News | Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides on rising US credit concerns, gold sublime as critical minerals swing from melt-up to melt-down
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 73.1 points lower, down 0.81%.
Mentioned
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 73.1 points lower, down 0.81%.
Houston, we have a problem. There's a bug in the system, there may be several. Those bugs are JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's "cockroaches" – the possibility that the failures of two US auto-industry companies are the beginning and not the end of a potential mini-credit crunch.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Fri 17 Oct 25, 5:15pm (AEST)
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,995.3 | -0.81% |
| All Ords | 9,293.2 | -0.88% |
| Small Ords | 3,821.2 | -1.37% |
| All Tech | 4,077.8 | -1.80% |
| Emerging Companies | 3,064.6 | -3.19% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6476 | -0.13% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 6,623.0 | -0.69% |
| Dow Jones | 45,953.0 | -0.45% |
| Nasdaq | 24,634.0 | -0.79% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Consumer Staples | 11,686.6 | +0.33% |
| Utilities | 9,964.9 | +0.07% |
| Materials | 20,022.4 | +0.07% |
| Communication Services | 1,830.8 | -0.19% |
| Industrials | 8,639.5 | -0.61% |
| Real Estate | 4,147.7 | -0.80% |
| Health Care | 39,285.5 | -0.99% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 4,361.2 | -1.04% |
| Financials | 9,661.3 | -1.20% |
| Information Technology | 2,788.2 | -1.91% |
| Energy | 8,073.2 | -2.80% |
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Markets
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ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 73.1 points lower at 8,995.3, 0.81% from its session high and just 0.06% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a dismal and disturbing 67 to 210.
For the week, the XJO finished up 37 points or 0.41% higher, but this was a far cry from its best and worst points of this week’s trade – some 1.71% from the intraweek low and 1.27% from the intraweek high.
Fund flows: History doesn't repeat, but it sure rhymes!
Houston, we have a problem. There's a bug in the system, there may be several. Those bugs are JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's "cockroaches" – the possibility that the failures of two US auto-industry companies are the beginning and not the end of a potential mini-credit crunch.
Accordingly, nerves were frayed in US markets overnight as several regional banks disclosed bad loans and investors marked to market the risk of contagion.
I could bang on about which sector was best and worst today, (Gold (XGD) (+1.3%) and Energy (XEJ) (-2.8%)) – but ultimately it's a general increase in risk aversion that triggered our market to sell off from its new record high set only yesterday.
If you remember the last US regional banking crisis... um what year was it again...? I've done so many crises over the years I forget – it got really nasty really quick. Okay, I just looked it up, #BankingCrisis was March 2023. Feels like longer ago than that!
Ok, back then, I showed you two charts to help you navigate the crisis. Here they are again so you can play along at home. Hint: You don't want to see either of them fall precipitously!
US 10 Year T-Bond Yield chart (click here for full size image)
This is risk aversion in a nutshell – the world's go to risk free asset. If this chart is falling (i.e., yields falling) it means investors are bidding up the price US 10-year T-Bonds. It means they're swapping risk for safety. If this chart begins to fall precipitously, things will get ugly in US stocks (yes despite the fact that market rates are coming down).
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KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) chart (click here for full size image)
I'll leave it to you to go back to March 2023 to see how this one behaved – and what that did to the broader US stock market, and of course, our own. Anyways, you've been warned. It may come to nothing, and you can read my latest Nasdaq technical analysis here. But forewarned equals forearmed sort of stuff 👍.
