Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides as big bank slump continues, CBA confirms post-Budget mortgage plunge

The ASX 200 fell for the third time in four sessions as the RBA's hawkish hold on Tuesday filtered through to rate-sensitive and consumer-facing sectors. CBA's results showed that WBC's previously reported plunge in mortgage applications following May's Federal Budget wasn't an industry fluke. Gold, technology and healthcare provided a partial offset.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 41.2 points lower at 9,209.4, 0.45% from its session high and 0.26% from its low. A disappointing day on the market breadth today, as advancers lagged decliners by 92 to 195 in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO).

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+0.3%) extended its remarkable run to nine sessions of positive closes, though at a notably more modest pace — COMEX gold futures gained 0.35% to US$4,465.50/oz and COMEX silver futures added 1.6% to US$65.95/oz, with precious metals hovering near two-month highs but finding fewer marginal buyers at current levels.

St Barbara (SBM) (+5.9%), Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) (+2.3%), Predictive Discovery (PDI) (+1.9%), and Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+1.6%) were the standout movers within an otherwise consolidating sector.

Materials (XMJ) (-0.2%) was essentially flat despite LME copper, aluminium, and zinc all gaining around 1% overnight — suggesting a touch of buyer fatigue after the sector's strong recent run. COMEX copper futures gained a modest 0.32% to US$6.656/lb in Asian trade, but iron ore was the weak sub-theme — SGX iron ore futures fell 0.4% to US$95.50/t, keeping BHP (BHP) (-0.8%), Fortescue (FMG) (-0.3%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-0.2%) all slightly lower.

Elsewhere in the sector, James Hardie Industries (JHX) (+1.6%), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+1.3%), and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+1.2%) were positive. South32 (S32) (-3.5%) was the session's notable loser without an obvious specific catalyst...

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX chart

Lithium stocks extended their strong recent run as GFEX lithium carbonate futures gained 2.6% to CNY 149,600/t — their seventh consecutive session of positive closes. Core Lithium (CXO) (+5.9%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (+5.5%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+4.3%), IGO (IGO) (+3.5%), and Mineral Resources (MIN) (+2.1%) were all higher in what continues to look like a sustained recovery of investor sentiment toward the sector rather than a simple commodity price bounce.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.2%) eked out a marginal gain led by two distinct company-specific catalysts. Bravura Solutions (BVS) (+12.5%) surged after posting a nearly 50% surge in full-year profits, while Codan (CDA) (+9.3%) also advanced strongly. Weebit Nano (WBT) (+5.9%) and Megaport (MP1) (+3.7%) also firmed.

ASX 200 Healthcare Sector Index (XHJ) intraday chart

Health Care (XHJ) (-0.1%) was, technically, a slight loser — but in a session where nine of eleven sectors fell, finishing within rounding distance of flat earned it the status of a relative outperformer. Conservative fund managers seeking to reduce bank exposure without abandoning blue-chip index weight have had healthcare in their sights for weeks now, and the sector's partial recovery from what was at one point a 47% rolling twelve-month trough continues to attract rotational flows. Cochlear (COH) (+1.1%), 4DMedical (4DX) (+1.0%), ResMed (RMD) (+0.7%), and CSL (CSL) (+0.1%) all edged positive.

Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.0%) bore the sharpest expression of Tuesday's hawkish hold hangover. When the RBA signals that further rate hikes are possible and that inflation risks remain skewed upside, property trusts face a direct double headwind — higher benchmark bond yields reduce the relative appeal of their stable income streams, and higher mortgage rates weigh on the property market underpinning their asset values. Scentre Group (SCG) (-1.8%), Stockland (SGP) (-1.6%), and Charter Hall (CHC) (-1.2%) were all lower.

ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Sector Index (XDJ) intraday chart

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.8%) followed the same hawkish hold logic — in a higher-for-longer rate environment, household disposable income shrinks, and spending-sensitive businesses feel it first. Premier Investments (PMV) (-11.0%) compounded the macro headwind with a company-specific blow, downgrading its full-year underlying profit guidance by 3.8% below prior forecasts. Temple & Webster (TPW) (-6.0%), Super Retail Group (SUL) (-5.5%), and Lovisa (LOV) (-4.5%) were all sharply lower without confirmed specific catalysts beyond the macro pressure.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.6%) continued to consolidate following the past week's earnings-driven selling. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-0.7%) fell modestly on the day after its full-year result — flagging a 15% drop in mortgage applications post-budget — was read as broadly in line but insufficiently impressive to justify the sector's valuation premium. Westpac (WBC) (-0.9%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.8%), and ANZ (ANZ) (-0.6%) were all softer.

ASX 200 Financials Sector Index (XFJ) intraday chart

Elsewhere in the sector, Suncorp (SUN) (+3.3%) was a notable exception, rising despite a steep drop in full-year profit — why? Well, it's lower profit was 1.7% ahead of consensus. FleetPartners (FPR) (+5.9%) surged on a third takeover offer, this time from Orix. ASX Ltd (ASX) (-2.8%) fell after disclosing a shareholder was proposing Federal Court action over the bungled CHESS replacement project.

Analysis

For detailed analysis of the Comp and the Old Tin Pot, check out today's ChartWatch LIVE Video below! 📺👇

View

I am 2/3RP on US stocks. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs the short term trend ribbon (presently 225778-25814) is the key zone of demand.

Analysis

For detailed analysis of the Comp and the Old Tin Pot, check out today's ChartWatch LIVE Video below! 📺👇

View

I am FRP on Aussie stocks. (My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in ASX stocks is now 100%).

Key Levels

There is no key point of supply to contend with, while demand is at 8940 and then at the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8904-8962).

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

***CHARTWATCH LIVE WEBINARS — NEW VIDEO DROPPED!!! 📺🍿***

GOLD! The Gold price is rising again: Massive ASX Gold sector review 🏅

TODAY

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today...

LATER THIS WEEK

Wednesday

• 22:00 USA July CPI

  • Headline: +0.1% m/m and +3.4% p.a. forecast vs -0.4% m/m and +3.5% p.a. previous

  • Core: +0.2% m/m and +2.5% p.a. forecast vs +0.0% m/m and +2.6% p.a. previous

Thursday

• TBC CHN July M2 Money Supply & New Loans

• 22:00 USA July Core PPI (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m previous)

Friday

• 09:30 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 12:30 AUS July CB Leading Index

• 22:00 USA July Core Retail Sales (+0.2% m/m forecast vs -0.2% m/m previous)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (54.4 forecast vs 55.2 previous)

• 00:00 USA Preliminary July University of Michigan Inflation Expectations