Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 tanks on hot producer prices, oil hits 4-month high

The S&P 500 was lower overnight after latest inflation numbers flagged a re-acceleration in wholesale prices, US bond yields rose for a fourth straight session which weighed on yield sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Utilities, oil prices push above US$80 a barrel to levels not seen since November 2023 and lithium prices tumbled 7% on Thursday (which may weigh on local names today).

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set for a heavy session after Wall Street finished lower on hot inflation data

• Auckland Airport reports preliminary February traffic numbers, up 27% year-on-year and international passengers up 32% year-on-year

• Latitude Group CEO Roberty Nicholas Belan discloses sale of 1.5m shares

• Tabcorp CEO Adam Rytenskild resigns with immediate effective due to workplace issues

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower but finished off worst levels, follows a mixed previous session

• Breadth was broadly negative though some strength in energy and big tech like Alphabet (+2.5%), Microsoft (+2.4%) and Amazon (+1.2%)

• Busy day on the macro front, with hotter-than-expected US producer prices and softer than expected retail sales – Sticky inflation data weighs on first Fed rate cut debate

• Yields up for a fourth straight session, with the US 10-year yield up 21 bps since last Friday

• Crude oil up 3.9% over the last two sessions, highest since Nov-23

• Societe Generale says market not in a bubble and S&P would need to rise 20% to resemble 1990s bubble (Bloomberg)

• Global dividends seen growing further after 2023's record US$1.6tn (Reuters)

• IEA says oil markets face supply deficit all year on OPEC+ cuts and boosts forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 (Bloomberg)

• Memecoin trading volumes at highest level since Oct-2021 (Bloomberg)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Reddit says it expects more than 20% revenue growth in 2024 (Bloomberg)

• KKR to acquire renewable-energy producer Encavis AG in ~$3bn deal (Bloomberg)

• Volkswagen considering partnership to produce cheaper EVs to compete with low-cost Chinese rivals (FT)

• Google reducing size of compensation with some seeing pay cuts (Business Insider)

• Apple acquires Canadian startup DarwinAI (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed has more reasons to wait on interest rates cuts after hot PPI data (Bloomberg)

• BoJ gearing up to discuss ending NIRP and scrapping yield-curve control (Nikkei)

• ECB's Stournaras says they must cut rates twice before summer break (Bloomberg)

• PBoC set to leave rates unchanged Friday amid Fed cut uncertainity (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICS

• US and China discreetly extend landmark bilateral deal (WSJ)

• Ukraine continues second day of assault on Russian energy infrastructure, hitting refineries deep inside Russia (FT)

• US held secret talks with Iran in bid to convince Tehran to use its influence over Houthis to stop Red Sea attacks (FT)

ECONOMY

• US retail sales miss forecasts after steep drop in prior month (Bloomberg)

• US producer prices rose in February by the most in six months, driven by higher fuel and food costs that add to evidence inflation remains sticky (Bloomberg)

Re-accelerating Producer Prices

US producer prices data came in pretty hot, leading to higher yields and a rather risk off day for equities. The increase in PPI indicates that the prices of goods and services used as inputs for final products are rising, which may lead to higher prices for consumers.

The data for February showed:

• Headline PPI was up 0.6% month-on-month vs. consensus of 0.3%

• Core PPI up 0.3% month-on-month vs. consensus of 0.2%

• Annualised PPI was 1.6% vs. consensus 1.1% and the hottest since Sep-23

• Prices paid for producers for goods rose 1.2%, the first increase in five months and largely driven by higher energy costs

• Costs of processed goods for intermediate demand (things earlier in the production pipeline) also rose for the first time in five months

There is typically a 2-3 month lag before the producer prices impact consumer prices.

Sectors to Watch

A relatively heavy overnight session, with major US benchmarks masking underlying weakness across several sectors.

Yield sensitive sectors: Bond yields jumped following the hot PPI data. This could take a tool on yield sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Utilities (worst performing S&P 500 sectors overnight) as well as gold and materials (more broadly speaking).

Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures tumbled 7.0% on Thursday (it was already red when our market closed but fell further). In the past five days, lithium futures rallied as much as 7.7% but now back to around breakeven.

Energy: Crude oil up 1.8% overnight, above the key US$80 level and the highest since November 2023. The IEA raised its forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and said it expects to see a supply deficit throughout the year (instead of a surplus). It also forecasts further OPEC+ output cuts in the second half of the year. Interestingly, local energy stocks struggled to mirror oil price gains on Thursday, with Beach Energy up 1.3%, Woodside up 0.9% and Beach Energy down 1.5%.

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Duratec (DUR) – $0.015, Car Group (CAR) – $0.345, Ariadne Australia (ARA) – $0.003

• Dividends paid: Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – $0.27, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, Probiotec (PBP) – $0.035, Schaffter Corp (SFC) – $0.45, Ashley Services (ASH) – $0.005, Beacon Lighting (BLX) – $0.04

• Listing: Litchfield Minerals (LMS) at 11:00 am

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.