ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 28th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, October 28. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 lower, miners hit two-week low

[2:30 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.42%, trading around session lows.

• S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Index down 7.1%, largely driven by CSL's 14.8% decline (off lows but still bouncing around)

• S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index down 2.6%, largely reflecting Wisetech's 14.2% selloff (off lows of -17.5%)

• The bigger detractor is the resource sector, with the Materials Index down 2.2% amid a relatively broad pullback for most sub-sectors

  • Iron ore majors all down around 0.5%

  • All Ords Gold Index down 5.0%

  • Rare earth stocks smashed, Lynas and Iluka Resources down 12.8% and 6.0% respectively

  • Copper stocks broadly lower, Sandfire and Capstone Copper down 3.8% and 3.4% respectively

• Not sure why Wesfarmers is up 2.4%, briefly up as much as 3.3% to a fresh all-time high of $94.70

• S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index at all-time highs, up 1.5%. Big Four Banks 1-2% higher, also seeing gains from insurers and regional banks. CBA still ~8% off its 25-Jun record

Overall, a little dicey beneath the hood, though the overall picture still tilts positive. We're seeing the market rotate into more defensive pockets of the market. While CSL and WiseTech's weak updates disappointed, they shouldn't overshadow the broader strength in their respective sectors. That said, Healthcare continues to struggle with company-specific headwinds across multiple names (e.g. Ebos, Sonic Healthcare, and Ramsay among them). A fair bit of M&A activity today towards the larger end of town, with AUB Group and potentially Domino's. A slight pullback as the market heads into the most seasonally bullish period of the year. With big tech earnings on deck this week, it'll be interesting to see where thing settle.

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Tasmea slips on block trade

[1:31 pm] Tasmea opened at $5.10 on Tuesday following a record close yesterday. The stock is currently down 2.5% ($5.00) after a 1.2 million share block trade crossed at $5.00 earlier this morning.

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Heavy day for critical metals

[1:22 pm] Rare earths, copper, uranium, lithium and critical metal stocks are taking a beating today. The main catalyst was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments about how China will defer its rare earth export controls for a year amid a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions.

Lynas is currently down 12.0%, despite opening only 6.5% lower. It's struggled to bounce and hovering intraday lows. This is the case for most other rare earth and critical metal stocks.

Lithium stocks are catching a bid amid the selloff, with Pilbara Minerals down as much as 7.9% in early trade, now down 4.8%. The same goes for gold, with most names down around 3-4%, well off early lows.

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ASX 200 lower on CSL, Wisetech wipeout

[12:25 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.37%, not far from session lows of -0.52%. CSL (-14.4%) and Wisetech (-15.6%) have lost a collective ~$20 billion in market cap (on a market-cap weighted basis, the ASX 200 would be up around ~0.3% had these two not sold off).

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Domino's halts on takeover speculation

[12:12 pm] Shares in Domino's Pizza entered a trading halt at 11:22 am. An AFR article noted informal talks by Bain Capital to acquire all or part of the company, in a deal potentially worth up to $4 billion. The stock rallied as much as 22.9% on the news and up 17.3% prior to the halt.

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Is this the end of the critical metal trade?

[12:10 pm] Easing US-China trade tensions also taking the life out of high-flying rare earth and other strategic metal stocks. A large cap name like Lynas opened 6.9% lower, now down 12.0%. The stock is still up 67% since the initial MP/US Department of Defence deal on 11 July, but down 26% since its 14 October record high.

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Sea of red for gold miners

[11:11 am] Tough day for gold miners, after prices dipped 3.1% overnight to US$3,987/oz.

