Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes week with gain, tech stocks cheer Nvidia surge, results power discretionary

The S&P/ASX200 finished the week on a firm note, adding a modest but important 32 points. Today's gain, and the weekly gain of 14 points, are important because investors have likely grown a little weary given recent trepidation around historical all time highs.

Any gain here justifies current market pricing and emboldens investors to take the next step...hopefully to push stocks to fresh new highs...

Let’s dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 32.4 points higher at 7,643.6, 0.43% from its session high and just 0.23% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 146 to 129. For the week, the XJO finished up 14.7 points or 0.19% higher.

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.52%) sector was the best performing sector today, likely in response to another massive pop in Nvidia (NVDA) shares on Thursday in New York. Nvidia reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings, and it appears the love has washed off on local tech plays.

Nvidia's rally is just breathtaking...the perfect picture of excess demand!

Strong performances in the ASX tech sector today

Also doing well today was the Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.5%) sector. It was an interesting day as stocks like Jumbo Interactive (JIN) (+9.0%) and Lovisa Holdings (LOV) (+6.9%) enjoyed earnings-related gains, but stocks which were belted yesterday on earnings like Corporate Travel Management (CTD) (+3.0%) and Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) (+6.9%) rebounded.

Winners on good results, and winners on rebounding from poor results!

ChartWatch

Brainchip Holdings (BRN)

A few have been wracking their brain-chips about BRN's recent move!

Today's ChartWatch is brought to you by my Twitter (X) followers! Here are the most interesting and timely requests, starting with a stock I've been watching with great interest over the last couple of weeks.

Brainchip has been on a rocket ride with little in the form of company announcements to explain the move. As I've noted in the Interesting Moves section, it does kick off a major investor roadshow next week.

The run has bashed up against some substantial historical resistance in the form of 0.52. You can clearly see the impact of this level on the demand-supply environment in today's candle, more specifically, the long upward pointing shadow. Upward pointing shadows are the fingerprints of excess supply.

Otherwise, the short term uptrend (light green ribbon) is well-established and the long term trend appears to be transitioning from neutral to up. Support now moves to the last peak at 0.39.

Investors should be on the lookout for further supply-side showings around 0.52, for example black candles or upward pointing shadows. Otherwise, white candles and downward pointing shadows would indicate the demand-side remains very much in control, and in this case 0.61 is the next likely overhead resistance point.

Mineral Resources (MIN)

MIN keeps hanging in there...

Not the prettiest of charts, but I have to give Mineral Resources some credit - it has hung on far better than I expected given it was on the verge of total meltdown just one month ago.

The rally since the 52.52 major trough is encouraging for the bulls, with higher troughs and higher peaks. I'm also observing frequent white candles - which are the fingerprints of excess demand.

The close above 61.10 indicates demand is gaining increasing control, but I cannot be confident the prevailing long term downtrend has been neutralised until a close above the long term downtrend ribbon, likely around $65.70.

Alternatively, a close below 57.65 would signal the supply side is back in control, and the bulls don't even want me to mention what the outlook would be on a close below 52.52!

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

The demand-side love Lovisa

A very different chart to the first two, and exactly the chart I love the most. Bottom left, top right! I know for many this is the hardest chart to buy because of the following beliefs:

1. It has gone up too much, surely it's too expensive!

2. If I buy now I guarantee it will be the top...forever!

Let me remind you charts don't look like Lovisa's for no good reason. They look like this because those who own cash are throwing that cash at those who own stock. Those who own stock don't want to part with their shares unless they're compensated by substantially higher prices.

Cash wants in because they believe the stock is still cheap - even after its massive gain.

Shareholders are reluctant to sell because they believe the stock is still cheap - even after its massive gain.

I guess that just leaves you thinking it's too expensive!

I'm happy here as long as we continue to see the signs of excess demand: rising trend ribbons, higher peaks and higher troughs, and white candles and or downward pointing shadows. How high it can go is anyone's guess...and I don't do guesses!

