ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 10th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, November 10. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 climbs, hovering intraday highs

[1:58 pm] A solid session so far, with the ASX 200 picking up steam (up +0.30% around noon to +0.64% now). Notable gains for Tech (+1.64%), Materials (+1.50%) and Energy (+1.05%), while defensives (Health Care, Real Estate, Staples and Utilities) are clawing back early losses.

Overall, not much to see here. The market's bouncing off a six-week low and trying to find a floor after the recent CPI-driven selloff. Still lots of moving pieces amid double-digit EPS growth for the S&P 500, renewed Fed easing vs. prolonged RBA pause, still-solid macro backdrop, favourable seasonality and labour market volatility. Still waiting for the market to find some stability amid this pullback.

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DroneShield corrects deal misclassification

[1:02 pm] Droneshield says this morning's announcement regarding 3 standalone contracts totalling $7.6 million for the US government was inadvertently marked as new rather than revised contracts.

Droneshield won these contracts earlier this year but the order was reissued by the customer due to regulatory updates.

The stock briefly rallied 9.9% ($3.55) this morning, now up just 2% ($3.29).

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Uranium stocks bounce

[12:59 pm] A sea of green for uranium stocks, though most have suffered a sharp pullback in recent days (e.g. Paladin Energy was on a five day skid, down 19.5%).

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Qantas trading update takeaways

[11:59 am] Qantas shares dipped 5.7% last Friday despite its trading update highlighting resilient demand across leisure, SME, and resources, though non-resource corporate demand continues to expand at a slower-than-expected pace. Management moderated its 1H26 domestic unit revenue and capacity growth guidance to the lower end of prior ranges.

• UBS upgraded to Buy, lowered target from $12 to $11.50. Domestic RASK slightly below prior range, higher fuel and carbon costs, Jetstar Asia closure impact, but capacity restraint and Loyalty growth viewed as offsets.

• JPMorgan maintained Neutral, lowered target from $11.60 to $10.50. H1 RASK in line with guidance, Jetstar Asia closure costs manageable, expected earnings recovery into FY27 as cost base stabilises.

• Macquarie maintained Outperform, target $12.29. Domestic and international RASK broadly in line, Jetstar performance better than expected, Loyalty EBIT stabilises group, FY26 growth supported by cost discipline and fleet improvements.

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ASX 200 higher as banks and miners gain

[11:46 am] Another dicey session as the ASX 200 makes a small bounce off of last Friday's fresh five-week low.

• ASX 200 up 0.32%, off intraday highs of 0.45%

• Mixed breadth with 121 constituents trading higher (61%)

• Broad weakness for defensives/value, with Staples (-0.91%), Utilities (-0.68%), Healthcare (-0.51%) and Real Estate (-0.45%) lower

• ANZ (+2.55%) lifting the Financials (+0.62%) sector higher

• Materials (+0.64% higher) despite relatively flattish session for iron ore majors, offset by strength from gold, rare earths and lithium

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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ANZ swings into positive territory

[11:41 am] ANZ 1H25 result read weak at face value but looks like market is focusing on its better cost guidance and capital position. While executive risks remain front and centre, its relative valuation still seen as attractive.

ANZ shares dipped 2.3% in early trade and currently up 2.9% to all-time highs.

The key numbers from earlier:

• Cash net profit down 14% to $5.78bn vs. $6.15bn ests (5.9% miss)

• Cash EPS down 13% to 194.7 cents vs. 202 cents ests (3.5% miss)

• Total dividend of 166 cps vs. Citi ests of 166 cps (in-line)

• Net interest margin down 2 bps to 1.54% vs. Citi ests of 1.55% (1 bp miss)

• CET1 down 17 bps to 12.0%

• Total credit impairment charge of $441m

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AGL shares tick higher

[11:37 am] AGL announced plans to divest a 19.9% equity interest in Tilt Renewables for $750 million to existing shareholders QIC and Future Fund.