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Ramelius conference call takeaways

[11:08 am] Ramelius just hosted a conference call regarding its five-year outlook, with key takeaways including:

• FY26 production guidance of 185,000-205,000 oz at $1,800/oz AISC, with Mt Magnet plant expansion starting H2 FY26 (operational September 2027)

• Rebecca/Roe first production delayed to December 2027, but projected to generate $200m annual free cash flow from FY32-FY36 at $4,500/oz gold

• Mt Magnet hub targeting 360,000 oz annual output at $1,585/oz by FY35, positioning as Australia's fifth largest gold hub

• Ore reserves increased to 4.3M ounces, with Mt Magnet reserves up 212% and grade up 29% versus FY24. Exploration budget raised to $100m for 2025

• Capital allocation framework including potential share buybacks to be released 1H26, with Edna May expansion plans early 2026

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:38 am] AUB shares rally on takeover talks, while retailers and banks are posting some solid gains across the board. Meanwhile Wisetech smashed on insider trading allegations, CSL hits a fresh six year low on FY26-28 earnings downgrade and gold miners in a sea of red as gold prices continue to unwind.

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CSL obliteration continues

[10:04 am] CSL opened 10.8% lower this morning, currently down 13.0% to $183.76. If it closes around these levels, the stock would have recorded its two worst sessions on record (since 1994) in the span of just ~2 months.

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AUB confirms receipt of non-binding takeover offer

[9:54 am] AUB confirmed it has received an unsolicited, confidential and non-binding indicative proposal from an EQT affiliate (Arbutus) at $45.00 per share (25% premium to last close).

The AUB Board have determined it would be in the best interest of shareholders to enter into a confidentiality and exclusivity agreement with EQT to further progress the proposal.

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

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Gold continues to dip

[9:51 am] Gold prices dipped another 3.1% overnight, now down 8.5% since its record close on 20-Oct. This drove the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 3.9% lower overnight, which managed to bounce off session lows of -6.4%.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Interestingly, gold has always fallen short of a 10 week win streak. The forward-looking performance after such a win streak appears overwhelmingly bearish, according to SubuTrade.

Source: SubuTrade

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CSL to delay Sequirus demerger

[9:46 am] CSL also noted at its AGM this morning plans to delay its Sequirus merger, which was previously said to take place in FY26.

The demerger will now occur when market conditions support maximising shareholder value. Since the announcement of the demerger, US influenza vaccination rates have declined at a greater-than-expected rate.

Company page: CSL (CSL)

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CSL cuts FY26 NPATA guidance

[9:45 am] Probably one to watch this morning. CSL cut its FY26 NPATA growth guidance to 4-7% vs. prior 7-10% (provided at its FY25 result). Revenue guidance also cut to 2-3% vs. prior 4.5%.

The company also said uncertainty in US vaccination rates reduces group NPATA growth expectation to high single digits in FY27-28. For perspective, Macquarie (Aug-25) forecast FY27 NPATA growth of 10.8%.

Not a good look for a stock that's recently bottomed around the $200 level. Let's see how it manages the selling pressure today.

Company page: CSL (CSL)

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DUG Technology: Q1 business update

[9:36 am] DUG Technology provided an earnings update for the September quarter, including:

• Revenue up 19% to US$16.7 million

• EBITDA up 65% to $4.2 million

• Operating cash inflow of $0.4 million

• Total cash of US$12.5 million at 30 September, with net debt of US$5.7 million

• Services order book up 46% to US$51.9 million at 30 September

“The strength of our Services pipeline, and the signing of a record SaaS and HPCaaS contract all point to the momentum that continues to build in our business. Delivering first revenue in Brazil and increasing traction in the Middle East demonstrate the success of our international expansion strategy and positions us well for continued growth into the future," said Managing Director Matthew Lamont.

Company page: DUG Technology (DUG)

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Wisetech responds to ASIC investigation

[9:33 am] Wisetech says ASIC and the Australian Federal Police attended the company's Sydney office on Monday.

They executed a search warrant requiring the production of documents regarding alleged trading in WiseTech shares by Richard White and three WiseTech employees during the period from late 2024 to early 2025.

