Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as results send CSL, PME and BHP surging, but fail to outweigh sagging banks and retail

The ASX 200 eked out its fifth-straight loss — on a session of double-digit gains in CSL and Pro Medicus, and a strong performance from BHP. Almost everything else gave ground, with resources, financials, and consumer stocks all retreating.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 3.2 points lower at 9,070, 0.40% from its session high and 0.17% from its low. Despite the benchmark index spending most of the session in the green, the performance of the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) was far more telling: advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 97 to 183.

To say Health Care (XHJ) (+7.8%) was good today is the understatement of the year! Today was the sector's fourth-best day on record and its strongest since the COVID market crisis of March 2020. It was driven by the rare alignment of three of its largest constituents all delivering standout results simultaneously.

CSL (CSL) (+17.3%) was the headline — the blood plasma giant reported a near $3.7 billion annual loss but guided for a return to earnings growth in FY27, and markets responded with relief and enthusiasm. Pro Medicus (PME) (+11.9%) reported a 22.9% jump in full-year revenue to $261.7 million and a 130.3% jump in net profit to $265.3 million — a genuine result rather than a managed consensus beat. Cochlear (COH) (+7.6%) reported full-year underlying net profit at the top end of guidance. Three major results, all positive, all on the same day. It happens perhaps once a decade.

S&P-ASX 200 Health Care Sector Index chart

Energy (XEJ) (+1.0%) caught the tailwind from ICE Brent crude futures rising 2.7% overnight before adding a further 0.9% to US$91.66/bbl in Asian trade — back above the psychological US$90 as a long-lasting solution in the Middle East remains elusive. Beach Energy (BPT) (+3.4%) and Karoon Energy (KAR) (+2.6%) led the oil and gas names, with Viva Energy (VEA) (+1.8%), Ampol (ALD) (+1.1%), Woodside Energy (WDS) (+0.9%), and Santos (STO) (+0.7%) all firmer.

Materials (XMJ) (+0.2%) finished fractionally positive but only because BHP (BHP) (+2.7%) — which announced its biggest dividend in four years on the back of booming copper prices — provided enough index weight to overcome broad-based weakness elsewhere in the sector.

The London Metals Exchange copper price surged 2.1% to a new record high on Monday, yet COMEX copper futures eased 0.5% to US$6.583/lb in Asian trade, and most copper-exposed ASX names actually fell — Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-2.0%), Capstone Copper (CSC) (-2.2%), and South32 (S32) (-2.0%) all declined.

Elsewhere, Sims (SGM) (-11.0%) fell despite net profit tripling to $289.1 million and Macmahon Holdings (MAH) (-8.6%) declined despite reporting its tenth consecutive year of meeting or exceeding guidance — both results suggesting the market had expected more.

S&P-ASX 200 Materials Sector Index chart

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-1.6%) pulled back as COMEX gold futures dipped 0.5% to US$4,453/oz and COMEX silver futures declined 1.3% to US$65.40/oz. The higher oil price, and the sharply higher yields of benchmark global bonds that accompanied, likely a drag. Pantoro Gold (PNR) (-3.2%), Northern Star Resources (NST) (-3.1%), Capricorn Metals (CMM) (-2.7%), and Catalyst Metals (CYL) (-2.3%) were all lower.

Financials (XFJ) (-1.1%) suffered their seventh decline in eight sessions — a run that has seen the sector give up much of its early-August gains. The healthcare sector's gravitational pull drew capital away, but the sector also had its own headwinds.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) (-5.3%) fell after APRA imposed licence conditions following a finding of "longstanding and pervasive weaknesses" in its risk management framework. HUB24 (HUB) (-7.3%) fell despite reporting a 42% jump in net profit to $120.2 million that beat analyst expectations — a continuation of the unsatisfying pattern where good results have been met with selling in the current environment.

Against the negative results tide, Judo Capital (JDO) (+16.9%) surged after reporting a 29% jump in full-year net profit to $111.1 million with net interest margin expanding 20 basis points to 3.13%. Elsewhere, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-1.4%), Westpac (WBC) (-1.2%), and Macquarie Group (MQG) (-2.0%) all retreated.

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index chart

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.0%) and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-1.2%) both extended the consumer confidence collapse that JB Hi-Fi's result crystallised yesterday. The assessment that discretionary retail is "in a world of pain" echoed throughout the session. Breville Group (BRG) (-3.0%), Premier Investments (PMV) (-2.4%), and Temple & Webster (TPW) (-1.8%) continued lower within Discretionary. Endeavour Group (EDV) (-2.6%), Woolworths (WOW) (-1.8%), and Coles (COL) (-1.2%) were the Staples fallers.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.0%) split sharply. WiseTech Global (WTC) (+2.6%) and Xero (XRO) (+0.8%) both advanced, their recoveries continuing. But Iress (IRE) (-8.4%), Life360 (360) (-8.2%) — still unwinding from last week's poorly received quarterly — and Megaport (MP1) (-2.8%) all fell, with hot money that had been returning to beaten-down SaaS names redirected by healthcare's historic session.

In other commodities moves, Lithium stocks ran out of steam despite GFEX lithium carbonate futures gaining 1.2% to CNY 155,400/t. Liontown Resources (LTR) (-7.3%), Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) (-6.4%), Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-5.5%), Wildcat Resources (WC8) (-4.7%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-3.8%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-3.1%) were all lower.