The stock briefly rallied 2.8% in early trade, now up 1.0% ($9.01).

"In our view, this transaction was well flagged to the market and fits into AGL's asset recycling strategy of solar/wind assets to support its growth aspirations for on balance sheet ownership of firming assets (e.g. batteries, peaking gas plants, pumped hydro)," RBC Capital Markets analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note this morning.

AGL daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Macquarie 1H25 analyst takeaways

[10:47 am] Macquarie shares tumbled 5.7% on Friday after the company after its 1H25 results missed expectations due to elevated costs in its commodities division and green asset impairments. On the plus side, the early recognition of performance fees from Aligned Data Centers was seen as a key support to the result and underpins earnings into FY27-28. Banking and financial services, Macquarie Capital segments delivered solid results.

• Jarden upgraded to Overweight, raised target from $200 to $220. CGM needs further structural work, but divestment supports medium-term fee growth and MAM poised to resume asset growth.

• E&P raised to Positive, target increased from $231 to $241. Despite a noisy result, private markets deployment drove growth, MAM and BFS exceeded expectations, supported by a strong balance sheet.

• UBS maintained Neutral, target $225. Profitability at historical lows, CGM and green assets remain concerns, and stock trades above average historical valuation.

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REA 1Q26 analyst takeaways

[10:47 am] REA reported a relatively in-line first quarter update last Friday, with strong domestic yield growth offsetting weak listing volumes and a softer-than-expected performance in India.

• Jarden retained Neutral, lowered target from $212 to $207. Strong domestic yield offsets India drag, with residential volumes a potential H2 concern, cost base well managed.

• Morgans retained Accumulate, lowered target from $254 to $247. Yield growth is positive, October listings improving, and valuation upgrade supports the rating.

• JPMorgan maintained Neutral, lowered target from $240 to $225. Product mix boosted yield, margins may face pressure, and India loss guidance lifted post divestments.

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Dyno Nobel hits all-time highs

[10:13 am] Shares in Dyno Nobel opened 1.2% higher, currently up 5.3% to fresh all-time highs of $3.38.

A copy and paste from an earlier post:

• Revenue down 0.4% to $5.34bn vs. $5.49bn ests (2.5% miss)

• Statutory loss of $53m (vs. $311m loss a year ago)

• NPAT (ex-IMIs) up 5.4% to $423m vs. $412.5m ests (2.6% beat)

• EBIT (ex-IMIs) up 23% to $714m vs. $656.1m ests (5.6% beat)

• Final dividend of 9.5 cents vs. UBS ests of 7.2 cents (31% beat)

• Share buyback expected to recommence from 11-Nov ($430.6m of the planned $900m buyback completed to date)

• On track to deliver $600m EBIT ambition in FY28

A solid beat and dividend surprise. The other thing I found interesting was that UBS estimates currently have FY28 EBIT sitting at $465 million, so possible consensus upgrades given the 'on track to deliver $600m ..." statement.

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Droneshield wins $7.9m contract

[9:56 am] DroneShield secured new US government contracts, reflecting strong growth in both order volume and value.

• Handheld systems contracts worth A$7.6 million, all to be delivered in Q4, with payments expected in Q4 or Q1 FY26.

• Year-to-date, the company has received 78 purchase orders, up from 66 last year, with median order value doubling to ~$400,000.

Droneshield is in the midst of a steep pullback, with the stock down 52% from its 7-Oct record high of $6.71.

Company page: Droneshield (DRO)

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Zip submits draft registration to US SEC

[9:50 am] Zip has submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission relating to the potential dual listing in the US.

The potential dual listing remains subject to Zip Board approval and the completion of a number of required processes.

Source: Company announcement (ZIP)

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AGL divests Tilt Renewables stake

[9:46 am]AGL Energy is monetising part of its Tilt Renewables stake to fund growth and strengthen its balance sheet while maintaining a strategic partnership.

• AGL is selling 19.9% of its 20% Tilt stake for $750 million, generating a gain given the carrying value of A$321 million.

