Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides as CSL, WTC plunge, LYC, MIN, PLS suffer on critical minerals sell-off

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 43.1 points lower, down 0.48%.

Closer US-China trade ties aren’t necessarily good news for Aussie resources stocks. For, if the USA and China are closer, then at some level it means that Australia and China, and Australia and the USA, are a little further away… LYC, MIN, PLS each suffered in a broad critical minerals sell-off, but few in the Resources and Energy sectors were spared.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 43.1 points lower at 9,012.5, 0.48% from its session high and just 0.08% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 113 to 165.

Fund flows: If they're closer... where does that leave us!? 🤔

Today we saw that a rising tide in US stocks doesn’t necessarily lift all ships. A few banks, a few resources, Telstra, Wesfarmers, Woolies and CSL (CSL) (-15.9%). Um, scratch that last one… Yep, compared to the shock and awe that’s US stocks at the moment… well, we’re chopped liver. ☹️

Particularly when you consider that closer US-China trade ties aren’t necessarily good news for local Resources (XJR) (-2.1%) stocks, either. For, if the USA and China are closer, then at some level it means that Australia and China, and Australia and the USA, are a little further away…

So, we saw one of those “old playbook” days from the first half of the year where major resources and Energy (XEJ) (-1.7%) stocks were sold off, and the cash realised from these sales was simply shifted across the Old Tin Pot into Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.7%) and Financials (XFJ) (+1.3%).

Zero sum game 🤦.

Hey – it’s not like our poor old fund managers could buy Health Care (XHJ) (-7.4%) – what with CSL’s dip-keeps-dipping plunge, nor Information Technology (XIJ) (-3.2%) – which suffered its own major constituent disaster as Wisetech Global (WTC) (-15.9%) also tanked.

News broke today that ASIC and the AFP are investigating WTC for possible issues relating to trading in the company's shares by former CEO Richard White and other employees late last year and early this year.

While each company's decline was for a very different reason, each was a “shock only if you didn’t know how to read a chart”! (CSL: 11 x Feature Downtrend = Highest Conviction in ChartWatch ASX Scans since 19-Aug candle close @ $225.50 | WTC: 5 x Feature Downtrend since 3-Sep candle close @ $94.80).

Wisetech Global (WTC) – today's share price move was a shock only if you didn’t know how to read a chart! (click here for full size image)

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-4.6%) sell off continued as gold and silver’s charts increasingly resemble a dead cat bounce.

In keeping with anything that was hot before last week is getting absolutely smashed this week, critical minerals stocks (Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-13.9%)), lithium stocks (Mineral Resources (MIN) (-6.2%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-6.1%), and IGO (IGO) (-5.3%)), and base metals stocks (Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-3.6%) and South32 (S32) (-2.5%)) were various versions of belted today – even as base metals and lithium prices were generally higher. (Likely ironically, on that US-China trade deal!).

In summary, unless you were long banks and short CSL and WiseTech, it was probably a very miserable day – and in the shadow of last week's new all-time high. It just doesn't seem fair... (Not fair? Cue Nollsey! 🎤)

Stock Specific: CSL, the dip that keeps dipping

I won't harp on about this, because if you own this one, the last thing you want to hear is a smarmy trend follower pointing out what you already knew (i.e., the bleeding great big long term downtrend = the dark pink caterpillar crawling from the top left to the bottom right of the chart). But just check the pattern in the chart below around the transition from uptrend to downtrend back in Sep-November last year.

CSL is the dip that keeps dipping... (click here for full size image)

And compare it to WTC's recent price action. The similarities are obvious – even if the companies are completely different. That's because demand and supply react in the same way to a deteriorating fundamental picture.

No technical model is perfect – and mine is far from thus (taking a beating today on resources!), but these "slow motion car crashes" are probably the easiest for investors to avoid. Regardless of what some experts might say about "value" when "quality is on sale", the broader market typically knows best – and fight the market at your own peril 🤕!