So far, there have been no charges laid against any person or allegations against the company itself.

Company page: Wisetech (WTC)

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Flight Centre sells Asia-based hotel management business

[9:30 am] Flight Centre is selling its Asia-based hotel management to South Korean hospitality and resort operator, Sono International.

The business consists of Cross (hotels, resorts and hospitality management) Indonesia and ~17 hotels across Thailand and Indonesia.

The acquisition terms are currently confidential and not material to Flight Centre.

Company page: Flight Centre (FLT)

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Resolute Mining: Q3 production report

[9:22 am] Resolute provided a relatively weak September quarter report and full-year guidance, including:

• Q3 production of 59.9koz vs. 55.9koz ests (7.2% beat)

• Q3 AISC of A$2,205/oz vs. A$1,848/oz ests (19.3% miss)

• FY production guidance narrowed to 275-285koz from prior 275-300koz (2.6% cut at the midpoint)

• FY AISC up to A$1,750-1,805/oz vs. prior A$1,650-1,750/oz (5.9% higher at the midpoint)

Company page: Resolute Mining (RSG)

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Coronado secures financial lifeline

[9:15 am] Coronado Global secured a key liquidity lifeline from Stanwell Corporation through a non-binding transaction that extends their coal supply agreement and replaces existing debt. The key transaction details include:

• US$265m, 5-year facility at 9-12% interest replaces existing Oaktree loan, with Stanwell taking priority security over assets

• Coal supply agreement extended from 2037 to 2043, with Stanwell able to nominate 1.2-2.24m tonnes annually

• Stanwell prepays for future coal when Coronado's cash drops below US$250m, repaid via free coal deliveries when cash exceeds US$300m

• Dividend restrictions require US$300m liquidity maintenance and equal/higher prepayment reductions, forcing balance sheet deleveraging

Still a tough outcome given unsustainable Queensland coal taxes, weak coal prices and the onerous supply agreement.

Company page: Coronado Global (CRN)

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Westgold Resources: Q1 production report

[9:08 am] Westgold reported its September quarter production report, key numbers include:

• Gold production of 83.9koz vs. 83.0koz ests (1.1% beat)

• AISC of A$2,861 vs. A$2,663 ests (7.4% miss)

• Gold sales of 94.9koz vs. 85.3koz ests (11% beat)

• Average gold sale price of A$5,296 vs. $5,162 (2.6% beat)

Westgold also provided a three-year outlook, featuring:

• FY26 guidance: 345-385koz at AISC of A$2,600-$2,900/oz

• FY27 outlook: ~420koz at AISC of A$2,456/oz

• FY28 outlook: ~470koz at AISC of ~A$2,499/oz

Company page: Westgold Resources (WGX)

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Ramelius provides FY26 and 5-year outlook

[9:05 am] A very mixed set of numbers from Ramelius' five-year outlook (vs. Macquarie forecasts).

• FY26: 185-205koz at AISC of $1,700-1,900 vs. 203.7koz at $1,844/oz

• FY27: 200-220Koz at $1,855/oz vs. 206.6koz at $1,866/oz

• FY28: 280-310Koz at $1,815/oz vs. 398.2koz at $2,520/oz

• FY29: 385-425Koz at $2,250/oz vs. 455.7koz at $2,616/oz

• FY30: 500-550Koz at $1,960/oz vs. 500.2koz at $2,118/oz

At a glance, FY26 is a 4.3% and 2.4% miss for production and AISC, respectively. FY28-29 mark a wide production miss at 25% and 11% respectively. Although costs are substantially lower across all years, especially in FY28-29 at 28% and 14% respectively, below Macquarie forecasts. A bit all over the place vs. their forecasts, not sure what to make of this.

Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

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Seasonal tailwinds incoming!

[8:55 am] Seasonal tailwinds are emerging as a bullish catalyst heading into year-end. Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner highlighted that October 26th and 27th historically mark the Q4 lows for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, with late-October dips typically setting up strong year-end rallies. He also noted that strong years entering Q4 tend to see powerful moves higher into December.

