Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to tumble, S&P 500 slips as oil prices surge, Gold and copper prices give back gains

ASX 200 futures are down 128 pts (-1.45%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Aussie stocks set to tumble as Middle East crisis shows no signs of de-escalation, oil prices continue to climb higher and commodity prices slump

• Major US benchmarks lower but closed off worst levels, breadth was relatively week with the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the cap-weighted index by ~60 bps

• Oil continues its volatile path higher as Middle East war showing no signs of negotiations and talks of an extended conflict timeline, Brent is testing the US$80 level for the first time since Jan-25

• Private credit remains a sore spot, with BlackRock slashing the value of a private loan to zero at the end of 2025, just three months after assessing it at 100 cents on the dollar

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 06 Mar 26, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,831	-0.56%
Dow Jones	47,955	-1.61%
NASDAQ Comp	22,749	-0.26%
Russell 2000	2,584	-1.97%
Country Indices
Canada	33,610	-0.98%
China	4,109	+0.64%
Germany	23,816	-1.61%
Hong Kong	25,321	+0.28%
India	80,016	+1.14%
Japan	55,278	+1.90%
United Kingdom	10,414	-1.45%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,078.01	-1.14%
Copper	5.77	-1.47%
WTI Oil	79.85	+5.91%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7012	-0.90%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	71,328	-2.43%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,990	-2.69%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.146	+1.62%
VIX	23.55	+11.32%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower, but finished off worst levels

• S&P 500 now down 0.7% week-to-date, Nasdaq still tracking 0.3% higher

• Commodities (ex-Energy) broadly lower and closing near worst levels

• WTI crude up ~4% and testing the US$80 level for the first time since January 2025

• Weak breadth, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-1.16%) underperforming the cap weighted index ~60 bps

• Risk-off sentiment continued as Middle East war intensifies, with talks of extended conflict timelines and no negotiations. This is driving an uptick in bond yields (US 10-year up 183 bps in the last four sessions), firmer US dollar and pickup in growth/inflation fears

• Iran war disrupts 'Sell America, Buy Asia' trade, investors shift back to US haven assets (BBG)

• Bond traders increasingly betting Fed will hold through 2026, CME Fedwatch has one 25 bp cut as the base case (BBG)

• US dollar heading for best week since 2022 as Iran conflict triggers flight to safety (BBG)

• South Korea President Lee orders US$68.3bn stabilisation package, KOSPI rallies 9.6% after falling 18% in the previous two sessions (KT)

• Japan 30-year bond auction draws stronger demand, yields remains higher amid broader market weakness (BBG)

ENERGY

• White House 'looking under every rock' for ideas on bringing down gas prices in wake of US attacks on Iran (POL)

• Persian Gulf oil producers may need to curtail output as transit remains risky and local storage fills up (RT)

• Iranian drone strike hits Bahrain refinery (OP)

• Iran has capacity to disrupt Strait of Hormuz for months through sustained drone operations and mine deployment (RT)

• China suspends new refined fuel export contracts amid Middle East conflict curbing refinery output (RT)

STOCKS

• Broadcom guides revenue above expectations, expects AI chip revenue to top $100bn in 2027, shares rally ~5% (CNBC)

• BlackRock slashed private loan value from 100 to zero (BBG)

• Anthropic in talks with Pentagon in last-ditch attempt to reach compromise on military use of company's AI models (FT)

• Nvidia halts production of H200 chips for China amid US and Beijing regulatory barriers (FT)

• Abercrombie anticipating a "slight sales headwind" from Iran war due to its sourcing operations in the Mideast (BBG)

• OpenAI surpasses $25bn annualised revenue as rival Anthropic closes gap (TI)

• Morgan ​Stanley lays off 2,500 employees across major divisions, about 3% of workforce (RT)

• Merck sees 2026 profit drop from Mavenclad generics, boosted by AI semiconductor demand (BBG)

• DHL forecasts higher 2026 profit despite Middle East conflict and weak European demand (GBF)

• Blue Owl Capital under growing short pressure amid stock's sharp yearly decline (BBG)

IRAN

• Iran war could last up to eight weeks, says US Defense Secretary Hegseth (AP)

• Israel launches 11th wave of attacks against Iran, also strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut (CNN)