Economy

Today

• No major economic announcements today, and a quiet night tonight! 💤

Latest News

Don't miss an ASX announcement this reporting season, check out our comprehensive H1 FY24 Earnings Season Calendar and set up and receive announcements direct to your inbox on Market Index: Create Alert Now

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +18.6% Aussie Broadband (ABB) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +16.5% Block (SQ2) - Annual Report for year ended December 31, 2023

• +14.0% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) - Incredibly, still no news! Suggest just the momentum in this move...🤔

• +9.2% Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• +9.0% Jumbo Interactive (JIN) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +7.9% RPMGlobal Holdings (RUL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +7.7% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No new, still think the BRN rally is rubbing off here…🤔

• +7.5% Bega Cheese (BGA) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, 1 x rating upgrade and 4 x price target upgrades by the brokers (see Broker Moves), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.9% Tabcorp Holdings (TAH) - Bounce after yesterday's sharp sell off following Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• +6.9% Lovisa Holdings (LOV) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, 1 x rating upgrade and 6 x price target upgrades by the brokers (see Broker Moves), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.2% Power Holdings (PWH) - Continued positive response to Wednesday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.1% Superloop (SLC) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, retained at "Overweight" at Morgan Stanley (see Broker Moves), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.7% Pexa Group (PXA) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• +5.6% MMA Offshore (MRM) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +5.1% Domain Holdings Australia (DHG) - No news, timely bounce given prevailing short and long term downtrends! 🤔

• +4.7% EVT (EVT) - No news, timely bounce given prevailing short and long term downtrends! 🤔

• +4.6% EQT Holdings (EQT) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, 1 x price target upgrades by the brokers (see Broker Moves), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +4.5% Imugene (IMU) - No news, attempting to transition into long term uptrend.

• +4.2% Mount Gibson Iron (MGX) - Bounce after yesterday's sharp sell off following Wednesday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• +4.1% Integral Diagnostics (IDX) - Continued positive response to Tuesday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• +3.9% Pro Medicus (PME) - No news, but bouncing strongly from long term uptrend ribbon after post-results sell off last week

• +3.4% Cooper Energy (COE) - No news 🤔 Possible positioning ahead of H1 FYT24 results on Tues 27 Feb

Trading lower

• -12.6% Austal (ASB) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• -12.1% Lifestyle Communities (LIC) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts and accompanying Equity Raising Presentation

• -9.5% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, looks like failing at the dynamic resistance of the long term downtrend ribbon

• -9.5% Develop Global (DVP) - No news, failed at dynamic resistance of the short term downtrend ribbon, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -9.1% Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL) - Piedmont Lithium Reports Q4 & Full Year 2023 Results, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -8.7% Sayona Mining (SYA) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Corporate Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -8.1% Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Q4 & Full Year 2023 Results, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

• -6.6% Syrah Resources (SYR) - Short covering rally in small lithium, battery metals & battery tech waning…long term trends potentially reasserting themselves 🤔

• -5.5% Accent Group (AX1) - Half Yearly Report and Accounts

• -5.4% Alpha HPA (A4N) - No news, struggling to stay above long term uptrend ribbon 🤔

• -5.3% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, uranium sector continues correction 📉

• -5.3% IPD Group (IPG) - No news, possible positioning ahead of Half Yearly Report and Accounts on Monday 26 Feb

• -4.8% Iluka Resources (ILU) - Pullback after initial positive response to Wednesday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, failed at the dynamic resistance of the long term downtrend ribbon

• -4.7% Regis Resources (RRL) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Half Yearly Report and Accounts, closed below long tem trend ribbon

• -4.7% Lotus Resources (LOT) - $30 million Placement for Uranium Restart & Development, uranium sector continues correction 📉

• -4.5% Novonix (NVX) - Short covering rally in small lithium, battery metals & battery tech waning…long term trends potentially reasserting themselves 🤔

• -4.5% Core Lithium (CXO) - Short covering rally in small lithium, battery metals & battery tech waning…long term trends potentially reasserting themselves 🤔

• -4.5% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, uranium sector continues correction 📉