According to Stock Trader's Almanac data since 1950, November ranks as the best month for both the S&P 500 and Dow, and second-best for the Nasdaq (since 1971):

• S&P 500: up nearly 70% of the time, average gain of 1.9%

• Dow: up nearly 70% of the time, average gain of 1.9%

• Nasdaq: up just over 72% of the time, average gain of 2.1%

The November-January period represents the strongest three-month span of the year, with historical average gains of 4.4% for both the Dow and S&P 500, and 6.2% for the Nasdaq.

S&P 500 Index seasonality (Source: EquityClock)

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A spike in layoff headlines

[8:52 am] The labour market softening theme intensified last week with major job cut announcements across multiple sectors, though developments appeared more company-specific than broad macro weakness. Key cuts include:

• Target: 1,800 corporate roles (part of turnaround plan)

• Applied Materials and Rivian: ~4% workforce reductions each

• Molson Coors: ~9% of North American salaried staff by year-end

• Meta: 600 AI jobs

• Charter: ~1% of workforce

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US and China reach preliminary consensus on key trade topics

[8:51 am] US and Chinese trade negotiators reached preliminary consensus on major sticking points after two days of talks in Malaysia, setting up Trump and Xi to finalise a deal at their Thursday meeting in South Korea.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump's threatened 100% tariffs are "effectively off the table," and China will defer its rare earth export controls for a year while making "substantial" soybean purchases. The US will maintain its export controls on China.

The framework addresses several key areas:

• Rare earth restrictions (China's year-long delay removes immediate supply threat)

• Fentanyl cooperation (suggesting possible reduction of the 20% US tariff on China)

• Shipping levies (resolving port service fees both countries imposed)

• Agricultural trade (China's soybean purchases are crucial for Trump's rural base after Beijing effectively banned American soybeans in March with retaliatory tariffs on $13 billion worth of annual purchases)

Source: Bloomberg

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Rare earth and critical metal stocks dip on US-China trade de-escalation

[8:45 am] US rare earth and critical metal stocks tumbled overnight after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated China would likely delay export controls on critical minerals as part of a trade deal. Notable decliners include:

• MP Materials -7.4%

• USA Rare Earth -8.3%

• Lithium Americas -10.5%

• Critical Metals Corp -13.7%

• Trilogy Metals -16.6%

The selloff reflects reduced urgency for domestic rare earth production if Chinese supply remains accessible. Bessent's comments on NBC's "Meet The Press" suggested Washington and Beijing would reach a deal to avoid Trump's threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, with China postponing strict rare earth export controls.

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Qualcomm announces new AI accelerator chips

[8:43 am] Qualcomm is entering the data center AI chip market with two new accelerators: the AI200 (launching 2026) and AI250 (2027). This represents a major strategic shift from its traditional mobile and wireless focus, putting it in direct competition with Nvidia, which currently controls over 90% of the AI chip market.

Qualcomm is targeting the inference side (running AI models) rather than training, positioning itself as a cost-effective alternative for cloud providers.

The stock finished the session 11.0% higher, down from session highs of 21.7%.

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AFR article drives AUB sharply higher

[8:38 am] An article published at 2:56 pm on Monday drove AUB shares 8.0% higher by 3:02 pm before an eventual trading halt at 3:19 pm.

The article noted potential takeover interest from EQT, though unclear whether the talks have moved forward or if EQT has submitted an informal takeover proposal.

Source: AFR

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 39pts (-0.43%) as of 8:30 am AEDT. The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher, all rising to fresh all-time highs

• S&P 500 up 1.23% but its Equal-weight counterpart up just 0.44%, suggesting most gains came from large tech stocks

• US-China trade de-escalation over the weekend driving markets higher, alongside seasonality tailwinds

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.