ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 14th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 14. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 eyes record highs

[2:05 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is up 48 pts (+0.55%), easing from early highs of 72 pts (+0.82%). It needs a close of at least +0.62% to top Tuesday's record high.

The gains are supported by a strong uplift in banks, off the back of Westpac's Q3 result. Notable gainers include: Westpac (+5.8%), Suncorp (+3.0%), NAB (+2.4%) and ANZ (+1.5%). Utilities is the top performing sector, with heavyweight Origin Energy (+4.1%) rallying on better-than-expected results. Discretionary also catching a bid, with Temple & Webster (+7.7%) surging on a relatively positive FY25 result and strong start to FY26.

That's a wrap. Hope today's blog provided some good insights. Always feel free to reach out and/or provide some feedback via the link above. Catch you all tomorrow.

ASX 200 sector breakdown (Source: Market Index)

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Pro Medicus: V-shape gains

[1:46 pm] Pro Medicus delivered a small beat, though CEO Dr Sam Hupert had some interesting comments about the result and year ahead.

• Revenue up 31.9% to $213m vs. $212.5m ests (0.2% beat)

• Net profit after tax up 39.2% to $115.2m vs. $113.7m ests (1.3% beat)

• Final dividend of 30 cps, full-year dividend of 55 cps

• ‘The majority of the contracts that we signed were in the second half of the year and will come on stream this coming year and beyond, so there is a very sizeable revenue pathway in front of us."

• "We now have around 10% of the total addressable market in the US which is material, but it also means there is plenty of scope for further growth."

• ‘We continue to see Cloud as a strategic advantage for us, as our competition has not been able to re- engineer their systems to fully take advantage of cloud and have had to resort to hybrid options which we feel is a backward step."

Pro Medicus opened the session down around 1.5% and quickly rallied to a ~7% gain in the first 30 minutes of trade.

Source: Pro Medicus intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Ventia Services bounces back to breakeven

[1:39 pm] A wild swing into positive territory for Ventia Services. This highlights some of the volatility we're seeing in high-flying names trading around record highs.

Ventia briefly opened 6% lower, recouped half the dip by ~10:15 am and back to breakeven by 11:45 am. The company reported a relatively soft set of numbers for FY25, with the rally likely supported by the FY25 guidance upgrade and higher buyback.

• Revenue down 1.5% to $3.0bn vs. $3.27bn ests (8.3% miss)

• EBITDA up 2.8% to $252.6m vs. $263m ests (4.0% miss)

• EBITDA margin of 8.3% vs. 8.0% ests (30 bp beat)

• NPATA up 11.9% to $119.4m vs. $121m consensus (1.3% miss)

• Interim dividend of 10.7 cps

• Buyback program increased by $50m to $150m

• FY25 NPATA upgraded to 10-12% growth vs. prior 7-10% vs. 10.1% ests (90 bp beat)

Source: Ventia Services intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Australia unemployment rate edges lower

[1:35 pm] A relatively in-line set of numbers for July employment data.

• Jobs rose by 24,500 vs. market expectations of 25,000

• Unemployment rate down to 4.2% from 4.3% last month

• Participation rate eased to 67% from 67.1% last month

• Full time jobs jumped 62,700, reversing last month's large 36,700 dip

"The labour market data is basically running in line with the Reserve Bank’s forecasts. While the unemployment rate is low, the trend up in unemployment is in line with soft GDP growth over the last 12-18 months and supports the rate cuts that we have had this year," says AMP economist, My Bui.

"We see another 25 basis point rate cut occurring in November, February 2025 and May 2025 which would see the cash rate end at 2.85% and this is more or less as financial markets are also expecting."

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Here come some updates

[1:31 pm] Here come a flurry of posts as we wrap up the blog.

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Origin FY25 earnings call highlights

[12:07 pm] Origin Energy has also wrapped up their earnings call. Here's what I found interesting:

• EBITDA guidance for 2026 upgraded due to investment in non-UK retail and energy services optimisation.

• Proceeds from Kraken separation to be allocated based on optimal capital deployment decisions.

• Electricity portfolio margins expected to remain strong, supported by the Eraring operation and new battery integrations.

• Equity contributions to Octopus Energy not planned; focus stays on strategic growth initiatives.

• Leverage ratio expected between 2–3x, influenced by battery investments and deferred APLNG dividends.

• Dividend policy targets stability with potential per-share growth, maintaining >80% payout of adjusted free cash flow.