• Iran launches fresh wave of attacks across the Gulf with strikes reported in the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar (BBG)

• Iranian foreign minister says 'confident' it can counter a potential US ground invasion, sees no reason for more talks (NBC)

• Trump says he needs to be personally involved in selecting Iran's next leader, says Mojtaba Khamenei unacceptable (AX)

• Iran is increasingly relying on cheap drones rather than missiles to attack Gulf states (BBG)

TARIFFS

• US trade court orders billions in tariff refunds to importers after Supreme Court ruling (CNBC)

• US and Japan weigh nuclear plant and copper refining facility as next candidates under investment deal (NK)

• Australia and Canada sign critical minerals deals, joining G7 alliance to diversify from China (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Barkin says Fed response to Iran conflict will depend on length of shock to oil (BBG)

• ECB's Pierre Wunsch warns Iran war risks inflation surge, urges stronger euro for global role (BBG)

• ECB says Eurozone banks see low direct Iran war exposure but face energy-driven recession risks (RT)

ECONOMY

• China sets GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, signaling tolerance for slower pace, reiterates inflation and employment targets (BBG)

• China vows to deepen high tech investment, increase consumption as share of economic output (RTs)

• Australia household spending growth disappoints, adding to signs of consumption weakness (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Star Entertainment’s former CEO and Chief Legal & Risk Officer breached handling of risk duties associated with money laundering and criminal activity, according to Federal Courts (SGR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Tech/software: Through all of this, the iShares Expanded-Tech Software ETF gained another 2.3% overnight. It's now up seven of the last eight sessions, up 13.8% to a one-month high. Yesterday was a very strong session for local tech, with most names up 2-7%, notably Wisetech (+7.1%), Life360 (+5.6%) and TechnologyOne (+4.4%).

• Refiners: Viva Energy (+11.8%) and Ampol (+8.5%) surged after China suspended new refined fuel exports yesterday afternoon (and probably why fuel prices are going to go higher).'

• Resources: Weak overnight session for commodities, with most metals (gold, copper, platinum, silver, nickel) down 1-2%. The resource-related overnight ETFs took a bigger hit (down 3-6%), likely reflecting equities pricing in a more bearish path ahead.

• Gold: You might be thinking – why is gold weakening against this geopolitical backdrop? Two things come to mind. Firstly, gold often faces forced selling amid these broad risk-off events, where positions are wind down to generate cash, offset other losses and/or cover margin calls. Secondly, remember the Russia-Ukraine war? Gold initially rallied ~8% between 24-Feb-22 and 8-Mar-22, but dipped 21% in the following seven months.

BROKER MOVES

No broker notes have crossed my desk. Check out the Evening Wrap for a full breakdown of today's broker moves.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 6 Mar: Ampol (ALD) – $0.60, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Objective Corporation (OCL) – $0.13, Resimac Group (RMC) – $0.13

• Mon 9 Mar: Alcoa Corporation (AAI) – $0.098, GTN (GTN) – $0.01, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.045, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.425, Red Hill Minerals (RHI) – $0.116

• Tue 10 Mar: Adairs (ADH) – $0.055, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, COG Financial Services (COG) – $0.035, CSL (CSL) – $1.837, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.04, Generation Development Group (GDG) – $0.01, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.83, Hitech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.045, Iress (IRE) – $0.13, Liberty Financial Group (LFG) – $0.075, Nido Education (NDO) – $0.022, PRL Global (PRG) – $0.02, Qantas Airways (QAN) – $0.198, Vault Minerals (VAU) – $0.07

• Wed 11 Mar: Bhagwan Marine (BWN) – $0.005, Brambles (BXB) – $0.327, Breville Group (BRG) – $0.19, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.034, CUE Energy Resources (CUE) – $0.003, Finbar Group (FRI) – $0.025, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.017, Ive Group (IGL) – $0.095, Kip McGrath Education Centres (KME) – $0.01, Naos Ex-50 Opportunities Company (NAC) – $0.016, Peet (PPC) – $0.065, Tasmea (TEA) – $0.06, Thorney Opportunities (TOP) – $0.011, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.021

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Korvest (KOV), Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 12:30 am: US Non Farm Payrolls 

• 12:30 am: US Retail Sales