenue slightly ahead of consensus, unclear if underlying NPAT of $33.2m is comparable to Citi's $23.5m estimates (which indicates a ~40% beat). Interim dividend in-line. UK business reported a $4.1m loss (lower than the $5.1-5.9m loss guidance), offset by ANZ NPAT of $36m (above $30-33m profit guidance). ANZ January sales orders down 8.5%, but showed improvement in the first week of February, up 5%. Overall, 1H25 appears like a slight net positive.

• REA Group: Wild session for REA yesterday. Stock opened 2.2% lower, briefly down as much as 4.1% but finished up 1.2%. The result a broad beat (most numbers 1-2% ahead of consensus), with a softer-than-expected dividend (4.2% miss) and CEO departure. The result therefore gave investors both reasons to sell and buy. The strong underlying earnings should see some consensus upgrades follow through.

BROKER MOVES

• ARB Corp upgraded to Hold from Underperform; target remains $35 (JEF)

• REA Group upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target up to $283 from $217 (CLSA)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 7 Feb: None

• Mon 10 Feb: Euroz Hartleys Group (EZL) – $0.02

• Tue 11 Feb: None

• Wed 12 Feb: ResMed (RMD) – $0.06

• Thu 13 Feb: Korvest (KOV) – $0.25, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006

• Fri 14 Feb: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Hotel Property Investments (HPI) 

• Listing: None

• Earnings: Nick Scali (NCK)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 2:30 pm: India Rate Decision (Consensus: 25 bp cut)

• 11:30 pm: Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan)

• 11:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Jan)