Evening Wrap: ASX 200 baulks at record, tech sector best as retail sales disappoint

As the great Maxwell Smart used to say: Missed it by that much 🤏

7630.5.

That was the high of today's trading range. Just 2.3 points shy of the S&P/ASX 200's record close high of 7,632.8 set all the way back on 13 August 2021.

We still closed up just over 20 points, and logged an impressive seven gains in a row. But one has to wonder why we couldn't bottle it today...Buyer fatigue? Lousy retail sales data? Perhaps it's just not meant to be!

The answer is just a click or a scroll away...Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

So close...but oh so far away!

The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 21.8 points higher at 7,600.2, 0.29% from its session low and 0.40% from its high. It closed just 0.43% from its record high of 7632.8 set on 13 August 2021. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 172 to 106.

See that top in the intraday chart? 11:30am right? The exact time of the release of today's worse than expected retail sales data. Much of the recent strength in Australian equities can be attributed to hopes of a resilient Aussie consumer, hanging in there until they get a few rate cuts later this year.

Today's data poured a little cold water on the strength of those hopes as retail sales fell 2.7% in December, substantially worse than the 1.9% decline economists were expecting. The crux of the problem, according to the ABS, was a big pullback in discretionary spending.

December is a crucial month for Aussie retailers, and potentially the data is a harbinger of a consumer increasingly hampered by cost of living pressures. Either that, or we're just spending more in the Black Friday sales in November. Let's hope it's the simpler explanation! But, looking at the price action, it does appear the market was spooked at least a little by the data.

S&P/ASX 200 TECHNICALS

Yes, today was a miss, but look how far we've come

Upward pointing shadows, like the one we saw on today's candle, are a reliable indicator of intraday resistance at a particular level. If that intraday resistance coincides with historical peaks, then it's likely more substantial than just intraday.

And that's exactly the case for the ASX 200. Today's high matches a level we've been unable to better in the last 4 attempts over more than 2 years. The most recent attempt was late in December where the index topped out just 0.1 points below the record high.

It's natural to experience excess supply around historical peaks, and it's common practice for an index or stock to work through this supply with multiple attempts. Each time, each attempt removes a little more supply, and then a little more, until the environment is suddenly all demand and little-to-no supply. This is when techincal breakouts occur.

I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't say we're guaranteed to do the business this time, but I can say the trends, price action, and particularly candles (save today's!) are very constructive for a breakout sooner rather than later.

SECTOR CHARTWATCH

The XTX closed at its best level in over 2 years today

Today's best performing sector was the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Sector (XIJ) +1.9%. It's less well known counterpart, the S&P ASX All Technology Sector (XTX) deserves a special mention with respect to its technicals today.

The XTX is a broader measure of the health of the Australian technology sector, containing 38 of the largest ASX-listed technology shares compared to the XIJ's 10. I note the XTX closed at its best level in over 2 years today, and judging by the well-established short and long term uptrends, solid price action, and predominantly demand-side candles, it is a picture of excess demand.

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The best performing technology shares today

Economy

• AU Retail sales for December, actual -2.7% vs consensus -1.9% vs November +2.0%

What to watch out for...

Later this week:

• Wed:

  • 02:00 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence for January, consensus 113.9 vs December 110.7;

  • 02:00 JOLTS Job openings for December, consensus 8.73 million vs November 8.79 million

  • 11:30 AU Consumer Price Index December Quarter, consensus +0.8% & 3.7% p.a. vs September +1.2% & 4.3% p.a.

  • 12:30 China Manufacturing PMI for January, consensus 49.2 vs December 49.0 & Non-manufacturing PMI, consensus 50.6 vs December 50.4

• Thu: 06:00 US FOMC Cash Rate, statement, press conference, consensus no change 5.25%-5.50%

• Fri: 02:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI for January, consensus 47.0 vs December 47.4

• Sat: 00:30 US Non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rate for January, consensus +177,000, +0.3%, 3.8% vs December +216,000, +0.4%, 3.7%

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +27.6% Megaport (MP1) - Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report

• +20.8% Nickel Industries (NIC) - New Capital Management Framework including Share Buyback

• +10.0% Gold Road Resources (GOR) - 2 broker upgrades following 29 Jan Quarterly Activities Report - December 2023

• +9.4% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS

• +7.3% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news 🤔 has been severely sold down over last 4 weeks

• +6.8% Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend may be turning up

• +6.6% Block Inc. (SQ2) - No news, bouncing off long term uptrend ribbon

• +6.4% Kogan.Com (KGN) - UBS & JP Morgan have both become substantial shareholders in last few days

• +6.2% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - General uranium sector strength following positive broker comments on sector yesterday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

• +6.0% Lotus Resources (LOT) - General uranium sector strength following positive broker comments on sector yesterday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends

Trading lower

• -5.3% Mader Group (MAD) - Q2 FY24 Quarterly Operational Update

• -4.4% Netwealth Group (NWL) - 2 broker downgrades following 29 Jan December 2023 Quarterly Business Update

• -4.1% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - Quarterly Activities Report & Cashflow

• -3.4% Strike Energy (STX) - Continued fallout from 29 Jan 2Q FY24 Quarterly Report & Appendix 5B

• -3.4% BCI Minerals (BCI) - Continued fallout from 29 Jan Quarterly Activities Report

• -3.1% Opthea (OPT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends

Broker Notes

• Altium (ALU) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $50.00 from $47.00

• Arena Reit/Units (ARF) retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.85

• Bapcor (BAP)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.08 from $6.40

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.10 from $7.20

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.30

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.95

• Bellevue Gold (BGL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.90 from $2.10

• Beach Energy (BPT) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.90

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $32.00 from $29.00

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.30 from $29.65

• Chalice Mining (CHN) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.45 from $3.00

• Coles Group (COL) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.20

• Calix (CXL) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.10 from $7.25

• DGL Group (DGL) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.00

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.55 from $3.50

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.30 from $37.50

• Develop Global (DVP) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.30

• Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.74

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.95 from $2.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.60 from $2.00

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.10

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.65

• IGO (IGO)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.90

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.50

  • Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.85

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.90 from $10.00

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.25

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.51

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.41

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.60

• Lovisa Holdings (LOV) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.50

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) downgraded to marketperform from outperform at TD Cowen; Price Target: $6.50 from $9.00

• Mineral Resources (MIN) retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $51.00 from $53.00

• Megaport (MP1) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $12.90 from $11.90

• Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.30

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.10

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.50

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.80 from $14.20

  • Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $16.50 from $14.70

• News Corporation (NWS) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $42.80 from $38.50

• Nextdc (NXT) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.60 from $15.80

• OFX Group (OHM) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.59 from $1.47

• Origin Energy (ORG) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.26

• Pepper Money (PPM)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.45 from $1.57

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.45

• Perpetual (PPT) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $26.30 from $27.55

• Pexa Group (PXA) initiated at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $12.80

• REA Group (REA) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $204.00 from $179.00

• Resimac Group (RMC) upgraded to neutral from underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.00

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $31.80

• Siteminder (SDR) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.15 from $4.60

• Seek (SEK) retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $24.90 from $23.00

• Spark New Zealand (SPK) retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.90

• Santos (STO) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.15 from $8.90

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.58

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.48

• Suncorp Group (SUN) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.20

• Seven West Media (SWM) retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.30

• Telstra Group (TLS) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.65 from $4.70

• TPG Telecom (TPG) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.70

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.00 from $43.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $40.50 from $42.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.50

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $42.30 from $43.30

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.00

• Wisetech Global (WTC) retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $80.00 from $75.00

• Xero (XRO) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $141.00

Scans