Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps on mining and gold routs as investors switch to WTC, XRO and tech stocks

The ASX 200 ended the week 1.7% lower as the session's as a flight of capital out of mining and gold stocks landed in beaten-down technology names. BHP's 3.3% drop ahead of next week's result was the decisive drag – but it just tracked overnight losses in London and New York...

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 73.3 points lower at , 0.80% from its session high and just 0.27% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 111 to 172.

For the week, the XJO finished down 148 points or 1.6% lower, 1.8% from its intraweek high and just 0.3% from its intraweek low.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.8%) was the week's most emphatic rotation story and today's clearest winner — capital pulled straight from mining and gold stocks found its way into a sector that was FY26's worst performer (vs against mining's best!)

The move has the hallmarks of a sustained rerating rather than a one-day bounce: WiseTech Global (WTC) (+5.5%) and Xero (XRO) (+5.5%) are both curling meaningfully higher from their lows, the same recovery pattern seen earlier in healthcare with CSL and Cochlear. Catapult Sports (CAT) (+3.3%) and Technology One (TNE) (+3.2%) also advanced.

S&P-ASX 200 Information Technology Sector Index intraday chart

Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.5%) caught some of the same technology tailwind through its SaaS-adjacent classified names. Seek (SEK) (+9.1%) — which had fallen 14% on Thursday following a $200 million write-down — bounced sharply as investors reassessed whether the post-result selling was excessive. CAR Group (CAR) (+5.5%) also surged.

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart

Financials (XFJ) (-0.1%) finished fractionally negative but in the context of the week's battering — and given CBA's continued drift lower — holding near flat represents a degree of resilience. ANZ (ANZ) (+2.2%) basked in the afterglow of Thursday's quarterly update, with UBS separately naming it the cheapest of the big four banks. Macquarie Group (MQG) (+0.7%) was also positive. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-1.1%) continued its post-results drift, while QBE Insurance (QBE) (-1.6%) fell after posting a largely flat half-year profit.

S&P-ASX 200 Materials Sector Index intraday chart

Materials (XMJ) (-2.6%) was the session's most consequential loser and the source of most of the index's damage. The move was global in origin — BHP shares fell 2.6% in London and 3.2% in New York on Thursday night before the ASX had even opened, and Alcoa dropped 3.2% on the NYSE.

The most credible explanation is that benchmark bond yields fell on weaker US economic data, which signals slower global growth and reduces the demand outlook for industrial commodities. ICE Brent crude's 1.4% Asian session gain to US$88.31/bbl may also have added to concern for energy-intensive smelting and processing operations. COMEX copper futures fell 0.3% to US$6.586/lb in Asian trade after declining 0.6% on the LME Thursday.

South32 (S32) (-3.4%), BHP (BHP) (-3.3%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (-3.1%), and Capstone Copper (CSC) (-2.7%) were all sharply lower. Alcoa (AAI) (-3.2%) fell separately after signing a 10-year gas supply deal with Equus Energy at a cost of $1.5 billion — a transaction that, while strategically sensible, highlighted the scale of energy input costs facing aluminium smelters.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-2.4%) was swept up in the same global mining rotation. COMEX gold futures fell 0.7% to US$4,390/oz after dropping a further 1.0% overnight — precious metals gave ground alongside base metals in what appeared to be broad commodity-sector repositioning. Catalyst Metals (CYL) (-4.3%), St Barbara (SBM) (-4.1%), Evolution Mining (EVN) (-3.4%), and Ora Banda Mining (OBM) (-3.0%) were all sharply lower.

In other commodities moves, uranium stocks were hit hard as global uranium names fell sharply overnight — Bannerman Energy (BMN) (-5.0%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (-4.5%), Silex Systems (SLX) (-3.9%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (-3.4%), and Boss Energy (BOE) (-3.3%) all declined.

Lithium stocks on the other hand enjoyed another productive session as GFEX lithium carbonate futures gained 1.6% to CNY 153,940/t, their fourth positive session out of five this week. Wildcat Resources (WC8) (+7.2%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (+3.7%), Core Lithium (CXO) (+1.4%), and Elevra Lithium (ELV) (+1.2%) all advanced in what is now shaping as a sustained recovery from the sector's June-July lows.

S&P-ASX 200 Health Care Sector Index intraday chart

Health Care (XHJ) (-0.7%) gave back some of its strong recent gains in what appeared to be straightforward profit-taking heading into the weekend — the sector has delivered a remarkable run from its June lows and some position reduction ahead of a heavy results week ahead is understandable. Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (-3.6%), Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.6%), and Ebos Group (EBO) (-2.0%) bore the heaviest losses, while CSL (CSL) (-0.7%) barely moved.

Analysis

As Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith used to say: "I love it when a plan comes together."

Thursday's candle sits in the "going to plan" camp. White-bodied, close near high, close above the last two peaks (5-Aug & 10-Aug), close above the bottom of the 26789-27191 supply zone. ✅✅✅

"I love it when a plan comes together."

Everything we as trend following technical analysts (disciples of demand and supply) would have expected following the sweeping demand-side controlled run from 24425.

Because the 6 candle pause between the strong demand side candle on 4-Aug and last night's candle simply didn't indicate the supply side had the motivation or the ammunition to wrestle control of the Comp's price.

The demand side's dominance was never in doubt. Thursday's candle is the logical manifestation of demand growing more impatient / motivated and bidding prices higher to entice out supply which remains committed to HOFU.

But here's one of my own catch phrases that is pertinent here: "The last candle is history, the next is a mystery!" 🕯️🔮

We cannot assume any future outcome, because the future is unknown – rendering all prediction futile!

There's still plenty of work to be done to completely dislodge any remaining supply in the 26789-27191 supply zone – and there's still every chance we see a supply side showing soon (i.e., black-bodied candle and or upward pointing shadow).

The bigger the supply side showing, and the greater the volume accompanying it, the greater the warning signal ⚠️. But similarly, it will be just as telling – perhaps even more so – if we don't see any...

View

I am 2/3RP on US stocks. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

27191 is the key point of supply vs the short term trend ribbon (presently 25954-26070) is the key zone of demand.

Analysis

Oh OTP... Why!? Why can't you just bottle it! 🤦

No plans coming together here. Just the same old bloody barbell again. Stuff on the left (mining stocks) getting belted and cash flowing straight to the stuff on the right (not mining stocks).

Just today, not enough cash went right to keep us afloat.

And far more annoying: the stuff on the left was just starting to look good again! 😭

I got nothing for you tonight. Cooked for the week! Can I offer (ASIC stop reading!): We all sell up here and just invest in the US of A! 🗽

View

I am FRP on Aussie stocks. (My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in ASX stocks is now 100%).

Key Levels

There is no key point of supply to contend with, while demand is at 9297 and then at the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8994-9068).

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

***CHARTWATCH LIVE WEBINARS 📺🍿***

GOLD! The Gold price is rising again: Massive ASX Gold sector review 🏅

TODAY

• AUS July CB Leading Index

  • Result: +0.3% unchanged (June revised up from 0.2%)

LATER THIS WEEK

Friday

• 22:00 USA July Core Retail Sales (+0.2% m/m forecast vs -0.2% m/m previous)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (54.4 forecast vs 55.2 previous)

• 00:00 USA Preliminary July University of Michigan Inflation Expectations