Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides on another WTC corporate governance shock, critical minerals stock slump continues

The ASX 200 fell as US benchmark bond yields tipped 22-year highs overnight, dragging real estate, banks, and technology stocks sharply lower — while healthcare extended its historic two-day run, energy held firm on elevated crude, and investors in WiseTech Global endured a third corporate governance shock that sent the stock down nearly 9%.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 16.2 points lower at 9,053.8, 0.38% from its session low and 0.18% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a disappointing 113 to 165.

Whatever President Trump hoped to achieve from his activities in the Middle East, it's unlikely he foresaw this outcome: US 30-year bond yields tipped 22-year highs overnight.

FYI, US mortgage rates are often pegged to the 30-year bond yield because that bond's duration is roughly similar to the average American's mortgage duration. Make of that what you will...

US 30-Year T-Bond Yield chart

Health Care (XHJ) (+2.6%) extended its historic two-day surge into a third consecutive positive session — a remarkable statement of market conviction in a sector that had been largely written off through much of FY26. Yesterday's simultaneous results beats from CSL, Pro Medicus, and Cochlear appear to have fundamentally reset the investment thesis for the sector, with fund managers now actively adding rather than trimming.

Today, Ebos Group (EBO) (+8.3%) added its own result-driven catalyst, posting a 9% rise in full-year underlying net profit to $423.8 million as its healthcare logistics and animal care divisions both outperformed. Elsewhere in the sector, CSL (CSL) (+5.5%) extended yesterday's 17.3% surge — that is now a two-day gain of more than 23% for Australia's most closely watched healthcare stock. Sonic Healthcare (SHL) (+2.3%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (+1.1%) both continued higher.

S&P-ASX 200 Health Care Sector Index chart

Energy (XEJ) (+0.8%) remained well-supported as ICE Brent crude futures gained 0.8% to US$91.69/bbl, holding above US$90 for a third consecutive session amid ongoing delay to the Oman-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal and a US threat to expand sanctions on Iranian oil buyers. Santos (STO) (+2.5%) was the standout oil and gas name, with Viva Energy (VEA) (+1.4%), Woodside Energy (WDS) (+1.2%), and Karoon Energy (KAR) (+0.8%) all advancing.

S&P-ASX 200 Energy Sector Index chart

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.3%) benefited from defensive flows as investors sought non-cyclical earnings in a session defined by bond yield anxiety. Agricultural names were the outperformers — GrainCorp (GNC) (+2.7%) and Select Harvests (SHV) (+1.6%) led, while the supermarket majors provided modest support with Woolworths (WOW) (+0.6%) and Coles (COL) (+0.6%) both edging higher.

A super defensive session!

Information Technology (XIJ) (-3.1%) was the session's most consequential loser in index terms, and the primary reason was WiseTech Global (WTC) (-8.7%) suffering its third major corporate governance setback since late June. New allegations against executive chairman Richard White's conduct emerged in local media, extending what has become a multi-month soap opera that has now wiped more than 25% from the stock in aggregate.

The broader sector was also weighed by Life360 (360) (-6.9%) — still unwinding from last week's poorly received quarterly — NextDC (NXT) (-5.6%), and Iress (IRE) (-5.6%), all of which fell as US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hitting a 22-year high overnight compressed valuations for long-duration, high-P/E growth stocks with mechanical precision.

Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.1%) bore the full weight of the bond yield surge — when risk-free rates reach 22-year highs, the stable income streams of property trusts lose relative appeal by an equivalent and equally mechanical amount. Goodman Group (GMG) (-4.1%) was the heaviest drag by index weight, with GPT Group (GPT) (-2.1%), Charter Hall (CHC) (-1.6%), and Lendlease (LLC) (-1.4%) all lower.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.6%) extended their losing streak to eight out of nine sessions. Higher market benchmark yields affect the banks in two simultaneous and reinforcing ways — they raise the cost of new mortgage borrowing, further deterring demand in a market where applications are already down 15–20%, and they signal an environment of persistent inflationary pressure that makes the RBA's next move more likely to be a hike than a cut.

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-1.2%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.7%), and Westpac (WBC) (-0.6%) all declined. Judo Capital (JDO) (-5.1%) fell — appearing to give back a portion of yesterday's 16.9% post-result surge without a confirmed new catalyst.

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index chart

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.6%) was a market already on the back foot from JB Hi-Fi's results assessment of the Australian consumer, and today it found a fresh stock-specific reason to sell. Temple & Webster (TPW) (-17.8%) collapsed after the online furniture and homewares retailer reported a swing to a full-year net loss, with revenue growth slowing sharply as the rate-driven housing market correction reduced consumer appetite for big-ticket home spending. Lovisa (LOV) (-4.2%) and Breville Group (BRG) (-4.2%) also fell.