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Telstra FY25 earnings call highlights

[12:05 pm] Telstra just wrapped up their FY25 earnings call. Here are the key takeaways:

• FY26 EBITDA guidance supports Connected Future 30 ambitions, with no major headcount changes planned.

• Mobile subscriber momentum remains in line with expectations, despite competitive pricing from Vodafone and Optus.

• Capital management includes a $1bn buyback in FY26, with sustainable and growing dividends prioritised.

• Postpaid net adds are subdued in a competitive market, with the focus on integrated customer offerings.

• International business is refocusing on connectivity and undersea cables, exiting the majority of net services.

• 5G trials at Digicel are underway, with CapEx already accounted for and no significant short-term increase expected.

• Cash EBIT guidance excludes the NBN true-up, highlighting strong cash growth and positive operating leverage.

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Analysts take on CBA

[10:37 am] CBA shares tumbled 5.4% on Wednesday despite its FY25 results falling broadly in-line with market expectations. The selloff may have reflected stretched valuations and the lack of earnings upgrades.

• Net profit after tax $10.25bn vs. ests $10.25bn (in line)

• Total dividend $4.85 vs. ests $4.84 (+0.2% beat)

• Net interest margin 2.08% vs. ests 2.08% (in line)

• CET1 ratio 12.3% vs. ests 12.2% (+0.1 pts beat)

• Return on equity 13.5% vs. ests 13.7% (-0.2 pts miss)

After running the ruler on yesterday's numbers, here's what analysts have to say:

• Morgan Stanley retained Underweight, raised target to $131 from $129. Headline result met expectations but lacked upside; high valuation leaves little room for operational missteps, though margin support from deposit repricing offsets some competitive pressure.

• UBS retained Sell, raised target to $125 from $120. Wholesale banking strength masked retail softness; ongoing NIM compression and premium valuation make earnings upgrades necessary to justify the stock.

• JPMorgan retained Underweight, target $120. Sharp share price fall reflects stretched pre-result expectations; cost growth disappointing and declining retail market share signals peers are closing the gap.

• Jefferies retained Underperform, lowered target to $137.12 from $138.65. Softer result reliant on trading gains, margin pressure from lower rates, and sustained expense growth from tech investment and inflation.

• Macquarie retained Underperform, target $105. Underlying earnings momentum softening; AI investment strengthens tech lead but benefits are delayed, while valuation remains detached from fundamentals.

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Top losers in early trade

[10:31 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 losers in early trade.

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A closer look at top gainers

[10:26 am] Based on some of the numbers we reported below vs. analyst estimates:

• Origin Energy, opened slightly higher, now ripping. The numbers were pretty clean, with an NPAT beat and in-line dividend. FY26 guidance for Energy Market earnings also positive. This also follows a massive miss from AGL on Wednesday.

• Temple & Webster, bit surprised by the gap up. Its chopping around that 6% level. Mixed result, with analysts saying the FY25 miss was driven by revenue recognition timing. But margins and FY26 trading update very positive. The stock is now up more than 105% year-to-date.

• Pro Medicus: Opened slightly lower and V-shaped into positive territory. Surprised by the strength given the result was only a marginal beat. Heading into results, PME was ~10% off its mid-July record high. So that may have helped with positioning, as opposed to trading at all-time highs and fading on results.

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Top gainers in early trade

[10:22 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers in early trade.

Origin Energy, Temple & Webster, Pro Medicus, Orora and Westpac are all on the move after reporting FY25 earnings (Q3 results for WBC).

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Big four bank volatility

[10:18 am] Price action in the financials sector this morning points to a sharp rotation out of Commonwealth Bank of Australia and into its peers. Westpac has jumped more than 6% to trade above $36 – its highest level in a decade – after reporting a 5% lift in third-quarter cash profit to A$1.9 billion, driven by higher margins and modest growth in lending and deposits.

The result beat last year’s A$1.8 billion. National Australia Bank and ANZ Group are also firmer, each up more than 1.5%, while CBA is down 0.4% to $168.46.

By Vishal Teckchandani

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Pro Medicus FY25 results: Another year of >30% growth

[9:50 am] Pro Medicus delivered another bumper year of growth, though numbers were relatively in-line with lofty analyst expectations.