• Proceeds will support AGL’s investment in flexible, dispatchable energy capacity and provide additional balance sheet flexibility.

• AGL and Tilt are forming a strategic partnership to advance Tilt’s asset growth and AGL’s decarbonisation strategy.

• The collaboration includes offtake opportunities from Tilt’s existing assets and development pipeline.

• Transaction completion is expected by Q3 FY26.

Company page: AGL Energy (AGL)

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Dyno Nobel FY25 results

[9:38 am] This is probably one to watch this morning, as Dyno Nobel's turnaround continues to gather momentum. Here are the key numbers for FY25:

• Revenue down 0.4% to $5.34bn vs. $5.49bn ests (2.5% miss)

• Statutory loss of $53m (vs. $311m loss a year ago)

• NPAT (ex-IMIs) up 5.4% to $423m vs. $412.5m ests (2.6% beat)

• EBIT (ex-IMIs) up 23% to $714m vs. $656.1m ests (5.6% beat)

• Final dividend of 9.5 cents vs. UBS ests of 7.2 cents (31% beat)

• Share buyback expected to recommence from 11-Nov ($430.6m of the planned $900m buyback completed to date)

• On track to deliver $600m EBIT ambition in FY28

Company page: Dyno Nobel (DNL)

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Iress margin target looks weak

[9:27 am] The Iress guidance update noted a cash EBITDA margin target of ~25% (adjusted EBITDA less capex) by the end of FY26. Just having a flick through Macquarie's modelling (August 2025), which had EBITDA margins (unclear if adjusted) at:

• FY25: 23.0%

• FY26: 26.9%

• FY27: 28.0%

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Iress tightens FY26 guidance

[9:24 am] Iress has tweaked its FY26 guidance as the company commences its business efficiency program, designed to enhance operating leverage and strengthen profitability.

• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance of $67-71m vs. prior $65-73m

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $128-132m vs. prior $127-135m

• Targeting cash EBITDA margin of ~25% by end of FY26

• Continues to engage with multiple parties on possible strategic proposal

Company page: Iress (IRE)

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CVC Asia Pacific approaches EQT on AUB Deal

[9:21 am] EQT has received an unsolicited approach from CVC Asia Pacific to partner in acquisition of AUB Group, though the takeover price would remain at $45.00.

The AUB board has permitted EQT to form a consortium with CBC, and extended the exclusivity period to 4 December.

AUB shares closed at $38.89 on Friday, representing a 15.7% discount to the offer price. This suggests a high level of skepticism that the deal will complete.

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

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ANZ FY25 results

[9:14 am] A rather sizeable miss across the board for ANZ.

• Cash net profit down 14% to $5.78bn vs. $6.15bn ests (5.9% miss)

• Cash EPS down 13% to 194.7 cents vs. 202 cents ests (3.5% miss)

• Total dividend of 166 cps vs. Citi ests of 166 cps (in-line)

• Net interest margin down 2 bps to 1.54% vs. Citi ests of 1.55% (1 bp miss)

• CET1 down 17 bps to 12.0%

• Total credit impairment charge of $441m

CEO commentary: “Our full year statutory profit of $5.89 billion was down 10% on the previous year’s performance, impacted by significant items of $1.1 billion as we resolved long-standing regulatory investigations, and actions taken to simplify our business. While our financial performance held steady when excluding these items, our performance as a business reinforces the importance of our ANZ 2030 strategy."

Company page: ANZ Group (ANZ)

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SGH reaffirms FY26 EBIT guidance

[9:08 am] SGH reaffirmed its FY26 EBIT guidance of low to mid-single digit growth year-on-year vs. 3.0% consensus. The stock has traded relatively flat for the past twelve months, though this follows a ~200% rally since June 2022.