Materials (XMJ) (-0.1%) finished marginally lower as a strong session for iron ore names offset broad-based weakness in base metals. COMEX copper fell 1.9% overnight and another 0.8% in Asian trade to US$6.456/lb.

Champion Iron (CIA) (+4.5%), Fortescue (FMG) (+2.1%), and Deterra Royalties (DRR) (+2.1%) were all firmly higher, iron ore stocks finding buyers despite SGX iron ore futures holding near recent levels. On the other side, Capstone Copper (CSC) (-1.8%), South32 (S32) (-1.2%), and Alcoa (AAI) (-2.0%) — the latter facing the double headwind of a softer aluminium price and elevated energy input costs — all retreated.

In commodities moves, GFEX lithium carbonate futures in China fell 3.0% to CNY 150,660/t, reversing recent gains and sending the sector's recovery into a renewed wobble. Liontown Resources (LTR) (-4.6%), Wildcat Resources (WC8) (-3.7%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-3.4%), Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) (-2.2%), and Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-2.0%) all fell.

Rare earths and critical minerals stocks were also sharply lower — IperionX (IPX) (-7.9%), Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) (-6.8%), Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) (-5.8%), Iluka Resources (ILU) (-2.3%), and Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-1.3%) all declined. COMEX gold futures fell 0.4% to US$4,402.60/oz and COMEX silver futures dropped 1.4% to US$63.16/oz — precious metals giving back recent gains alongside the broader commodity complex.

Analysis

26789-27191 is looking like a tough nut to crack. 🥜🔨

That’s one appropriate metaphor for the latent supply that is so clearly manifesting itself in that zone via black-bodied supply side candles. Tuesday’s candle is accompanied by a large gap-lower – indicating a marked and sudden shift in the demand-supply environment:

Demand vacuum (look at the volume, look at the fracture in price – not a single investor saw reason to bid in the price range between 26422-26626!).

Motivated supply (look at the size of the gap, the colour of the candle, and the close at the very low of the session – ding, ding, ding, ding – the only thing that stopped the prevailing excess supply from causing greater damage was the closing bell! 🔔).

Indeed, we have some issues here… Because another potentially appropriate metaphor comes to mind: “Is 26789-27191 a bridge too far for the Comp bull market?” 🤔

Perhaps. Tuesday’s candle is one that’s all-too consistent with how major tops begin. But, to call a major top based on one candle / one peak – even one in a supply zone so prominent – is far too rash for a trend follower like me!

The supply side certainly had control of Tuesday’s candle. The evidence of that is too strong to refute.

But do they have control of the short term trend? Or the long term trend? 🤷

No, I don’t think so either, certainly not the latter.

But there is a question mark over the former – and we’ll get a far better reader of the degree of control that the supply side has over the short term trend if / when we interreact with the short term uptrend ribbon.

Likely that will occur within tonight’s candle. Ideally, it’s a white-bodied affair, and or one with a long downward pointing shadow. This would tell us that:

The demand side remains prepared to BTD. ✅

The current lack of volume hints at the lack of supply side engagement. A strong demand side candle on elevated volume would suggest a return of the demand side to the fray and that they have likely removed from the system the doubters within 26789-27191. ✅

NUTE and FOHO have transformed back into FOMO and HOFU that are customary for a bull market. ✅

Or…

We’ll crash right through with another strong supply side showing! 😱

Yep, then I’ll be doubting that short term uptrend… and likely reducing risk… but still respectful of that great, big dark green caterpillar… slowly and determinedly crawling bottom-left-top-right up the Comp’s chart! 🐛

View

I am 2/3RP on US stocks. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

27191 is the key point of supply vs the short term trend ribbon (presently 26035-26177) is the key zone of demand.

Analysis

Nice little pop at the end there (in the closing juicing session — but we'll take it! 🧃).

The short term trend ribbon appears to be doing its job (not quite as 'unemployed' as I suggested in today's ChartWatch LIVE Webinar).

You can watch the recording of that session for full analysis on the OTP (link below 👇).

View

I am FRP on Aussie stocks — waiting for the verdict at the short term trend ribbon before retreating, tail between my legs back to 2/3RP. (My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in ASX stocks is now 100%).

Key Levels

9297 is the key point of supply to contend with, while demand the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8998-9068).

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

***CHARTWATCH LIVE WEBINARS — NEW VIDEO DROPPED!!! 📺🍿***

ASX biggest blue chip shares analysed by an expert: CSL, COH, BHP, WDS, STO, Copper, Lithium & more

TODAY

• 11:30 AUS July Wage Price Index (WPI)

  • Result: +0.8% q/q as forecast and unchanged from June.

  • Reader: x4 = 3.2% p.a. which likely won't trouble the RBA too much.

LATER THIS WEEK

Thursday

• 04:00 USA August FOMC Meeting Minutes

• 11:30 AUS July Employment Data

• 22:30 USA Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday

• 00:00 USA Conference Board Leading Index

• 09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

• 23:45 USA Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)