The 10 most shorted ASX stocks plus the biggest risers and fallers – Week 8

Welcome back to the Short Seller Series – A recap of the most heavily shorted stocks on the ASX and those experiencing significant changes to short interest over the past week.

Short selling data is four days behind today's date because reporting is not mandatory until three business days after the trade. The tables below will compare:

• Week-on-week changes between 3 and 10 February 2025

• Month-on-month changes between 13 January and 10 February 2025

Most Shorted

Key takeaways

• Boss Energy and Paladin Energy:Despite a slight decline in short interest, both stocks remain the most shorted on the market.

• Syrah Resources: Short interest has pulled back significantly, reaching its lowest level since July 2024. However, UBS analysts warn that Syrah faces major challenges at both a company and industry level. Its primary asset, the Balama Graphite Mine in Mozambique, remains under Force Majeure due to civil unrest, triggering default events with creditors. UBS also noted that while graphite prices may have bottomed, there are no near-term catalysts for a recovery due to ongoing oversupply from Chinese synthetic capacity. In a 14 February note, UBS downgraded Syrah to Neutral (from Buy) and slashed its target price to 30 cents (from 80 cents).

• Domino's Pizza: Short sellers were caught off guard on 7 February after the company announced plans to close 172 underperforming stores in Japan, alongside $18.6 million in cost savings from a group-wide review. The stock surged 21.3% that session. Despite the sharp rally, short interest remains elevated and is still well above the 4.6% level recorded a year ago.

• Pilbara Minerals: Short interest has dropped to its lowest level since 27 November 2024. However, the decline is not being driven by a rising share price, as Pilbara continues to hover near recent lows of $2.20.

Rising Shorts

Key takeaways

• Sigma Healthcare: The company completed its merger with Chemist Warehouse on 12 February, with the combined entity comprising 85.75% CW shareholders and 14.25% Sigma shareholders. Citi analysts see limited upside at current valuations (Neutral, $2.90 target price). Sigma trades at an FY26 EV/EBIT of 33.6x — well above Wesfarmers at 19.5x — though its three-year EBIT growth CAGR of ~24% compares favorably to Wesfarmers' ~6%. However, Citi noted that more conviction in the long-term earnings growth story, particularly international expansion potential, is needed before taking a more constructive view.

• Mcmillan Shakespeare: Shares in the fleet management and employee benefits company fell 10.5% on 7 February after Bell Potter downgraded the stock to Hold (from Buy) and cut its target price to $15.80 (from $21). The firm cited risks around order growth due to rising competition in the private segment, where sales have hit a low, alongside static EV penetration. Analysts also noted the company is cycling tough comparables from last year, with fading support from carryover revenue.

Most covered

Key takeaways

There has been significant short covering activity across stocks reporting results, as well as in commodity-related stocks and shares experiencing weakness.

• The Star: The embattled casino operator faces multiple risks that could put short sellers at risk, including the possibility of voluntary administration and a positive debt refinancing proposal or further asset sales.

• AGL: Short interest eased ahead of the company’s half-year FY25 results. AGL delivered a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result on 12 February, driven by solid electricity trading and origination earnings despite ongoing coal plant downtime. However, management took a cautious approach, only slightly narrowing FY25 guidance, citing uncertainty in the second half. Analysts viewed this as prudent, noting that while power prices remain supportive, competitive pressures in retail energy and rising costs could impact future earnings.

• A2 Milk: The stock saw a slight pullback in short interest ahead of its half-year FY25 results. Shares surged more than 15% on Monday after the company posted higher-than-expected EBITDA and dividends, along with an upgraded FY25 revenue outlook to low-to-mid double-digit growth (previously mid-to-high single digits).