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

A disappointing day. Far from ideal – supply-side candle (i.e., black-bodied, close on the low of the session). Demand either didn't want to engage today, or wasn't able to (out of funds?) 🤔

I doubt it's a case of the last point, although it does feel that Aussie stocks are being overlooked among global fundies just at the moment. Anyways, as far as the technicals are concerned – despite today's lack of pep – very little has changed:

• Short and long term trend ribbons = ⬆️/⬆️

• Price action more broadly = rising peaks and rising troughs 📈

• Candles more broadly = predominantly demand-side in nature ⬜

"More broadly". Because "more short term", those last two bullet points are beginning to look a little average!

View: No change in my prevailing view, trends, price action, and candles remain sufficiently representative of demand-side-control of the XJO's price = FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8963 is the closest key point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price. 8843 is also a key level that the price ideally should not cross. Ultimately though, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.

Where's the Nasdaq and Commodities Technical Analysis? 🤔

It's been moved to a dedicated series: ChartWatch Markets! 📈📈📈

In today's edition: Despite every other article you read telling you how expensive stocks are… they seem to keep going up! Well, perhaps you’re not reading the right articles! Elsewhere, base metals are also on the rise, generally, because while the copper price has made a new all-time high, and aluminium, tin and zinc are probing 3-year highs. Notably though, nickel and lead remain in the doldrums...

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS September Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Headline: +1.1% q/q and +3.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.7% and +3.0% p.a. in the June quarter

  • Trimmed Mean: +0.8% q/q forecast and +0.6% q/q in June quarter

Thursday

• 05:00 USA Federal Reserve FOMC meeting & Press Conference

  • Fed Funds Rate: -0.25% to +4.00% forecast

Friday

• 00:00 USA September Core PCE Price Index

  • Personal Income: +0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in August

  • Personal Spending: +0.4% m/m vs +0.6% in August

• 12:30 CHN October Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 forecast vs 49.8 om September

  • Non-Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 forecast vs 50.0 in September

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.1% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% Ecograf (EGR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) - Response to ASX Price Query and Becoming a substantial holder (Citi 5%).

• +7.1% Acusensus (ACE) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.0% Lindian Resources (LIN) - No news since 27-Oct Kangankunde Remains Unaffected By Malawi Export Order, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.0% Appen (APX) - No news 🤔.

• +7.0% Elsight (ELS) - Continued positive response to 27-Oct Quarterly Activity Report and Appendix 4C, general strength across the broader Defence sector today.

• +6.3% Eagers Automotive (APE) - Continued positive response to 27-Oct Analyst & Investor Event Material, general strength across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today.

• +5.9% AUB Group (AUB) - Unsolicited Non-Binding Indicative Proposal to acquire AUB and Response to ASX Price Query.

• +4.7% Steadfast Group (SDF) - No news, (positive response to AUB news).

• +4.2% Focus Minerals (FML) - Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.1% Polynovo (PNV) - AGM - Chair and CEO address.

Trading lower

• -28.9% Dateline Resources (DTR) - No news since 27-Oct Dateline Advances BFS, Prepares to Test Gold & REE Targets, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -22.9% Horizon Minerals (HRZ) - Letter to Shareholders AGM 2025 and Consolidation/Split, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -16.1% VHM (VHM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -15.9% Wisetech Global (WTC) - WiseTech Global Ltd Update, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -15.9% CSL (CSL) - CSL 2025 AGM Chair and CEO Speech and Presentation, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -15.3% Astron (ATR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -14.9% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) - New Constitution.

• -13.9% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -13.8% Hastings Technology Metals (HAS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -13.6% James Bay Minerals (JBY) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -13.3% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -12.8% Liontown Resources (LTR) - September 2025 Quarter Presentation.

• -12.2% Resolute Mining (RSG) - September 2025 Quarterly Presentation, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

Broker Moves

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.00 from $8.10

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.28

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.34

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $0.28

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.30

Alcidion Group (ALC)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.10

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $75.00 from $69.00

BCI Minerals (BCI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $12.20

CSL (CSL)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $225.00 from $230.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $280.00

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.60 from $15.55

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $11.50 from $12.10

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.30

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $6.90 from $5.75

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.10

Mader Group (MAD)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.00

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Retained at hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $6.40

• Retained at speculative buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $6.16

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.00

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $6.30 from $5.90

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $5.05 from $4.85

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $17.20

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $11.80 from $11.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $14.50 from $14.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $16.25 from $16.00

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.95

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.95

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.40

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.65 from $2.75

Scans