Source: SGH announcement

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Rare earth stocks bounce

[9:01 am] The rare earth trade might not be done and dusted as as fresh policy moves and geopolitical maneuvering suggest the battle for supply chains is far from over. Lots of headlines overnight, including:

• China starts designing new rare earth licensing regime to expedite shipments, but won't fully rollback restrictions (RT)

• China-US rare-earth deal encounters issues as regional authorities confirm April controls will stay in place (NK)

• Trump administration designates 10 essential minerals for economy, including copper and metallurgical coal (RT)

• US supports Brazilian mine project to reduce China's dominance in rare earths supply (FT)

• Japan and US to collaborate on rare earth extraction near Minamitorishima, starting tests in January (BBG)

A key name like MP Materials rallied 12.8% after falling almost 50% from its 14-Oct record high.

MP Materials daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation package

[8:57 am] Elon Musk secured overwhelming shareholder approval for his record-breaking Tesla pay package and used the occasion to outline bold, futuristic ambitions spanning robots, cars, and even Mars.

Over 75% of Tesla investors backed Musk’s US$1 trillion compensation plan, clearing the way for him to lift his stake to 25% and potentially become the world’s first trillionaire if Tesla hits an US$8.5 trillion valuation target.

The key targets include:

• Tesla must hit an $8.5 trillion market cap (vs. ~$1.4 trillion now)

• 20 million EVs delivered

• 1 million Robo-taxis in operation

• 1 million humanoid robots deployed

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Gold at US$4,000

[8:53 am] Gold continues to chop around the US$4,000 level as prices work off what in hindsight looks a lot like a blow-off top. Finding some support around these levels, but price action remains dicey and struggling to find a strong close above the 20-day (red).

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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US Q3 earnings: Strong as

[8:47 am] Q3 earnings season continues to outperform expectations, with stronger-than-anticipated profit and revenue growth across the S&P 500.

• Blended EPS growth stands at 13.1%, well above the 7.9% projected at quarter-end, while revenue growth is tracking at 8.3%.

• 82% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, the highest in over a year and above both one-and five-year averages of 77% and 78% respectively,

• The average EPS beat margin is 7%, slightly below recent historical norms, while sales surprises remain in line with five-year trends.

• Overall results suggest earnings resilience amid a challenging macro backdrop, with corporate profitability stronger than analysts had anticipated.

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NY Fed survey finds inflation expectations lower

[8:46 am] US consumers grew slightly more optimistic on inflation in October, though sentiment around job security and household finances remained mixed, according to the latest NY Fed Survey.

• Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.2%, while longer-term expectations held steady at 3.0%.

• Earnings growth expectations improved to 2.6%, but more consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next year.

• Job-loss risk fell modestly to 14%, yet confidence in finding a new job declined for a third straight month.

• Household spending expectations slipped to 4.8%, and a higher share of households reported their finances worsened year-on-year.

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US consumer sentiment plummets

[8:45 am] US consumer sentiment slumped in early November, highlighting deepening pessimism among lower-income households while wealthier consumers remain buoyed by stock market gains.

• Headline sentiment fell sharply to 50.3, well-below ests of 54.2 and the lowest since June 2022.

• Current Economic Conditions Index plunged to 52.3, marking a record low, driven by a 17% decline in assessments of personal finances.

• Year-ahead business expectations dropped 11%, while short-term inflation expectations inched up to 4.7%.

• The divergence between groups widened, with higher-income consumers growing more upbeat thanks to strong equity markets.

• The report reinforces a K-shaped pattern in the US economy, where spending and confidence remain concentrated among the wealthiest 10% of households.

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S&P 500 reverses early losses

[8:43 am] An encouraging reversal overnight, with the S&P 500 up 0.13% vs. intraday lows of -1.32%.

S&P 500 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 23pts (+0.26%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• Major US benchmarks reversed early losses to close broadly higher and at session highs

• S&P 500 (+0.13%) rallied from a session low of -1.32%

• Breadth solid, with Equal-weight S&P 500 up 0.84%

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (-3.04%), Russell 2000 (-1.88%), S&P 500 (-1.63%) and Dow (-1.21%) 

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.