Analysis

If you’re new to ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap, you’re likely wondering what amazing insights you might find by reading this section. 🧐

Today, all I can say is: Not much to update here.

But if you're new (or even if your one of my long-suffering ChartWatch readers!) it’s worth recapping how my technical analysis model works:

1. It’s purely technical, I could not possibly care less about fundamentals including valuations, the economy, what war Trump just declared on who… or anything else that doesn’t constitute: Demand, Supply, or Price.

2. It starts with the TRENDS:

   1. Short term trend (ST) is measured by the faster moving of the trend ribbons in the chart above… it’s a traffic light system… so green is good, amber is watch out, and pink is good if you’re short!

   2. Long term trend (LT) is measured by the slower moving of the trend ribbons, ditto on its signalling.

   3. For both ST and LT trend ribbons, you will see that they tend to support the price on the way up and resist the price on the way down — or more accurately: act as zones of dynamic demand in an uptrend and as zones of dynamic supply in downtrends. This means it's usually quite important when the price breaks through the ribbons! ⚠️

3. Then it moves to PRICE ACTION:

   1. This is the relevant position of peaks and troughs, or as I like to call them: Points of supply and Points of demand.

   2. Rising peaks and troughs signals demand side control, as the market looks to BTD causing rising troughs (acronym definitions below!). An environment of FOMO and HOFU also ensures that old peaks are eclipsed.

   3. Falling peaks and falling troughs signals supply side control, as the market looks to STR causing falling peaks. An environment of NUTE and FOHO also ensures that old troughs are breached.

4. Then it moves to CANDLES:

   1. Who is in control each trading session?

   2. White-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows are the fingerprints of demand side control (again signalling BTD, FOMO and HOFU!)

   3. Black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows are the fingerprints of supply side control (again signalling STR, NUTE and FOHO!).

5. All of this is supported by VOLATILITY and VOLUME which have their own indicators to help explain the significance of the motivation and engagement of the demand and supply sides.

That’s in a nutshell. No convoluted technical indicators like RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, or OBV (all useless!), or predictive models like Elliott Wave, Gann, Fibonacci, or Pivot Points (ditto useless!) — just good old D vs S = P.

When D > S = P ⬆️ on a MOTN basis: Add or retain risk.

When not D > S = P ⬆️ on a MOTN basis: Reduce risk or abstain.

It’s that simple. In my experience, it works MOTN. 💪

Monday’s candle suggests the supply side is nagging away against what is otherwise an environment of robust demand side control. We are not surprised that they're doing so — as we identified several weeks ago that 26789-27191 would likely act as a significant zone of excess supply.

The fact that it is — equals pure coincidence, though. I cannot take any credit for an outcome that is purely coincidence, for the future is unknown, rendering prediction futile! 🔮

And, given that prediction is futile, the only course of action I have is to make my best guess based on the evidence I have. And that guess hasn’t changed after the last candle… So, no change to my present RP (that bit stands for ‘risk position’!)

View

I am 2/3RP on US stocks. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

27191 is the key point of supply vs the short term trend ribbon (presently 26035-26177) is the key zone of demand.

Analysis

No glorious rebound from the short term trend ribbon! What does that tell you? 🤔

Down, down, down, down… and… thud.

I don’t like it. 🦨

There really should be some latent demand here… after all, it’s the old 8984-9022 supply zone (old supply zones, once consumed, MOTN tend to act as future demand zones in strong uptrends), and we’re at the short term uptrend ribbon.

Well, for starters, ‘should’ is just a dumb thing to say… because who cares what I think!

But the fact that there’s no evidence of any latent demand of any significant motivation or size around here yet — is rather annoying!

Can I offer: it’s more annoying than disturbing at this point.

At what point does that ‘annoyance’ transform into ‘disturbance’? 🤷

Very likely after one more supply side candle! ⚠️

View

I am FRP on Aussie stocks — waiting for the verdict at the short term trend ribbon before retreating, tail between my legs back to 2/3RP. (My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in ASX stocks is now 100%).

Key Levels

9297 is the key point of supply to contend with, while demand the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8998-9068).

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

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GOLD! The Gold price is rising again: Massive ASX Gold sector review 🏅

TODAY

• 10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment

  • Result:

    • +6% to 88.9 (consider that readings below 100 indicate pessimism vs above indicate optimism).

    • Those with mortgages saw the biggest reduction in pessimism, likely due to the RBA's hold at that August meeting – yet

    • The "Economy, next 12 months" sub-index rose 5.8% to 82.8 – again, still substantially pessimistic!

    • The "Unemployment Expectations" index increased to 135.7 from 129.9, demonstrating a great belief among consumers that unemployment will increase over the year ahead.

LATER THIS WEEK

Tuesday

• 10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment

• 22:30 USA July Building Permits & Housing Starts

• 23:15 USA July Industrial Production

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS Wage Price Index

Thursday

• 04:00 USA August FOMC Meeting Minutes

• 11:30 AUS July Employment Data

• 22:30 USA Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday

• 00:00 USA Conference Board Leading Index

• 09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

• 23:45 USA Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)