Stock Specific: U-stocks torpedoed
Uranium stocks came in for some very nasty treatment today. I couldn't find anything definitive on the wires, just this. The uranium price was largely unchanged overnight and I have full technical analysis on it for you here. It's annoying, because apart from perennial dog Boss Energy (BOE) (-5.9%), many of them were looking very good on the charts.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lotus Resources (LOT) | $0.210 | -$0.035 | -14.3% | +5.0% | -22.2% |
Alligator Energy (AGE) | $0.027 | -$0.004 | -12.9% | +3.8% | -41.3% |
Bannerman Energy (BMN) | $3.52 | -$0.5 | -12.4% | +1.7% | +7.3% |
Peninsula Energy (PEN) | $0.680 | -$0.065 | -8.7% | +81.3% | -52.3% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | $9.20 | -$0.67 | -6.8% | +13.6% | -22.2% |
Elevate Uranium (EL8) | $0.450 | -$0.03 | -6.3% | +42.9% | +18.4% |
Nexgen Energy (NXG) | $13.62 | -$0.89 | -6.1% | +12.6% | +22.2% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | $1.825 | -$0.115 | -5.9% | -7.8% | -48.9% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $2.32 | -$0.14 | -5.7% | +17.8% | +55.2% |
Aura Energy (AEE) | $0.230 | -$0.01 | -4.2% | -2.1% | +53.3% |
ASX uranium stocks performance today
Elsewhere, the critical minerals crunch continued. Risk-off never helps, neither does the fact it's a Friday – but the vertical moves of the last couple of weeks are retracing a little (okay, more than a little). In the bigs, Iluka Resources (ILU) (-2.4%) and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-5.9%) lost further ground, but these losses were mild compared to many of those at the smaller end. For those, I'll let you check the Biggest Movers Losers section after News, below 👇.
Today's best blue chip gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | $6.50 | +$0.23 | +3.7% | -12.8% | -45.3% |
Newmont Corp. (NEM) | $149.96 | +$4.19 | +2.9% | +26.6% | +84.8% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $5.17 | +$0.14 | +2.8% | +23.4% | +86.6% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $26.05 | +$0.59 | +2.3% | +27.3% | +57.8% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $11.67 | +$0.22 | +1.9% | +26.7% | +148.8% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $20.18 | +$0.37 | +1.9% | +7.6% | -1.4% |
Stockland (SGP) | $6.52 | +$0.09 | +1.4% | +4.7% | +21.2% |
Rio Tinto (RIO) | $130.88 | +$1.61 | +1.2% | +13.3% | +7.2% |
Transurban Group (TCL) | $14.76 | +$0.18 | +1.2% | +4.4% | +9.6% |
The Lottery Corp. (TLC) | $5.74 | +$0.07 | +1.2% | -2.0% | +13.0% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $2.68 | +$0.03 | +1.1% | +17.0% | -3.9% |
Amcor PLC (AMC) | $12.57 | +$0.14 | +1.1% | +0.9% | -25.3% |
South32 (S32) | $3.22 | +$0.03 | +0.9% | +24.8% | -13.0% |
Woolworths Group (WOW) | $26.72 | +$0.21 | +0.8% | -2.8% | -18.9% |
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) | $3.35 | +$0.02 | +0.6% | +4.4% | -5.4% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | $12.23 | +$0.04 | +0.3% | -1.5% | +20.6% |
Endeavour Group (EDV) | $3.56 | +$0.01 | +0.3% | -3.0% | -27.3% |
Scentre Group (SCG) | $4.11 | +$0.01 | +0.2% | +1.0% | +13.5% |
Telstra Group (TLS) | $4.85 | +$0.01 | +0.2% | -0.6% | +24.7% |
Coles Group (COL) | $23.09 | +$0.04 | +0.2% | -2.1% | +28.4% |
Today's worst blue chip losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QBE Insurance Group (QBE) | $19.52 | -$1.99 | -9.3% | -3.5% | +15.6% |
Life360 (360) | $45.54 | -$3.95 | -8.0% | -9.4% | +108.3% |
Hub24 (HUB) | $105.25 | -$7.39 | -6.6% | +1.0% | +61.7% |
AMP (AMP) | $1.790 | -$0.12 | -6.3% | +2.9% | +33.6% |
Insurance Australia (IAG) | $7.75 | -$0.51 | -6.2% | -7.0% | +3.2% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $19.24 | -$1.16 | -5.7% | +31.7% | +148.3% |
Suncorp Group (SUN) | $19.56 | -$0.88 | -4.3% | -3.7% | +8.2% |
Light & Wonder (LNW) | $117.06 | -$4.69 | -3.9% | -12.0% | -17.6% |
Block (XYZ) | $112.74 | -$4.28 | -3.7% | -2.2% | +5.1% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | $33.42 | -$1.24 | -3.6% | +15.9% | -38.1% |
Santos (STO) | $6.17 | -$0.21 | -3.3% | -8.5% | -13.2% |
Challenger (CGF) | $8.87 | -$0.29 | -3.2% | +3.3% | +30.1% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $6.81 | -$0.21 | -3.0% | +28.5% | +227.4% |
A2 Milk Company (A2M) | $9.20 | -$0.26 | -2.7% | +5.1% | +44.7% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $22.10 | -$0.6 | -2.6% | -4.2% | -10.9% |
Reliance Worldwide (RWC) | $3.87 | -$0.1 | -2.5% | -8.9% | -32.9% |
Medibank Private (MPL) | $4.67 | -$0.12 | -2.5% | -2.9% | +25.9% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $32.09 | -$0.81 | -2.5% | +2.8% | +13.8% |
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) | $12.48 | -$0.31 | -2.4% | -3.1% | +4.8% |
