Evening Wrap: ASX 200 scrapes into black as interest rate sensitives bet on rate cuts, energy and resources stocks terrible again

The annus horribilis that 2024 has been for ASX Energy and Resources stocks continued today as both sectors sagged under the weight of respective lower commodity prices and investor apathy.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom – after all, the benchmark ASX 200 did sneak away with a tiny win – and that’s despite a big drop in ANZ shares after it announced a new CEO is on the way.

It was the interest rate sensitives that saved the day, stronger ahead of key data this week that could shape the global landscape for rates in 2025 (and not to mention tomorrow's RBA meeting!).

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

I have detailed technical analysis on Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Also, the Livewire team are working on the top picks and predictions for 2025. By participating in the survey you will gain exclusive early access to the results: Take the survey now.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 2.1 points higher at 8,423.0, % from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. Despite the benchmark sneaking a gain, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners dismally by 93 to 181.

The annus horribilis that 2024 has been for the Energy (XEJ) (-1.0%) sector continued today as major oil and gas, coal, and uranium stocks sagged under the weight of respective lower energy commodity prices and investor apathy.

Trends of the XEJ and the stocks within it are entrenched down-down from a short and long term perspective, earning them collectively more spots in my ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists than any other group of ASX stocks in 2024.

I know many investors love a bargain, but trying to catch the falling knife can be tricky – holding onto it as it falls is an even less attractive proposition.

An annus horribilis for the ASX Energy sector in 2024

2024’s “other ugly step-sister”, Resources (XJR) (-0.57%), was the second worst performer – again at the hands of weaker base and precious metals prices. A sliver of a gain in the iron ore price in Singapore and in the benchmark lithium carbonate futures contract in China, weren’t enough to stoke animal spirits on those areas of the sector. If anything, prices of lithium stocks in particular were sharply lower today.

Today’s worst performing stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors

It wasn’t all doom and gloom – after all, the benchmark ASX 200 did sneak away with a tiny win – and that’s despite a 3.6% decline in ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ) after it announced Nuno Matos would succeed Shayne Elliott as CEO.

Winning sectors included those that tend to benefit from falling risk-free market yields – we’ve seen some progress there in key overseas and local bond markets.

US 2-year Treasury Bond yield

Markets are betting on lower central bank rates as the inflation genie appears to have been stuffed back in the bottle post COVID pandemic, and locally, ahead of tomorrow’s RBA interest rate decision. Last weeks dour GDP numbers suggest growth in the Australian economy is at risk of grinding to a halt.

It might be a little counterintuitive then to see Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.64%) as the best performing major sector today – but again – markets are looking forward to lower rates ahead.

Also doing well today were other interest rate sensitives like debt-laden Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.30%) and high PE-sectors Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.36%) and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.30%).

Today’s best performing stocks from the best performing ASX sectors

ChartWatch

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Falling peaks and falling troughs

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 25 November.

In that update, I suggested investors simply “trust the trend” here and that they should do so until “the price action switches back to rising peaks and rising troughs”, and the uranium price closed "back above 84.05-85.95".

So, Friday’s continuation of the prevailing short and long term downtrends as I have defined them for a few months now – including a close below the important 76.70 point of demand – should be no surprise to anyone reading this update.

There really isn’t anything more that’s required to be added here. The trends are clear. The price action is clear. Together, they indicate convincing supply-side control of the price in the short and long term.

72.50 is the next critical point of demand. A close below there invites a probe of the next point of demand after that in 61.65. I would suggest that several existing projects are going to come under significant margin pressure with a uranium price around there.

I am maintaining the status quo until (again) the price action switches back to rising peaks and rising troughs, and the uranium price closes back above 84.05-85.95.

Economy

Today

• CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) November

  • +0.2% p.a. actual vs +0.4% p.a. forecast and +0.3% p.a. in October

• CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) November

  • -2.5% p.a. actual vs -2.8% p.a. forecast and -2.9% p.a. in October

  • For both: Negligible inflation in the Chinese economy indicates both sluggish economic growth, but also plenty of comfort that fiscal and monetary policies aimed at economic stimulus won't raise the spectre of inflation.

