Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds on strong tech, mining and energy, as lithium price surge spurs 9% gain in PLS

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 66.2 points higher, up 0.76%.

A rebound in WiseTech Global (WTC) shares helped the Information Technology sector to top spot on the ASX sector performance list, while the ongoing rallies in mining and energy stocks continued. It was lithium and critical minerals stocks, however, that experienced the greatest gains across those sectors, as a 5% gain in the lithium price in China spurred a 9% jump in Pilbara Minerals (PLS) shares.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 66.2 points higher at 8,835.9, 0.75% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a resounding 210 to 64 – it’s about time!

Fund flows: Tech not wrecked!

A rare day (as far as the recent past is concerned) where Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.4%) and Resources (XJR) (+1.5%) / Energy (XEJ) (+1.5%) topped the sector performance list.

A couple of observations here:

• Energy is increasingly beating the broader market, making the XJR-XEJ more of a “commodities bloc”. It’s still a low P/E Ratio sector, and its rally fits with our thesis that there’s a broad rotation into low P/E and cyclicals underway.

• Sure, the XIJ is having a rare moment in the sun – likely on the Nasdaq’s “saved-from-imminent-doom” rally on Friday (check ChartWatch Markets for detailed technical analysis) – yet the commodities bloc remained prominent in the fund manager’s sights (i.e., it wasn’t one or the other today… but both!).

ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ) chart

The rest of the sectors ran loosely to the playbook, i.e., higher P/E Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.5%), Health Care (XHJ) (+0.3%) and Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.0%) still underperformed:

• Seek (SEK) (-2.2%) (Telco. Services)

• Endeavour Group (EDV) (-1.6%) (Cons. Disc.)

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp. (FPH) (-1.1%) (Health)

• Car Group (CAR) (-1.0%) (Telco Services)

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (-0.7%) (Health)

• Cochlear (COH) (-0.4%) (Health)

• CSL (CSL) (-0.1%) (Health)

• REA Group (REA) (0.0%) (Telco Services)

Hmmm… every single one the above stocks has Featured frequently in my ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends Scan List over the last few weeks / in many cases months. 🤔

There was also still a bit of one or the other with Financials (XFJ) (+0.6%) also modestly lagging the index / XJR-XEJ, as lagged. Also, there was little need for defensives today in the form of Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.4%) (Woolworths Group (WOW) (-0.9%), Coles Group (COL) (-0.4%)).

Stock Specific: Lithium lights up (again...😮‍💨)

Lithium stocks are up again (after a "down again" last week!). They led a broader critical minerals recovery today – which I suspect could not have come at a better time for many of the sector's faithful!

GFEX Lithium Carbonate Futures are up around 5% at the time of writing – without anything specific I could find on the news front. It's very much a rumour driven market – which was sunk last week on reports certain shuttered Chinese lithium mines were about to reopen... So, perhaps its something to with those rumours being refuted for now!

Either way – because you know I really don't care about rumours (or fundamentals!) – there's growing evidence in the technicals that the demand-side is gaining control of both the short and long term lithium carbonate price.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) chart

A quick look at the Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+9.2%) chart – today's best performer in the ASX Top 100 – suggests the short and long term trends here are both intact and well ahead of the commodity's own price moves. It note it has been a Feature Uptrend in the ChartWatch ASX Scans List 7 times since the 11 August candle, and will likely be so again based on today's candle.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Could not have come at a better time? 🤔

I.e., today’s demand-side candle ⬜🕯️.

Well, it could have – it could have come on Thursday or Friday when we were dearly wanting some confirmation of Wednesday’s downward pointing shadow into the 8731-38 demand zone!

That’s the problem with having a foot in both camps (i.e., my move to 1/2RP on Friday!) – you’re never really sure if you want the market to go up or down! ⚖️

All things considered, I’ll happily take “up”, as it’s far easier to navigate a low volatility bull market than a high volatility bear.

Today’s gain would have been far more credible if it had some volume about it – but I guess there’s just as much apathy towards the market today as there’s been during the entire correction from 9116. It's just fund managers toying with prices! 🤦

For what it’s worth, today's confirming signal to Wednesday’s downward pointing shadow low into 8731-38 is welcome, particularly because further solidifies that zone as the key go-no-go point for this phase of the bull market. Clearly, we do not want to close below there = ⚠️⚠️⚠️.