Pro Medicus (PME) | $285.60 | -$7.04 | -2.4% | -4.4% | +50.0% |
ChartWatch
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
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S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)
Yesterday’s heroics have been nearly perfectly nullified by today’s move. White, black ⬜⬛.
I’d almost not blame the Old Tin Pot – there’s just too much going on overseas to ignore. Namely, the threat of a mini-credit crunch (Dimon’s “cockroaches” are scampering about! 🪳)
I think you already know what I’m going to say here – and it's about that time on a Friday afternoon – so let me do us all a favour and be brief 🍺!
Today’s candle is a credible supply-side showing – yet everything else continues to point to strong demand-side control. Most importantly: I can’t tell the future.
View: Given the present and the past smacks of demand-side control, I have no other option but to remain FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).
Key levels: 8843 is the closest key point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price. Ultimately though, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.
Economy
Today
There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.
Later this week
Friday
23:30 (Tentative due to shutdown) USA September Building & Housing Permits
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+21.2% Cufe (CUF) - No news since 16-Oct Becoming a substantial holder (Terra Capital 7.3%), general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+21.2% Lode Resources (LDR) - 31.1% Antimony Intercepted at Magwood, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+20.5% Stakk (SKK) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+17.6% Sunshine Metals (SHN) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+16.7% Nova Minerals (NVA) - No news since 16-Oct Nova Undertakes Share Split of NASDAQ Listed ADSs, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+16.7% Tivan (TVN) - Tivan to commence drilling at Sandover Fluorite Project, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈
+14.3% Native Mineral Resources Holdings (NMR) - No news 🤔, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.
+14.3% Titan Minerals (TTM) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+7.1% Amplia Therapeutics (ATX) - Amplia Therapeutics to Significantly Expand U.S. Presence.
+6.9% Golden Horse Minerals (GHM) - Becoming a substantial holder (Bank of Nova Scotia 5%), general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+6.5% Beacon Minerals (BCN) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+6.1% Challenger Gold (CEL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+5.9% Hipages Group Holdings (HPG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+4.5% Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (SX2) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+4.1% Emerald Resources (EMR) - Annual Report to shareholders, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+4.1% Vaneck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today (gold stocks ETF), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.8% NH3 Clean Energy (NH3) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.8% BetaShares Global Gold Miners Currency Hedged ETF (MNRS) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.7% Global X Physical Gold (GOLD) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today (Gold ETF), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.7% Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) - TWE 2025 AGM Address.
Trading lower
-33.8% Bougainville Copper 1 Kina (BOC) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-33.6% Eroad (ERD) - EROAD strengthening focus on ANZ opportunities, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-19.6% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - Change of Director's Interest Notice (2 x directors cashing out for ~$250k and ~$550k is usually going to spook investors!), general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-17.7% Metallium (MTM) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder from MUFG and Ceasing to be a substantial holder from MS, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-16.0% Avita Medical (AVH) - AVITA Medical Announces CEO Transition, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-15.6% Element 25 (E25) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-15.2% Haranga Resources (HAR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-15.0% Boab Metals (BML) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-14.3% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.
