In this ChartWatch series I present scan lists based on my trend following technical analysis methodology. The goal is to alert you to the best uptrends and downtrends in the Australian share market.
Short term uptrend (ST trend ribbon is light green)
Long term uptrend or long term trend is transitioning from down to up (LT trend ribbon is dark green, or LT trend ribbon is amber and contracting)
Demand-side price action (rising peaks and rising troughs is preferred, but based upon weight of evidence of other criteria rising peaks only or rising troughs only may be permitted)
Predominance of demand-side candles (i.e., white bodies and or downward pointing shadows)
The last candle in particular is a strong demand-side candle
Short term downtrend (ST trend ribbon is light pink)
Long term downtrend or long term trend is transitioning from up to down (LT trend ribbon is dark pink, or LT trend ribbon is amber and contracting)
Supply-side price action (falling peaks and falling troughs is preferred, but based upon weight of evidence of other criteria falling peaks only or falling troughs only may be permitted)
Predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., black bodies and or upward pointing shadows)
The last candle in particular is a strong supply-side candle
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
---|---|---|---|---|
The A2 Milk Company | A2M | $7.03 | +20.4% | +30.4% |
AGL Energy | AGL | $10.48 | +11.6% | +18.0% |
BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF | ATEC | $24.17 | +3.5% | +32.5% |
Botanix Pharmaceuticals | BOT | $0.290 | +34.9% | +229.5% |
Cyprium Metals | CYM | $0.041 | +36.7% | -24.7% |
BetaShares Global Sustainability Leaders ETF | ETHI | $14.85 | +3.8% | +21.9% |
Global X Fang+ ETF | FANG | $26.25 | +11.0% | +57.3% |
Goodman Group | GMG | $34.17 | +10.8% | +69.8% |
Gentrack Group | GTK | $8.99 | +20.0% | +180.9% |
BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF | HACK | $11.63 | +2.8% | +34.3% |
Hub24 | HUB | $42.64 | +5.9% | +64.0% |
iShares Global 100 ETF | IOO | $139.71 | +5.4% | +26.2% |
iShares S&P 500 ETF | IVV | $53.76 | +4.0% | +27.4% |
Loftus Peak Global Disruption Fund ETF | LPGD | $4.61 | +8.7% | +57.3% |
Munro Climate Change Leaders Fund ETF | MCCL | $14.75 | +12.1% | +56.9% |
Medadvisor | MDR | $0.390 | +34.5% | +81.4% |
Vaneck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF | MOAT | $128.36 | +2.8% | +12.1% |
Mesoblast | MSB | $1.180 | +31.1% | +8.7% |
News Corporation | NWS | $41.59 | +5.8% | +48.5% |
Nextdc | NXT | $17.98 | +10.1% | +55.0% |
OFX Group | OFX | $1.985 | +27.7% | +28.9% |
Origin Energy | ORG | $10.35 | +5.2% | +25.0% |
Orica | ORI | $18.69 | +1.9% | +19.4% |
Paragon Care | PGC | $0.375 | +10.3% | +50.0% |
Platinum Capital | PMC | $1.423 | +7.8% | +12.9% |
Perenti | PRN | $1.015 | +10.3% | -13.6% |
QBE Insurance Group | QBE | $18.05 | +2.6% | +22.5% |
Qube Holdings | QUB | $3.66 | +8.9% | +18.4% |
Redox | RDX | $3.23 | +7.7% | 0% |
Regal Asian Investments | RG8 | $2.10 | +8.0% | +4.0% |
South32 | S32 | $3.85 | +16.0% | -4.5% |
Global X Semiconductor ETF | SEMI | $17.71 | +15.0% | +70.1% |
Superloop | SLC | $1.405 | +7.7% | +117.8% |
Spartan Resources | SPR | $0.720 | +19.0% | +503.9% |
SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF | SPY | $805.00 | +4.0% | +27.8% |
Sovereign Metals | SVM | $0.545 | +4.8% | +26.7% |
Southern Cross Electrical Engineering | SXE | $1.660 | +39.5% | +147.8% |
Global X Morningstar Global Technology ETF | TECH | $105.45 | +4.0% | +20.3% |
Treasury Wine Estates | TWE | $12.04 | +0.4% | -7.3% |
Vanguard Ethically Conscious International Shares Index ETF | VESG | $88.74 | +4.0% | +23.2% |
VGI Partners Global Investments | VG1 | $1.890 | +3.3% | +15.2% |
Vulcan Energy Resources | VUL | $5.54 | +82.8% | +31.9% |
Xero | XRO | $134.84 | +10.9% | +23.1% |
A picture of excess demand, and 100% deserves to be in this list, but something I didn't discuss in Ed 1 of ChartWatch ASX Scans was the concept of watching the price action very closely at major points of supply.