Later this week

Tuesday

• 14:30 RBA Interest rate decision (no change at 4.35% forecast

• 15:30 RBA Governor Michelle Bullock press conference

Wednesday

• N/a

Thursday

• 12:30 USA Core CPI November (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m previous)

• 11:30 AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate November

  • Change: +26,000 forecast vs +15,900 in October

  • U-Rate: 4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in October

Friday

• 00:15 EUR ECB interest rate decision (3.15% forecast vs 3.40% previous)

• 00:30 USA Core PPI (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +7.0% Avita Medical (AVH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Pointsbet (PBH) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term and long uptrends, bounced perfectly out of the long term uptrend ribbon, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% GQG Partners (GQG) - FUM as at 30 November 2024 and Termination of CDI buyback

• +6.0% 29METALS (29M) - No news today, small bounce relative to plunge that followed 4 Dec Proposed issue of securities

• +5.6% Tuas (TUA) - Continued positive response to Friday's AGM Presentation and Chairman's Address, rise is consistent with prevailing short term and long uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.8% Acrow (ACF) - Acrow Awarded $42 million Industrial Access Contract

• +3.8% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news

• +3.4% Goodman Group (GMG) - No news, bounced after block trade selloff late last week, rise is consistent with long term uptrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.0% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - EFA conditionally approves $196m commitment

• +2.9% Breville Group (BRG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term and long uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.4% Platinum Asset Management (PTM) - End of Regal discussions, special dividend & turnaround and Funds Under Management - November 2024, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long downtrends 🔎📉

• -8.3% Life360 (360) - No news since 18 Nov CEO Securities Sale

• -7.8% Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR) - Successful Completion of $16M Placement for Phase 3 and PAR Capital Raising Presentation

• -6.5% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, being dragged down by falling PLS price (due to that company's all-scrip takeover of LRS), fall is consistent with long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.3% Alcoa Corporation (AAI) - No news, tracking fall in US listing Friday, also tracking sharply lower LME aluminium price Friday

• -5.8% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long downtrends 🔎📉

• -5.5% Regal Partners (RPL) - Regal no longer pursuing a combination with Platinum

• -5.3% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.5% Novonix (NVX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.4% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.2% Beach Energy (BPT) - Perth Basin Site Visit, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.2% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• Atlantic Lithium (A11)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.30.

• Australian Ethical Investment (AEF)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.70.

• Aeris Resources (AIS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.25.

• Aml3d (AL3)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40.

• Aurelia Metals (AMI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.24.

• Bluebet (BBT)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.36 from $0.35.

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Initiated at hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.40.

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00 from $44.00.

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.10.

• Breville Group (BRG)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $38.00 from $33.00.

• Chrysos Corporation (C79)

  • Initiated at positive at E&P; Price Target: $6.32.

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $39.50.

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.80.

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10 from $7.00.

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.50.

• Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.00 from $12.80.

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $330.00 from $340.00.

• Centaurus Metals (CTM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65.

• Core Lithium (CXO)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.09.

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.20.

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.00.

• Fineos Corporation (FCL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.44 from $2.11.

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.25 from $14.50.

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.21.

• Galan Lithium (GLN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.14.

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.00.

• GQG Partners (GQG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.15.

• IGO (IGO)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.90 from $5.60.

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Bank of America; Price Target: $5.75 from $5.90.

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.10 from $7.00.

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.70.

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.30.

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.70.

• Ioneer (INR)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.28.

  • Retained at neutral at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.28.

• Jupiter Mines (JMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.21 from $0.22.

• Lotus Resources (LOT)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.42.

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.70.

• Mount Gibson Iron (MGX)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.34 from $0.38.

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00 from $35.00.

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $86.00 from $85.00.

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $4.20.

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.95 from $1.04.

• Piedmont Lithium (PLL)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.21.

• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.70.

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.60.

• Pacific Smiles Group (PSQ)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.95 from $2.15.

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Downgraded to sell from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.74 from $1.21.

• Resource Development Group (RDG)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.03 from $0.03.

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $121.00 from $119.00.

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $124.00.

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.60.

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.10.

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.58.

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.05.

• St Barbara (SBM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.54 from $0.53.

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.44 from $4.35.

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.80 from $10.20.

• SRG Global (SRG)

  • Initiated at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $1.67.

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $18.55 from $19.79.

• Sayona Mining (SYA)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.04.

• Turaco Gold (TCG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.70.

• Titomic (TTT)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.30.

• Tuas (TUA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.10 from $5.55.

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.70 from $5.50.

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.57 from $0.54.

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.50.

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.10.

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.50.

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.70.

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00 from $7.75.

Scans