• Revenue up 31.9% to $213m vs. $212.5m ests (0.2% beat)

• Net profit after tax up 39.2% to $115.2m vs. $113.7m ests (1.3% beat)

• Final dividend of 30 cps, full-year dividend of 55 cps

• Cash up 35.5% to $210.7m

• Record year for new contract wins, contract renewals and sale of additional modules to existing clients

‘We continue to see Cloud as a strategic advantage for us, as our competition has not been able to re- engineer their systems to fully take advantage of cloud and have had to resort to hybrid options which we feel is a backward step," said CEO Dr Sam Hupert.

“Whilst we have had an unprecedented year in terms of converting opportunities into sales, our pipeline remains strong with new opportunities spanning all key market segments including Academic Medical Centres, IDNs and the private market."

An interesting table from Morgan Stanley estimates and how they expect the share price to react.

Source: Morgan Stanley | July 2025

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Pro Medicus (PME)

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Orora FY25 results: Broad beat, mixed outlook

[9:40 am] Orora's FY25 results broadly beat market expectations, with the $1.8 billion sale of its OPS business completed in December 2024 resulting in massive debut reduction. There was a comment about EBIT growth in FY26 that leaves room for interpretation ...

• Revenue up 23.4% to $2.09bn vs. $2.08bn ests (0.5% beat)

• EBITDA up 18.2% to $418.8m

• EBIT up 8.5% to $262.1m vs. $253.1m ests (3.6% beat)

• NPAT up 17% to $151.1m vs. $148.7m ests (1.6% beat)

• Full-year dividend of 10 cps vs. Citi ests of 9.9 cps (1.0% beat)

• Net debt of $254.2m (FY24: $1.73bn) vs. Citi ests of $308m (17.5% better than ests)

FY26 outlook:

• Cans EBIT to be higher than FY25, "Volume growth in FY26 expected to be consistent with long-term industry growth rates with demand driven by substrate shift and growth of new categories." (vs. Citi ests of 3.8% y/y growth)

• Saverglass EBIT to be broadly in-line with FY25

• Volume growth and cost reduction initiatives to support higher EBITDA

• Additional corporate costs previously allocated to OPS, and higher depreciation will temper group EBIT growth in FY26 (vs. Citi ests of 6.7% y/y growth)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Orora (ORA)

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NextDC increase senior debt facilities to $6.4 billion

[9:28 am] NextDC has secured new senior debt facilities totalling $3.5 billion, lifting total facility limits to $6.4 billion, with an average loan maturity profile of 5.6 years.

"This strong financial flexibility enables us to confidently deliver on our record contracted capacity pipeline while maintaining our industry-leading momentum. These new facilities further empower NEXTDC to expedite the expansion of our data centre footprint to meet the rapidly rising demand for AI and cloud infrastructure across the Asia Pacific region," said CEO Craig Scroggie.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: NextDC (NXT)

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Temple & Webster FY25 results

[9:24 am] Temple & Webster is another high-flying stock that's exactly doubled year-to-date. It reported a relatively mixed FY25 and a strong start to FY26. Here are key numbers vs. consensus:

• Revenue up 20.7% to $600.7m vs. $606.4m ests (0.9% miss)

• Gross profit up 19.3% to $198.1m vs. $204.6m ests (3.2% miss)

• Gross margin down 38 bps to 33.0% vs. 33.7% ests (77 bp miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 43.9% to $18.8m vs. $17.9m ests (5% beat)

• NPAT up 532% to $11.3m vs. $12.0m ests (5.9% miss)

• Cash balance of $144m with no debt

TPW said "the new financial year has started strongly, with revenue from 1 July to 11 August 2025 up 28% year-on-year. Home improvement continues to outperform."

"FY25 was a touch softer on revenue impacted by the timing of revenue recognition. However, EBITDA profitability was 5% ahead of market expectations with a margin of 3.1% above the top end of TPW's guidance range (1-3%) ... The company is now guiding to FY26 margins of 3-5%, which is consistent with consensus expectations of 4.3%. Overall a good result, that reveals both growth and margin expansion," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Temple & Webster (TPW)

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Ventia Services FY25 results: Full-year guidance upgrade, lifts buy-back program

[9:15 am] Ventia reported a relatively soft set of numbers vs. analyst expectations, though margins were strong. Though the company's upgraded full-year outlook is tracking slightly ahead of estimates. Its worth noting the stock is up 44% year-to-date, trading near record highs.

