ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 17th October
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to fall amid worries of another regional banking crisis in the US. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 17. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 lower, still higher for the week
[2:05 pm] ASX 200 has continued to trend lower for the day, down 0.80% and near intraday lows. Despite Friday's weakness, the market is still on track to finish the week slightly higher, up around 0.38%.
A very cautious session, with a lot of risk/growth-y pockets of the market pulling back sharply. Tech (-1.49%) is seeing high flying names dip, including Life360 (-6.6%), Catapult (-6.0%), Siteminder (-2.4%) and Objective Corp (-2.4%). Defence sector is also aggressively selling off after a massive run, with Droneshield down 7.5% (and down 30% in the last six sessions). Peers like Austal, Electro Optic Systems and Veem also experiencing similar declines. Plenty of critical metal names are also down around 7-12% today.
Overall, the ASX 200 continues to trade relatively sideways (besides the brief all-time high on Thursday). Seeing a lot of bubble chatter, especially given the recent weakness in US regional banks. Will be interesting to see how markets hold up. Gold continues to move vertical (briefly red in today's session, now back up 0.74% to US$4,359) and I'm not keen to know what it's trying to tell us.
Two large cap block trades
[1:25 pm] Block trades have crossed for two interesting large caps:
Dicker Data is trading around breakeven ($10.52), with a 1.5 million share block trade crossing at $10.58
Woolworths is currently up 0.9% ($26.76), with a 1.55 million share block trade crossing at $26.70
Jumbo Interactive rallies for a third straight day
[12:21 pm] Jumbo Interactive is up another 3.5%, now having rallied almost 30% in just three sessions. This follows its acquisition of UK prize draw operator Dream Car Giveaways (DCG) for $109.9 million.
The acquisition valued DCG at a relatively undemanding 6.5x adjusted EBITDA and set to be double-digit EPS accretive in the first 12 months.
Citi highlighted several reasons why the market is so optimistic about the move:
Provides exposure to the fast-growing UK prize draw market where DCG has a strong opportunity to penetrate further (top 5 player with ~ 4% share in a market of 400 operators)
Jumbo can leverage its operational expertise and technology to drive performance
Enhances Jumbo revenue diversification and expands its presence in international markets
Global Lithium rallies on gold asset spin off
[12:18 pm] Global Lithium shares are up 12.0% on a day where most peers are trading lower (PLS -1.0%, LTR -3.9%, CXO -5.9%).
The company has launched an IPO process to spin-out its prospective Marble Bar gold assets into a new entity, MB Gold.
MB Gold will seek to raise a minimum of $6 million at an issue price of 20 cents per share.
Global Lithium will own ~18% of MB Gold, and retain the lithium and battery mineral rights at the project.
ASX 200 on the defensive
[11:05 am] ASX 200 easing from Thursday's record high, down 0.33% in the first hour of trade but already bouncing off session lows of -0.57%.
A rather defensive session, with sectors like Staples, Utilities and Telcos trading slightly higher.
Seeing a massive pullback for all the recent lithium/rare earth runners, uranium also in the midst of a sharp pullback.
ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)
Analyst take on AMP Q3 update
[11:03 am] AMP shares surged 8.5% on Thursday after its Q3 update highlighted better-than-expected inflows and funds under administration. Here's what brokers are thinking:
JPMorgan raised target from $1.70 to $1.80, maintained Neutral. Platform inflows exceeded expectations and AMP Bank outperformed loan growth assumptions, with insurance settlements providing a clean one-off benefit.
UBS raised target from $1.85 to $1.95, maintained Neutral. Platform flows are improving but still trail specialty peers, with caution on premium valuations and capital management flagged as a potential FY26 opportunity.
Macquarie raised target from $1.72 to $1.80, maintained Neutral. Positive platform trends offset by seasonal S&I weakness, with stronger flows justifying modest upgrades while awaiting further banking strategy details.
Gold still running
[11:00 am] Gold is up 0.88% in early trade to US$4,365/oz. It's getting to a point where I ask myself "did it rally 1% yesterday, the day before or today ... or both."
Analysts take on Santos Q3 production
[10:18 am] Santos reported a softer-than-expected Q3 production report on Thursday, with soft production, free cash flow and a guidance downgrade due to commissioning delays at Barossa and flooding in the Cooper Basin. Here's what major brokers are thinking.
Macquarie lowered target from $8.25 to $8.15, maintained Outperform. Barossa has started flowing LNG despite delays, with de-risking catalysts expected from both Barossa and Pikka projects.
