Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 claws back early losses, Nasdaq logs worst week since April

ASX 200 futures are up 23pts (+0.26%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks reversed early losses to close broadly higher and at session highs

• S&P 500 (+0.13%) rallied from a session low of -1.32% but benchmarks all logged weekly declines

• Breadth solid, with Equal-weight S&P 500 up 0.84% as all sectors except Tech and Telcos lower

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, rallied off sizeable midday losses to close at best levels

• S&P 500 finished slightly higher from session low of -1.32%

• Strong breadth with Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.84%) outperforming the official benchmark by 71 bps

• Big turnaround tabbed to Democrat offer to end shutdown in exchange for extension to Affordable Care Act subsidies and double-digit Q3 S&P earnings growth

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (-3.04%), Russell 2000 (-1.88%), S&P 500 (-1.63%) and Dow (-1.21%) 

• Strong Q3 earnings providing lackluster tailwind for market with blame going to high expectations, stretched valuations, AI skepticism (WSJ)

• US companies posting best earnings growth in four years, with tariff mitigation, AI capex boom, IB/capital markets, advertising and travel among bright spots (FT)

• Nasdaq suffers biggest decline since Liberation Day tariffs on AI scrutiny, pickup in concerns about US growth slowdown weigh on risk sentiment and drive (WSJ)

• US dollar volatility recedes to lowest level in a year on the back of trade deals, resilient US economy, near end of big central banks' rate cutting cycle (FT)

• US equity funds see eighth consecutive week of inflows as investors increasingly favor cash and bonds (INVT)

• Tech giants increasingly turning to complex debt-financing options such as corporate debt, securitisation, private financing and off-balance-sheet vehicles to fund AI capex (DB)

STOCKS

• Nvidia has asked TSMC for additional wafers to meet strong demand for Blackwell (BBG)

• Nvidia CEO softens 'China will win the AI race' comment; states no active talks to sell Blackwell AI chips to China (BBG)

• Blackstone on verge of closing an unprecedented ~$3.5bn CMBS offering to refinance debt held by QTS Data Centers, the biggest player in the AI infrastructure market (DB)

• Apple Air has been a marketing win, but a sales laggard amid complaints about weaker camera, sound quality, battery and price tag (WSJ)

• Pfizer wins bidding war for weight-loss startup Metsera with $10bn deal (CNBC)

• Exxon to 'pace' spending on low-carbon projects due to disappointing customer demand and lack of policy support (FT)

• Tesla shareholders approve Musk's trillion dollar pay deal under threat of departure, Musk anticipates full approval for Tesla's advanced driver-assistance in China by February (BBG)

• Take-Two delays Grand Theft Auto VI release to November 2026 for additional polishing by Rockstar Games (BBG)

• UBS to liquidate funds with exposure to First Brands (FT)

• Honda reduces annual profit forecast due to critical semiconductor shortage impacting production (BBG)

TARIFFS

• White House to pause on port crane duties and ship fees, wants to negotiate over China shipping (BBG)

• Trump accepts tariffs raise US consumer prices, contradicting previous claims about foreign payments helping Americans (RT)

• China starts designing new rare earth licensing regime to expedite shipments, but won't fully rollback restrictions (RT)

• China-US rare-earth deal encounters issues as regional authorities confirm April controls will stay in place (NK)

• Trump administration designates 10 essential minerals for economy, including copper and metallurgical coal (RT)

• US supports Brazilian mine project to reduce China's dominance in rare earths supply (FT)

• Japan and US to collaborate on rare earth extraction near Minamitorishima, starting tests in January (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Willams highlights balancing act facing central bank as it considers whether to ease again in December; acknowledges affordability constraints on lower and moderate-income households (FT)

• Cleveland Fed President Hammack says high inflation argues against further US interest rate cuts (RT)

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expresses concern over interest-rate cuts amid lack of inflation data during shutdown (BBG)

• Fed Governor Miran anticipates December interest rate cuts but says nothing is guaranteed (RT)

• Central banks in large economies nearing end of their rate-easing cycles (Reuters)

SHUTDOWN

• Democrats offering vote on clean continuing resolution in exchange for one-year extension of expiring ACA subsidies, effectively lowering demands to end government shutdown (BBG)

• President Trump says Americans will receive a dividend of US$2,000 from tariff revenue collected by administration (TH)

• Three largest US airlines to cancel hundreds of flights because of air traffic control shortages triggered by shutdown (FT)

ECONOMY

• US consumer sentiment declines to 50.3 vs. 54.2 consensus, index now lowest since June 2022 (BBG)

• US holiday spending expected to exceed $1tn for first time (AX)

• Canada's economy risks recession with high unemployment and stalled investment, impacted by US tariffs (WSJ)

• Chinese exports fell in October as front-loading fades; imports slow amid weak domestic demand (RT)

• Japanese household spending rose 1.8% in September but fell 0.7% month-on-month amid forecasts (RT)

• Taiwan's exports surged at fastest rate in nearly 16 years driven by demand for chips and AI (RT)

ASX TODAY

• 5E Advanced Minerals welcomes US designation of boron as a critical mineral (5EA)

• A2 Milk expands long-term strategic cooperation arrangements with CFSA to include English label infant milk formula products (A2M)

• SGH reaffirms FY26 EBIT low-to-mid single digit % growth (SGH)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

Running a bit behind today. Check out the Live Blog for my insights/quick takes

BROKER MOVES

• Catapult Sports initiated Buy with $8.05 target (GS)

• Qantas upgraded to Buy from Neutral but target lowered to $11.50 from $12.00 (UBS)

• QBE upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $23.50 from $23.30 (MQG)

Key events 

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 10 Nov: None

• Tue 11 Nov: Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.109, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Wed 12 Nov: ResMed (RMD) – $0.064, Acorn Capital (ACQ) – $0.028

• Thu 13 Nov: Future Generation Australia (FGX) – $0.036

• Fri 14 Nov: TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: ANZ (ANZ), Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Coles (COL), Cromwell Property Group (CMW), Downer (DOW), Goodman Group (GMG), Jumbo Interactive (JIN), TPG Telecom (TPG)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.