Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds on strong earnings from Westpac, Pro Medicus, iron ore majors a drag

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 46.7 points higher, up 0.53%.

Not quite another record high by the close – although we did tip a new intraday best just after lunchtime. I suggest we would have nailed it if not for a pullback in the Resources (XJR) (-0.7%) sector, which was dragged down by a negative response by our major iron ore miners to a lower iron ore price today (-1.6% to US$102/t in Singapore), and a dip in Telstra (TLS) (-2.6%) post-earnings.

Otherwise, the ASX 200 was bolstered by a rebound in banking shares, led by Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+6.3%) – this time investors loved their trading update (compare to Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) (-1.1%) demise yesterday!) – and a surge in Pro Medicus (PME) (+6.2%) post its stellar results.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 46.7 points higher at 8,873.8, 0.53% from its session low and 0.29% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 166 to 107.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart (click here for full size image)

Ha! The zebra continues! 🦓

But a tiny candle, hardly what you’d say is perpetuating the volatility over the prior 8 days of alternating candle-body colours. Don’t worry – I won’t do the stats on the pattern’s growing rarity!

Nope, it was just a run of the mill pause / contemplation day within the prevailing short and long term uptrends.

You could say the supply-side won the day, but what did they win? 🤔 It was still higher high and higher low stuff (i.e., we still saw a bit of supply removal and demand reinforcement).

Hey, ideally every day in the bull market is a long-white-bodied candle…or one with a long downward pointing shadow – but I’d also love to own a unicorn that poops gold nuggets 🦄.

Neither is likely to occur in real life.

We are going to get ebbs and flows like Wednesday’s candle, our job is to determine if any new candle changes the prevailing technicals enough to warrant us changing our risk levels.

And I think we all agree Wednesday’s candle isn’t even close to changing anything here.

Conclusion: Stay the course: FRP.

(You know the drill…21458 is demand, ideally we continue to close above that – but it’s more important we continue to close above the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon, presently kicking in around 20805-21095. We don’t want to see long black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows as they would indicate the supply-side is gaining ascendancy.)

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Ebb and flow. Yesterday was ebb, today, flow.

I won’t insult your intelligence and labour the point by going the minutiae of the technicals: Nothing has changed in the chart above to change our risk levels for the XJO – the broad summary is short and long term trends, price action, and candles remain intact.

Conclusion: Stay the course, FRP.

(You know the drill…8760-8777 is demand, ideally we continue to close above that – but it’s more important we continue to close above the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon, presently kicking in around 8695-8755. We don’t want to see long black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows as they would indicate the supply-side is gaining ascendancy.)

Economy

Today

• AUS Employment Data July

  • Employment change: +24,500 vs +25,300 forecast and +1,000 (revised down from +2,000) in June

  • Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs 4.2% forecast and 4.3% in June

Later this week

Thursday

• 22:30 USA Core Producer Price Index (PPI) July (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.0% m/m in June)

Friday

• 12:00 CHN China Data Dump July

  • New Home Prices m/m

  • Industrial Production y/y: +6.0% p.a. forecast vs +6.8% p.a. in June

  • Retail Sales y/y: +4.6% p.a. forecast vs +4.8% p.a. in June

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y: +2.7% ytd/y forecast vs +2.8% ytd/y in June