Here are the key numbers vs. Macquarie ests:

• Revenue down 1.5% to $3.0bn vs. $3.27bn ests (8.3% miss)

• EBITDA up 2.8% to $252.6m vs. $263m ests (4.0% miss)

• EBITDA margin of 8.3% vs. 8.0% ests (30 bp beat)

• NPATA up 11.9% to $119.4m vs. $121m consensus (1.3% miss)

• Interim dividend of 10.7 cps

• Buyback program incrased by $50m to $150m

• FY25 NPATA upgraded to 10-12% growth vs. prior 7-10% vs. 10.1% ests (90 bp beat)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ventia Services (VNT)

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Origin Energy FY25 results

[9:09 am] There was a little visibility heading into the result, given Origin's June quarter report (31-Jul) and FY25 guidance update (26-May). Here are some of the key numbers vs. UBS ests:

• Underlying profit of $1.49bn vs. $1.43bn ests (4.2% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA of $3.41bn vs. $3.38bn ests (0.9% beat)

• Full-year dividend of 60 cents per share vs. 60 cps ests (in-line)

FY26 guidance included:

• Energy markets EBITDA between $1.40-1.70bn vs. Citi ests of $1.50bn (3.3% beat)

• APLNG production 635-680PJ

• LNG trading gains A$100-150m

• Capex $800m-1.10bn

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Origin Energy (ORG)

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Telsta FY25 results: Soft numbers, mixed guidance

[9:01 am] A few conflicting numbers here. It's also worth noting that Telstra has rallied around 22% year-to-date. This reporting season has seen several high-flying, market favourites (CBA, QBE Insurance, JB Hi-Fi) sell off on relatively in-line numbers. It'll be interesting to see if Telstra faces the same fate.

Here are the key numbers vs. Macquarie ests:

• Underlying NPAT up 1.8% to $2.3bn vs. $2.28bn ests (0.9% beat)

• Reported EPS up 34% to 18.9 cents per share vs. 19.95 cps ests (5.3% miss)

• Total dividend up 5.6% to 19 cents per share vs. 19.95 cps ests (4.8% miss)

• On-market buy-back of up to $1bn, expected to commence after 8-Sep

Telstra also provided guidance for FY26:

• Underlying EBITDAaL (after lease amortisation) of $8.15-8.45bn vs. $9.00bn consensus (7.8% miss at the midpoint)

• Cash EBIT of $4.55-4.75bn vs. $4.25bn consensus (9.4% beat at the midpoint)

• Business-as-usual capex of $3.2-3.5bn

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Telstra (TLS)

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Suncorp FY25 results: Broad beat, strong dividend

[8:49 am] Another insurer reporting massive year-on-year growth, with net profit after tax up 52.2% to $1.82 billion, though this was boosted by a $252 million one-off gain from the sale of Suncorp Bank and $99 million for New Zealand Life. Here are the ky numbers:

• Cash NPAT $1.49bn vs. ests $1.48bn (+0.7% beat)

• Reported NPAT $1.82bn vs. ests $1.67bn (+9.0% beat)

• GWP $15.01bn vs. ests $15.19bn (-1.2% miss)

• Final dividend of 49 cents per share vs. Citi ests of 43 cents (13.9% beat)

• Intends to undertake an on-market share buy-back of up to $400m in FY26, commencing September 2025

Suncorp guided to mid-single digit GWP growth in FY26 and expects underlying insurance trading ratio to be in the top of the 10-12% range. Citi forecasts have FY26 GWP growth sitting at 4.1%.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Suncorp (SUN)

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Bessent urges Fed to cut 50 bps

[8:40 am] Speaking on Bloomberg last night, Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated a 50bp cut in September is on the table, with rates ideally 150–175bp lower, suggesting a much more dovish stance than current market pricing. Here are the key takeaways from the interview:

• Blames data quality for delayed cuts. Claimed rate reductions might have happened earlier if government economic data had been more accurate, hinting at frustration with official statistics.

• Pushback on reduced data frequency. Opposes moving payroll reports from monthly to quarterly, underscoring the importance of timely labour market data for policy decisions.

• No return to QE. Dismissed the need for large-scale asset purchases, indicating future easing will likely rely on rate cuts rather than balance sheet expansion.

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:28 am] ASX 200 futures are up 31pts (+0.35%) after a strong overnight lead – it doesn't get any better than this.

• S&P 500 (+0.32%) and Nasdaq (+0.14%) at record highs

• Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.43%) on the verge of a fresh all-time high, its outperformance suggests strong breadth

• Dow (+1.04%) strength highlights a broadening rally

• Russell 2000 (+1.98%) now up a little over 5.0% in the last two days

I've been interstate for the past three days so the blog has been a little slow, but today, we're going to try to cover as much as humanly possible. Let's get it.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.