A2M has arrived at the major highs from Jan-Feb last year. Remember, an old point of supply is only a potential supply point in the future. The candles will tell us if supply is indeed manifesting there. Remember: Supply manifests itself in the candles as black bodies and or downward pointing shadows.
So, given the all white-candle affair in the supply zone so far for a2M, all appears fine and good. But, it's worth continuing to watching the price action closely from here.
This is an interesting (early stage) uptrend continuation setup. The long term downtrend ribbon has neutralised, and there is a heathy battle between demand and supply within the now-neutral ribbon.
Thursday's candle sets a higher trough, and the long white body on some decent volume signals the demand-side is grappling for control in line with the well established short term uptrend. That short term uptrend appears to be offering dynamic demand.
A close above the top of the long term trend ribbon at $0.045 would signal the commencement of a new long term uptrend.
Similar to yesterday, I thought I'd show an early stage uptrend turnaround setup, and then one that is more progressed. The demand side showing since the OCF price closed above its long term trend ribbon on 20 May is impressive – particularly the gap and run on 21 May.
Gaps and runs of this nature are symptomatic of very strong excess demand. Importantly, there’s been very little downside volatility since then. The supply-side appears content to hang on for more here and Thursday’s white candle suggests the appetite of the demand-side remains intact.
The volume surge suggests a massive increase in interest here, as well as some much needed supply removal.
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
---|---|---|---|---|
Aussie Broadband | ABB | $3.50 | -2.0% | +17.1% |
Australian Clinical Labs | ACL | $2.21 | -9.4% | -36.3% |
Adairs | ADH | $1.780 | -17.6% | -20.5% |
Bank of Queensland | BOQ | $5.85 | -5.5% | +4.5% |
De Grey Mining | DEG | $1.105 | -16.9% | -22.4% |
Flight Centre Travel Group | FLT | $20.00 | -4.7% | -6.0% |
Lendlease Group | LLC | $5.93 | -8.9% | -24.7% |
National Storage Reit | NSR | $2.18 | -1.8% | -14.5% |
Region Group | RGN | $2.14 | -3.2% | -13.4% |
Terracom | TER | $0.225 | -6.3% | -63.7% |
This is an interesting downtrend continuation setup. It's a picture of excess supply, of selling into rallies, and of panic on downward pushes. The $2.26 point of demand set on 28 Feb appears to be dealt with by Wednesday's long black candle. Yesterday, there was little response from the demand side and resolute opposition from the supply side.
These next three charts are interesting potential downtrend turnaround setups. First up, ABB which appears to have decisively closed below its long term trend ribbon with yesterday's supply-side candle.
The next interesting downtrend turnaround setup is ADH. It's short term downtrend is particularly well-established, and it's also providing reliable dynamic supply. Price action and candles are consistent with strong supply-side control.
I also note the tell-tale close below the long term trend ribbon, then rally back up, test, and fail. Effectively the price rebounded lower after touching the ribbon – evidence of dynamic supply.
I suggest this is quite an early stage downtrend continuation setup. FLT has had a few goes as closing below it's long term trend ribbon. Thursday's attempt may or may not be the decisive one!
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