UBS lowered target from $8.20 to $8.10, maintained Buy. First Barossa LNG imminent and project now de-risked, with temporary gearing increase expected before strong free cash flow generation.
Goldman Sachs maintained target at $8.35, maintained Buy. Barossa commissioning advancing post-software fix with Pikka on track for Q1, while strong reservoir performance may reduce future drilling requirements.
Sea of red for critical metal stocks
[10:15 am] Rare earths, graphite and other critical metal stocks are broadly lower in early trade, with plenty of names down 5-10% (but still up more than 100% in recent months).
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
HAS | Hastings Technology Metals | -16.05% | $0.68 |
INR | Ioneer | -12.00% | $0.22 |
ILU | Iluka Resources | -11.93% | $7.31 |
ARR | American Rare Earths | -10.69% | $0.59 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | -9.85% | $18.39 |
ARU | Arafura Rare Earths | -6.82% | $0.41 |
SYR | Syrah Resources | -6.74% | $0.42 |
MEI | Meteoric Resources | -6.52% | $0.22 |
NTU | Northern Minerals | -5.36% | $0.05 |
LIN | Lindian Resources | -5.19% | $0.37 |
BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | -4.55% | $5.46 |
RNU | Renascor Resources | -4.30% | $0.09 |
5EA | 5E Advanced Materials | -2.81% | $0.87 |
CHN | Chalice Mining | -2.53% | $2.31 |
VTM | Victory Metals | -1.12% | $1.32 |
BKT | Black Rock Mining | 0.00% | $0.03 |
AR3 | Australian Rare Earths | 0.00% | $0.25 |
TLG | Talga Group | 2.91% | $0.53 |
SGA | Sarytogan Graphite | 3.33% | $0.16 |
Classic rip and raise
[9:40 am] Shares in Australian Strategic Metals halted pending an announcement in relation to a proposed capital raising.
The stock is up 177% since 2 October, despite falling almost 20% in the last two sessions. This follows a massive re-rate for most critical metal and rare earth stocks.
It makes sense to tap the market following such a massive rally. ASM's market cap has jumped from around $130 million to $420 million. A raising worth 10% of the company now yields $42 million versus just $13 million a few weeks ago.
You'll probably see this take place across many developers/explorers that have re-rated in recent weeks.
Australian Strategic Metals daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Australian Finance Group quarterly insights
[9:30 am] Australian Finance Group reported a record first-quarter FY26, with mortgage lodgement volumes soaring 26.5% year-on-year to $30.6 billion. The number of lodgements also hit a new high of 43,799, up 17.7% vs. the prior period.
The update contains some fascinating insights, not just for the company but for the state of the broader industry.
Some of the key highlights include:
“Refinance activity has eased, now at just 17% of all lodgements. This marks a notable decline from 26% a year ago," said CEO David Bailey.
Investor participation has rebounded strongly, now accounting for 36% of all new loans, up 4 percentage points year-on-year
Upgraders are holding steady at 42% of all lodgements. This is a 3% increase from the same period last year, indicating ongoing movement within the owner-occupier market.
First home buyer activity remains stable at 11%, consistent with the same quarter last year
Source: Australian Finance Group (AFG) announcement
Iress confirms engagement with new third parties
[9:24 am] Iress confirmed it is engaging with new third parties, in addition to the parties that have previously expressed interest in acquiring the company.
The Australian previously noted a standoff with Blackstone, with the private equity firm unwilling to move from an expected offer of around $10 per share.
Source: Iress (IRE) announcement
Australian Ethical reports September FUM
[9:23 am] Australian Ethical reported a 2.4% increase in funds under management (FUM) during the first quarter of FY26 to $14.28 billion.
The increase in FUM was driven by $0.13 billion in inflows from retail and wholesale, $0.40 billion in institutional inflows and strong investment performance resulted in $0.28 billion FUM growth.
"While the first quarter of the financial year tends to be lower for flows, we continue to acquire new superannuation members, and have seen an uptick in rollovers in the quarter," said Managing Director John McMurdo.
Source: Australian Ethical (AEF) announcement
Lithium stocks tumble
[9:12 am] Plenty of rare earth and critical metal stocks pulled back sharply overnight, with the Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) down 6.4%.
Lithium Americas shares tumbled 21.7% after facing criticism from several analysts after its almost-250% rally since 23 September.
"We don't view the deal as being incrementally positive enough to warrant the scale of re-rating the stock has seen," says JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson. Rather, the government's stake can be viewed as a "backstop" for the company in an otherwise lackluster lithium market, he wrote.