Broker Notes

• AIC Mines (A1M) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.70

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $44.80

• APA Group (APA)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.12 from $9.98

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.80 from $8.94

• Eagers Automotive (APE)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.20 from $15.65

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.20

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.50 from $16.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.00 from $14.60

• Autosports Group (ASG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.10

• Accent Group (AX1) retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.85

• Bega Cheese (BGA)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.40 from $3.50

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.00

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.10

  • Retained at underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.25

  • Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $4.30

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.35 from $3.48

• BHP Group (BHP) retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $44.00

• Beach Energy (BPT) retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.79

• Brambles (BXB) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $16.55

• Charter Hall Group (CHC) retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.25 from $15.95

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $17.16 from $18.19

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.90 from $20.40

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $16.00 from $22.00

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $39.70 from $38.30

• Elanor Commercial Property Fund (ECF) retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.75

• EQT Holdings (EQT) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $36.00 from $35.00

• Experience Co (EXP) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.34 from $0.32

• Fineos Corporation Holdings (FCL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.22 from $2.47

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.00 from $23.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $24.10 from $24.60

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.80

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50

• Galan Lithium (GLN) initiated buy at Clarksons Platou; Price Target: $0.57

• Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.70

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.63

• Healius (HLS) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00

• HMC Capital (HMC) downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $7.25 from $5.62

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.15

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.05

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.15

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.00 from $8.85

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.80

  • Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.25

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.60 from $9.20

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.60 from $8.30

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at BofA; Price Target: $6.85 from $7.00

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.75

  • Downgraded to outperform from buy at CLSA; Price Target: $7.60 from $9.05

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.50 from $9.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.60 from $10.60

• Iress (IRE)

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $8.80

  • Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $10.80 from $11.40

  • Retained at hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $8.30 from $7.70

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.64

• Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.55 from $25.25

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.90 from $18.70

• Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $31.65 from $22.70

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $27.50 from $24.00

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $28.69 from $23.79

  • Retained at sell at CLSA; Price Target: $20.15 from $18.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.50 from $24.50

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $24.00 from $21.00

• Magnetic Resources (MAU) initiated speculative buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $1.82

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $48.00 from $51.00

  • Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $62.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.80

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.70

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.30

  • Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.84 from $3.66

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.73 from $3.76

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.30

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.10

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.50

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.65

• Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.30

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.04 from $2.18

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.80

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.59 from $1.99

• Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.62

• National Storage REIT (NSR) downgraded to hold from buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $2.38 from $2.41

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $13.30

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $13.10 from $11.95

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $13.90

  • Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.00

• Objective Corporation (OCL) retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.50

• Orica (ORI) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.00

• Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) downgraded to hold from buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $5.64 from $5.40

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.60

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.95

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.65

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.50

• PSC Insurance Group (PSI) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.60

• PWR Holdings (PWH) downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $10.82

• Pexa Group (PXA) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.00

• Qualitas (QAL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.89 from $3.08

• Qantas Airways (QAN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.75 from $6.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.05 from $8.25

  • Retained at buy at ; Price Target: $7.55 from $7.70

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00 from $7.00

• Qube Holdings (QUB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.80

  • Downgraded to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.40

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.65

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.32 from $4.21

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.70

  • Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.40

  • Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.59 from $3.34

• Red 5 (RED) retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.38 from $0.37

• Rio Tinto (RIO) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $144.50

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.71 from $1.74

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.50

• Seek (SEK) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $31.00 from $28.50

• Superloop (SLC) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.90

• Service Stream (SSM)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.15

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.21 from $1.09

• SSR Mining (SSR) retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.40 from $20.20

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $17.80

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $15.40 from $14.50

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $17.50

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $16.10 from $15.50

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $13.75 from $12.60

  • Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.50

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.20

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.15

• Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.90

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.05

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.90 from $1.20

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.00

• The Reject Shop (TRS)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.75 from $6.40

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.80 from $6.20

• Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.30 from $3.93

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.00

• Viva Energy Group (VEA) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50

Scans