Confirmation. That’s what we want now – confirmation that the demand-side is coming back in, confirmation that it’s strong enough to challenge the supply that is lurking in the system around 8963 and the short term trend ribbon (now officially pink/down).

Today’s candle sets Friday’s low as a higher trough to 8733. The 6-Nov peak of 8858 is the next point to watch – a move above that and we’re back to rising peaks and rising troughs. Ideally it occurs on an emphatic demand-side candle (i.e., long white body and or long downward pointing shadow).

That’s the work that must be done to steady proceedings here – or potentially to further shake them up should be see a close below 8731.

Let’s see what we get… in the meantime, I’m happy on the fence for now… as uncomfortable as straddling it might be!

View: I remain comfortable at 1/2RP (1/2 Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels: 8831 is the next key level that the price must not cross to maintain any semblance this is still a short term uptrend! A close above the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8895-8903) would help confirm the demand-side remains active in the system.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 10:30 AUS November Westpac Consumer Sentiment (-3.5% in October)

• 11:30 AUS November Westpac Consumer Sentiment (7 points in October)

Wednesday

• No major economic data releases scheduled

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS October Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +14,900 in September

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.4% vs 4.5% in September

Friday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown USA October Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in September)

• 05:01 USA 30-year Government Treasury Bond Auction

• 13:00 CHN October Data Dump

  • Fixed Asset Investment: -0.8% ytd/y forecast vs -0.5% ytd/y in September

  • Industrial Production: +5.5% p.a. vs +6.5% p.a. in September

  • Retail Sales: +2.8% p.a. vs +3.0% p.a. in September

  • Unemployment Rate: Forecast 5.2% vs 5.2% in October

Saturday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown USA October Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Tentative due to govt shutdown USA October Retail Sales

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +33.1% Nova Minerals (NVA) – AGM Presentation November 2025, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +19.3% St George Mining (SGQ) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +19.0% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +17.9% European Lithium (EUR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +16.0% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +15.7% Cettire (CTT) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +15.5% Titan Minerals (TTM) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.9% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +13.6% Victory Metals (VTM) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +13.3% Firefly Metals (FFM) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.7% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -7.7% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) – $35m Placement and $2m Share Purchase Plan, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.6% Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – Continued negative response to 07-Nov FY26 Earnings Guidance, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.3% Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) – No news.

• -5.9% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) – Update on Scheme and Supreme Court of NSW proceedings, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -5.8% Perpetual Credit Income Trust (PCI) – Non-renounceable entitlement offer and shortfall offer.

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $58.50

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.28

Alligator Energy (AGE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.07

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.06

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $10.00

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $71.00

Aspen Group (APZ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.85

Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.49 from $2.58

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.50 from $3.50

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.50 from $3.60

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $44.30

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.17

Antipa Minerals (AZY)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.40

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.90

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.85

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.19 from $1.10

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Initiated at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.05

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.65

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10

Comet Ridge (COI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.21

Conrad Asia Energy (CRD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.70

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.20

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.70

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.40

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.45

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10

GDI Property Group (GDI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.85

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.55

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $40.80

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.00

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60

Hansen Technologies (HSN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.20

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.50

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.60

IperionX (IPX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.25

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.02 from $1.86

LGI (LGI)

• Initiated at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.70

Lotus Resources (LOT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.35

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.45

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.50

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.75

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $241.00 from $231.00

• Upgraded to overweight from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $220.00 from $200.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $226.00

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $215.70 from $222.87

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $255.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $225.00

News Corporation (NWS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $50.50 from $57.80

Oohmedia (OML)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.65 from $1.80

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.46

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.30

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.40

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.85

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $12.70 from $13.00

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $13.27 from $14.45

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.50 from $11.60

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.29

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.40

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $11.50 from $12.00

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.50 from $23.30

Qoria (QOR)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.96

QPM Energy (QPM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.09

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $244.00 from $256.00

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $273.00

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $207.00 from $212.00

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $225.00 from $240.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $220.00 from $255.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $300.00

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $247.00 from $254.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $255.00 from $285.00

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.45

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.45

SenSen Networks (SNS)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.14

Santos (STO)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.60 from $6.76

Strike Energy (STX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.15

Summit Minerals (SUM)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.25

Titomic (TTT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.32 from $27.00

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.75

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.00

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $210.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $228.90 from $204.00

Scans