Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall for a fifth straight session, S&P 500 wavers on hawkish Fedspeak

The blue-chip Dow managed to close in positive territory while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their losing streaks, Powell said the Fed will likely delay rate cuts this year amid inflation uncertainty, the US 2-year Treasury yield briefly touches 5.0%, yield-sensitive sectors like REITs and utilities sold off sharply overnight, Gina discloses a 5.8% stake in Lynas Rare Earths and several large caps are due to report their quarterly numbers today.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower in a relatively range bound session (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower, traded within a narrow range and down for a third straight session

• US 10-year yield near highest level since early-November and US 2-year yield briefly touched 5.0% 

• Yield-sensitive sectors including REITs, utilities and small caps underperformed

• BofA latest Global Fund Manager Survey says investors most bullish since Jan-22, marking the biggest increase in optimism in nearly two years (Reuters)

• Citi strategists say further US stock market weakness could be exacerbated by selling of large long futures positions (Bloomberg)

• US dollar call option premium hits 5-month high as traders bet on more gains (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open lower for a fifth straight session

• ASX 200 is currently trading at its most oversold level since 1 November 2023

• Markets continue to lean risk off and down 3.6% from late-March peaks and below the 50-DMA for the first time since last November

• Risk-off drivers include geopolitical uncertainty and its implications for oil prices, volatility spike (ASX 200 VIX up 23% in two sessions), hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations and soaring bond yields

• Woodside, Santos, Cooper Energy, Deterra Royalties and BHP scheduled to report quarterly numbers today

• Bank of Queensland to report first-half FY24 results, consensus is look for cash NPAT of $162.6m, net interest income of $729.8m and NIM of 1.53%

• Hancock Prospecting discloses 5.8% stake in Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Seven Group’s acquisition of 51% stake in Coronado Global in doubt (The Australian)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Tesla says global job cuts include reducing staff in the US and China (Reuters)

• Microsoft to invest US$1.5bn in G42, an Abu Dhabi AI company (FT)

• Baidu says company's ChatGPT-like Ernie bot has exceeded 200m users (CNBC)

• Intel will release two AI chips with reduced capabilities for the Chinese market (Reuters)

• UBS faces increase in regulatory capital requirements that could reach ~US$20bn under Swiss plan (Bloomberg)

• Bank of America, PNC the latest banks to show stalling loan growth (FT)

• Bank of America tops estimates on better-than-expected interest income (CNBC)

• LVMH quarterly sales growth weakest since pandemic recovery began (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed Chair Powell said recent firm inflation data have introduced uncertainty over when and whether the Fed will be able to cut this year (CNBC)

• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says the economy remains strong and that there has seen little progress on the pace of price increases, leaving open the possibility of holding if inflation remains more persistent than expected (Reuters)

• ECB's Rehn warns on geopolitical impact on rate decision (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Israeli war cabinet meeting for a third straight day today, with reports officials want to "send a painful message" to Tehran (FT)

• US and allies stepping up efforts to convince Israel against striking back at Iran, leaders preparing sanctions on Tehran (FT)

ECONOMY

• China GDP growth beats expectations but soft March activity data adds to signs early year recovery is fading (Bloomberg)

• China house prices register fastest drop since Aug-2015 (Reuters)

• German ZEW economic sentiment improves amid positive export outlook (Bloomberg)

• UK unemployment ticks higher, wage growth firmer than expected (Bloomberg)

• US single-family housing starts plunge 14.7% month-on-month in March (Reuters)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 17 April: Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL) – $0.40 

• Thu 18 April: The Reject Shop (TRS) – $0.10, WAM Capital (WAM) – $0.077, Horizon Oil (HZN) – $0.015 

• Fri 19 April: WAM Research (WAX) – $0.05 

• Mon 22 April: MFF Capital (MFF) – $0.06

• Tue 23 April: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.10, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.005, Kelsian Group (KLS) – $0.08, Veem (VEE) – $0.007

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:50 am: Japan Balance of Trade (Mar)

• 4:00 pm: UK Inflation (Mar)