  • Unemployment Rate: +5.1% forecast vs +5.0% previous

• 22:30 USA Core Retail Sales July (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in June)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment August (61.9 forecast vs 61.7 in July)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +22.0% Waratah Minerals (WTM) – No news since 13-Aug A$30m Placement to Accelerate Drilling at the Spur Project, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +21.2% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news since 11-Aug REE Target Found Beneath Fenite Outcrops, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.1% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +9.1% Talga Group (TLG) – Talga Investor Webinar Recording and Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +9.0% Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) – Becoming a substantial holder, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +8.7% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) – FY25 Results & Trading Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.7% Fineos Corporation (FCL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.2% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.7% Servcorp (SRV) – Results Presentation - Full Year Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Vection Technologies (VR1) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.8% LGI (LGI) – No news since 12-Aug FY2025 ASX Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.5% Eroad (ERD) – SPH Notice Regal Funds Management, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Origin Energy (ORG) – Presentation to Analysts and Financial Markets, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) – WBC 3Q25 Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.2% Pro Medicus (PME) – PME FY2025 results presentation and Annual Report 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – Further intercepts outside Trident's Resource envelope, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -10.0% Victory Metals (VTM) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.1% Liontown Resources (LTR) – Share Purchase Plan Opens / Share Purchase Plan Booklet (and possibly Change in substantial holding - T Goyder), general weakness across the broader Battery Materials sector today, GFEX lithium carbonate futures were down sharply around ASX close… but have since rallied to close roughly square on the day.

• -6.7% Meeka Metals (MEK) – No news 🤔.

• -5.4% Bravura Solutions (BVS) – Continued negative response to 13-Aug FY25 Results Presentation.

• -5.2% South32 (S32) – Mozal Aluminium Update, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -5.1% Amaero International (3DA) – No news 🤔.

• -5.0% Novonix (NVX) – No news, general weakness across the broader Battery Materials sector today.

• -5.0% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) – No news 🤔.

• -4.4% Elsight (ELS) – Change in substantial holding.

Broker Moves

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.30

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.50 from $12.00

• Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.35 from $11.40

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $11.43 from $12.82

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.91 from $11.13

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.68 from $11.88

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.00 from $12.00

• Downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $10.00 from $13.00

• Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.65 from $11.50

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.20 from $11.00

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.35

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.76 from $10.90

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $11.25 from $10.75

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $11.50 from $12.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.90

• Downgraded to Market-weight from Overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $9.53 from $9.39

APA Group (APA)

• Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.00

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Upgraded to Outperform from Hold at CLSA; Price Target: $4.09 from $3.91

• Retained at Positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.80

• Retained at Buy at Jarden; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.55

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.50

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.06 from $4.19

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.73

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $71.60 from $68.80

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $65.50

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $63.65

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Downgraded to Trim from Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.16

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.00 from $28.50

Bravura Solutions (BVS)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.03 from $3.17

• Downgraded to Market-weight from Overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $2.10 from $3.17

Chrysos Corporation (C79)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.70 from $4.40

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $110.00 from $100.00

• Retained at Underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $137.12 from $138.65

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $105.00

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $131.00 from $129.00

• Retained at Sell at Morgans; Price Target: $100.85 from $97.40

• Retained at Sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $105.00

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $125.00 from $120.00

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $40.40 from $40.90

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.50 from $38.00

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.30 from $33.70

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.19

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.19

• Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.17

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $310.00

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.94 from $2.86

EBR Systems Inc (EBR)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.86

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.15 from $7.95

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.50

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.60

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00

• Retained at Trim at Morgans; Price Target: $7.30 from $7.00

• Retained at Lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.35

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.40

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at Neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.45

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.75 from $9.78

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.10 from $9.20

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.45 from $8.35

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.60 from $9.50

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.05 from $2.25

Kinatico (KYP)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.30

LGI (LGI)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.25 from $3.65

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.95 from $16.65

Oneview Healthcare Plc (ONE)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.34

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.34

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.05

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.36

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.10

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.70

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.70

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $15.00 from $14.50

Santos (STO)

• Upgraded to Accumulate from Trim at Morgans; Price Target: $8.65 from $6.80

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.19

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.60

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.26 from $21.10

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $15.50

Tuas (TUA)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.00

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.50

• Retained at Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $9.20 from $10.00

• Retained at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.50 from $10.20

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

• Downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.70 from $10.75

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $10.10 from $10.25

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.42

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.50

Vulcan Steel (VSL)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.97 from $7.29

• Retained at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.25 from $7.25

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.50 from $7.30

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.30

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.40

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $28.50

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $30.10 from $31.00

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $134.00 from $127.40

Scans