On Thursday, Lynas suffered a 5.7% pullback while Pilbara Minerals finished the session down 2.5%.
Palladium's comeback
[9:10 am] Palladium prices rallied 4.7% overnight to US$1,611/oz, trading at levels not seen since March 2023.
Prices have now rallied almost 50% since late August but still down around 45% since 2021-22 highs of US$3,000/oz.
Palladium monthly price chart (Source: TradingView)
Gold stocks set to rally
[9:03 am] Soaring gold prices drew a strong response from gold miners overnight, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 3.6%
NYSE-listed Newmont shares rallied 5.0% to US$98.27 (and up 1.25% after hours to US$99.50). This implies a $153.41 open for ASX-listed Newmont shares vs. prior close of $145.77.
Gold crosses US$4,300 with ease
[9:00 am] No pullback, no resistance, just rallying through another key level with ease. Gold rallied 2.8% overnight to US$4,327/oz, with prices now up 7.7% so far this week and up 17.6% in the past month.
Truly unstoppable. It feels like gold keeps adding another US$100/oz every time I wake up.
Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
US government shutdown: No end in sight
[8:56 am] The federal government shutdown has entered its third week with no resolution as a 10th Republican funding bill failed in the Senate, stalling on a partisan divide over Affordable Care Act subsidies that has become the central negotiating obstacle.
The Republican stopgap bill fell short 51-45 overnight, needing 60 votes to pass in a Senate where Republicans hold just 53 seats, highlighting the necessity of bipartisan cooperation that remains elusive.
Regional bank bloodbath
[8:53 am] It smells like the March 2023 regional banking crisis out there, with a long list of names down 5-10% overnight.
Credit market concerns are intensifying as high-profile defaults in auto lending and corporate loans coincide with renewed stress in regional banks, exposing unresolved vulnerabilities from the March 2023 banking crisis that was contained but never truly fixed.
JPMorgan took a $170 million charge-off on subprime auto lender Tricolor's bankruptcy, with CEO Jamie Dimon warning "when you see one cockroach, there's probably more," while private credit faces scrutiny following the First Brands auto bankruptcy as large investors reportedly pull back from riskier corporate debt.
Zions Bancorporation crashed 13% after disclosing a $60 million provision and $50 million charge-off citing borrower misrepresentations, while Western Alliance fell 12% over collateral loan issues, signaling credit quality problems are spreading across lending categories.
Regional banks remain fundamentally fragile with balance sheets squeezed by rising deposit costs, slowing loan demand, underwater securities portfolios from the zero-rate era, and heavy commercial real estate exposure, particularly as emergency Fed facilities like BTFP have expired.
Retail investors buy the dip
[8:46 am] Retail investors are driving an aggressive buy-the-dip response following the S&P 500's largest single-day drop since April last week, maintaining a pattern that has dominated market flows for months.
Retail buyers have been net buys for 7 consecutive weeks and in 23 of the last 27 weeks, according to Citadel. Retail option demand has sustained for 24 straight weeks, matching Citadel's record, underscoring the persistence of this bullish positioning even through volatility.
JPMorgan data shows retail investors have already purchased US$6.5 billion worth of stocks this week, well-above the 12-month weekly average of $5.9 billion.
TSMC boosts AI sentiment
[8:40 am] TSMC delivered a strong Q3 beat and raised its 2025 outlook, driven by surging AI demand that's exceeding the company's own aggressive forecasts from just months ago.
Some of the key takeaways from the quarterly include:
Gross margin hit 59.5% in Q3, well above the 57.5% consensus, with management crediting cost improvements and higher capacity utilisation that offset foreign exchange headwinds.
2025 revenue growth guidance upgraded to 35% from 30%, while capex guidance narrowed to $40-42 billion (up from $38-42 billion range).
Management's conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening, noting demand is outpacing expectations from three months ago and suggesting the mid-40s% CAGR for AI through 2029 could be conservative.
China restrictions are not viewed as a material risk to the bullish AI outlook, indicating TSMC sees sufficient demand drivers outside affected markets.
Good morning!
[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are down 31 pts (-0.34%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.
The overnight session in a nutshell:
Major US benchmarks faded early gains to finish lower, but off worst levels
Markets concerned about potential cracks in riskier pockets of the credit market, including bankruptcy filing from subprime auto lender Tricolour, First Brands bankruptcy, Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance shares dip on bad loans
AI sector continues to find more momentum off the back of a bumper Q3 result from TSMC and full-year guidance upgrade, Oracle shares also rallied on gross margin commentary
US senate bill fails for the 10th time, no end in sight for shutdown
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