-13.7% American Rare Earths (ARR) - Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-12.9% Alligator Energy (AGE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.
-12.4% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news since 16-Oct Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cash Flow Report, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-12.2% Cettire (CTT) - No news 🤔.
-11.7% Hastings Technology Metals (HAS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-10.3% St George Mining (SGQ) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-9.8% Argosy Minerals (AGY) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-9.7% LTR Pharma (LTP) - No news 🤔.
-9.4% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today (yesterday's hero!).
-9.3% QBE Insurance Group (QBE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Financials sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉
-9.1% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - No news (yesterday's hero!).
-9.0% Toro Energy (TOE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.
-8.8% Elsight (ELS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today (yesterday's hero!).
-8.7% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.
-8.0% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today (yesterday's hero!).
-8.0% Ioneer (INR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
-8.0% Life360 (360) - No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.
-8.0% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.
Broker Moves
Adore Beauty Group (ABY)
Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25
AMP (AMP)
Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.02
Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.70
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.72
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.85
Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)
Downgraded to accumulate from speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.77
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)
Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.34
Bannerman Energy (BMN)
Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.27 from $3.86
Challenger (CGF)
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $9.20 from $8.75
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.35
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.30 from $9.60
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.10 from $9.60
Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)
Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.55
Genesis Minerals (GMD)
Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $10.00
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.50
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.05 from $8.00
Imdex (IMD)
Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.90
Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.20 from $3.55
Ora Banda Mining (OBM)
Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.10
Premier Investments (PMV)
Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $19.80
Regis Resources (RRL)
Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80 from $5.20
Santos (STO)
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.35
Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $6.10 from $6.25
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.15 from $8.25
Upgraded to accumulate from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.20
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.10 from $8.20
Super Retail Group (SUL)
Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.20
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| HWK | Hawk Resources Ltd | $0.035 | +105.88% |
| ZNO | ZOONO Group Ltd | $0.05 | +47.06% |
| JNO | Juno Minerals Ltd | $0.039 | +39.29% |
| CNJ | Conico Ltd | $0.013 | +30.00% |
| CUF | Cufe Ltd | $0.04 | +21.21% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOC | Bougainville Copper Ltd | $1.53 | -33.77% |
| ERD | Eroad Ltd | $1.70 | -33.59% |
| MTB | Mount Burgess Mining NL | $0.012 | -25.00% |
| PGM | Platina Resources Ltd | $0.031 | -22.50% |
| CZN | Corazon Mining Ltd | $0.23 | -22.03% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| HWK | Hawk Resources Ltd | $0.035 | +105.88% |
| JNO | Juno Minerals Ltd | $0.039 | +39.29% |
| CUF | Cufe Ltd | $0.04 | +21.21% |
| LDR | Lode Resources Ltd | $0.315 | +21.15% |
| LSR | Lodestar Minerals Ltd | $0.05 | +19.05% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVH | Avita Medical Inc | $1.37 | -15.95% |
| SFX | Sheffield Resources Ltd | $0.115 | -8.00% |
| AGH | Althea Group Holdings Ltd | $0.018 | -5.26% |
| BWF | Blackwall Ltd | $0.225 | -4.26% |
| LNW | Light & Wonder Inc | $117.06 | -3.85% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCI | Perpetual Credit Income Trust | $1.195 | +1.27% |
| WVOL | Ishares MSCI World Ex Aust Minimum Volatility ETF | $45.42 | +0.07% |
| IAGPF | Insurance Australia Group Ltd | $105.00 | +0.04% |
| VVLU | Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF | $76.70 | -1.17% |
| IHD | Ishares S&P/ASX DIV Opportunities Esg Screened ETF | $16.25 | -0.73% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| KAR | Karoon Energy Ltd | $1.42 | -3.07% |
| ALL | Aristocrat Leisure Ltd | $64.72 | -1.36% |
| 3DA | Amaero Ltd | $0.285 | -1.72% |
| RFG | Retail Food Group Ltd | $1.265 | -1.17% |
| IPH | IPH Ltd | $3.52 | -0.57% |
