Morning Wrap: ASX set to fall, oil higher as Trump changes deadline

ASX 200 futures are down 93 pts (-1.1%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• US markets all weaker overnight but things are fluid this morning, driven by headlines

• Trump says Iran let 10 oil ships through Hormuz, and will pause energy attacks for 10 days

• WTI crude closed up 3.8% but pared gains, gold down more than 3%

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 27 Mar 26, 8:27am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,477	-1.74%
Dow Jones	45,960	-1.01%
NASDAQ Comp	21,408	-2.38%
Russell 2000	2,493	-1.70%
Country Indices
Canada	31,888	-1.53%
China	3,889	-1.09%
Germany	22,613	-1.50%
Hong Kong	24,856	-1.89%
India	75,273	+1.63%
Japan	53,604	-0.27%
United Kingdom	9,972	-1.33%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,374.7	-3.41%
Copper	5.44	-1.56%
WTI Oil	93.79	+3.84%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6893	+0.08%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	68,891	-2.97%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,990	-4.87%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.416	+2.03%
VIX	27.44	+8.33%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 trended lower to close near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks all lost ground; Dow slides more than 450 points, pressured by rising oil prices and doubts over Iran negotiations

• Yields jump 12–14bp, bond volatility weighs after weak auctions, financial conditions tighten as yields spike

• Gold drops 3.4%, silver tumbles 6.5%

• Bitcoin falls 3.2% as risk appetite fades, Dollar rises 0.4% as markets turn risk-off

• Growth under pressure as value holds up

ENERGY

• Trump claims the energy shock will be short-lived, but CEOs privately warn of its far-reaching impact

• Iran drafts bill to impose fees on vessels for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg)

• Trump administration modelling economic impact of oil at $200 (Bloomberg)

• Iran war challenges Trump's tolerance for oil market pain, leading to abrupt policy shifts based on crude prices (FT)

• Asian and European LNG buyers turn to US for limited supplies with Qatar offline (Bloomberg)

IRAN

• Trump says he will pause energy attacks for ten days at Iran’s request

• Iran’s initial response to the US proposal to end the war, which was conveyed to Pakistan, was that it was “one-sided and unfair”, a senior Iranian official said.

• Trump's claim of Iran's "present" to the US involved safe passage of fuel tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, according to officials (Times of Israel)

• Israel says it has killed Iran naval chief overseeing Strait of Hormuz blockade

• Pentagon weighing ways to deliver a “decisive blow” to Iran, including potential ground deployment and intensified bombing campaign (Axios)

• Trump aims to avoid a prolonged Iran conflict, pushing for resolution within four to six weeks

• US plan to end war would see Iran give up enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief (Washington Post )

• CENTCOM says US and Israel have significantly damaged or destroyed most Iranian facilities for missile, drone, and warship production (Times of Israel)

• Israel and Iran exchange fresh missile strikes, complicating peace efforts and prolonging conflict (Bloomberg)

• Iran laying traps and moving military personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island ahead of possible US operation (CNN)

STOCKS

• Meta boosts investment in West Texas AI data center by over sixfold to $10 billion

• Verdicts against Meta and Google's YouTube may alter Big Tech's legal protections, lead to more lawsuits and safety legislation (Washington Post)

• Nvidia-backed startup Reflection aims for a $25B valuation to counter Chinese AI initiatives

• AMD-backed Vultr aims to raise $1B to enhance its AI cloud capabilities (The Information)

• Blackstone nearing a deal to acquire Rowan Digital Infrastructure, a key US data center developer (The Information)

• Amazon expands its returns network by adding FedEx Office locations, simplifying returns for shoppers (Axios)

• H&M's Q1 sales miss estimates, impacted by weak consumption and currency effects (Reuters)

TARIFFS

• Trump will meet China President Xi in Beijing on 14-15 May, Xi coming to US later in the year (Bloomberg)

• Germany identifies US supply chain vulnerabilities to prepare EU for pressure in future disputes with Trump administration (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Governor Miran raises his estimate of year-end interest rate by 50 bp, cites inflation trends since December (Bloomberg)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent said to have explored redefining Fed-Treasury ties in line with the BoE's model (FT)

• ECB's Nagel says central bank may raise interest rates in April if inflation worsens due to the Iran war (Reuters )

• BOJ reports core consumer price index rose 2.2% in February, indicating underlying inflation for potential rate hikes (Reuters )

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent said board balancing tighter financial conditions against rise in inflation expectations (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• IMF assessing which countries may need financial aid if Iran conflict persists (Bloomberg)

• Iran war raises global stagflation fears, jeopardising growth, confidence and worsening public finances for governments (FT)

• Census Bureau reports US population growth slows to lowest rate since the pandemic, primarily due to decreased immigration (FT)

• UK household confidence at lowest level under Labour government (Bloomberg)

• German GfK consumer confidence to slip in April, lowest since March 2024 amid rising energy prices (Investing.com)

• South Korea unveils a $17B "wartime" budget in response to economic disruptions from rising oil prices (Nikkei)

• Japan corporate services inflation nudges higher amid pressures in labor-heavy industries (Reuters)

• China's smaller manufacturers feeling pressure from surging input costs (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• The ASX is set for a heavy fall, but things are fluid this morning and evolving in real time.

• Trump's announcement about extending the deadline came towards the end, or just after the close of the NY session, so it may provide some relief

• In his weekly note, Morningstar's Lochlan Halloway said that despite heightened uncertainty in the Middle East, the current environment is presenting opportunities for long-term investors, with Aussie and US equities attractively priced

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Xero (XRO) has partnered with Anthropic to integrate Claude into its platform and bring Xero financial data into Claude.ai, with rollout expected in the coming months. The deal will also see Xero’s engineering teams use Claude and Cowork to accelerate internal product development.

BROKER MOVES

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare upgraded to Outperform from Hold; target cut to $35 from $35.50 (CLSA)

• Sims upgraded to Overweight from Neutral; target raised to $23 from $21.50 (Jarden)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 27 Mar: Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.095

• Mon 30 Mar: Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.042, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.064, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.052, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.042, DPM Metals (DPM) – $0.042, EVZ (EVZ) – $0.005, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.022, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.01, Verbrec (VBC) – $0.001, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.006

• Tue 31 Mar: Genusplus Group (GNP) – $0.02, Maas Group Holdings (MGH) – $0.035, New Hope Corporation (NHC) – $0.10, Staude Capital Global Value Fund (GVF) – $0.033

• Wed 1 Apr: ARB Corporation (ARB) – $0.34, Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) – $0.145, Lindsay Australia (LAU) – $0.021, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.051

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Australian Finance Group (AFG), Beacon Lighting Group (BLX), Breville Group (BRG), BSP Financial Group (BFL), Ebos Group (EBO), FFI Holdings (FFI), Globe International (GLB), Hansen Technologies (HSN), Infragreen Group (IFN), Joyce Corp (JYC), LaserBond (LBL), McMillan Shakespeare (MMS), Monadelphous Group (MND), Motorcycle Holdings (MTO), Origin Energy (ORG), Prime Financial Group (PFG), Saferoads Holdings (SRH), Sky Network Television (SKT), Teaminvest Private Group (TIP), Telstra Group (TLS), Universal Store Holdings (UNI), Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 6:00 pm: UK Retail Sales