Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another record high + Telstra, Pro Medicus earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 31pts (+0.35%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged another all-time high

• Strength beneath the hood was overwhelming positive, with soaring small caps and a rotation into defensives/value

• Massive day for August reporting season, with several high-profile names due to report this morning

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher amid a relatively rangebound session (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continuing to push all-time highs

• Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.43%) recorded its best day since May, closed just shy of 25-Jul record high

• Russell 2000 logged another standout session, up 5.0% in the last two days 

• Today’s big story – A very uneventful session with very few catalysts, market continues to grind higher on the back of accelerating Fed easing expectations, strong Q2 earnings tailwind, low volatility and broadening market rally

• Fed rate cut conviction grows with traders pricing in chance of a 50 bp cut in September (BBG)

• Investors pivoting to fundamentally strong and defensive S&P 500 stocks amid concerns over market stability (BBG)

• Global ex-US equity funds saw record inflows in July as investors seek diversification amid US economic concerns (RT)

• Global hedge funds boosted exposure to Japanese equities as Nikkei hits all-time high, while shorting South Korea (RT)

• Japan 5-year bond auction draws soft demand with bid-cover lowest since 2020 (BBG)

• IEA says global oil markets set for a record surplus in 2026 as demand slows and supplies soars (BBG)

STOCKS

• Apple planning an AI revamp with new devices, including robots, home security, and smart displays (BBG)

• Oracle cutting jobs in cloud unit, boosting cost control efforts amid heavy AI infrastructure spend (BBG)

• Crypto exchange Bullish rises sharply after its IPO (CNBC)

• CoreWeave operating profit guidance falls short of estimates as company ramps up capex (BBG)

• Tencent's quarterly revenue rises 15% due to AI investments and strong gaming performance (CNBC)

TARIFFS

• Bessent mentions upcoming China meetings, downplays fentanyl tariff relief and investment (BBG)

• Bessent says several major trade agreements still waiting to be finalised, India has been "recalcitrant" in talks (RT)

• China's open-source AI models gaining global popularity, raising concerns among US companies and policymakers (WSJ)

• India and China make series of concessions as they look to improve ties amid Trump's broadsides (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bessent suggests a 50 bp rate cut in September due to abrupt negative payroll revisions (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Australian wage inflation elevated after RBA warned of low productivity and labor market tightness (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Today is absolutely stacked for corporate earnings. We will analyse these results on the Live Blog, including consensus estimates and key takeaways.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Massive US session: Markets may seem a little frothy, but the path of least resistance still seems to be higher. The overnight session was overwhelming positive, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs, but also strong breadth from the Equal-weight S&P 500, small caps and defensive Dow. From a sector perspective, Materials, Healthcare, Discretionary and Energy all finished up more than 1.0% overnight.

BROKER MOVES

• APA Group downgraded to Sell from Neutral but target up to $7.50 from $7.0 (UBS)

• Bravura Solutions downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $2.03 from $3.17 (MQG)

• Coronado Global downgraded to Sell from Neutral but target up to $0.26 from $0.17 (UBS)

• Treasury Wine Estates downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $8.70 from $10.75 (TWE)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 14 Aug: Dicker Data (DDR) – $0.11, Korvest (KOV) – $0.50, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Reckon (RKN) – $0.025, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $2.268, Scentre Group (SCG) – $0.088, WAM Income Maximiser (WMX) – $0.002

• Fri 15 Aug: Platinum Asia Investments (PAI) – $0.199

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (CLW) 

• Earnings: ASX (ASX), Bell Financial Group (BFG), Growthpoint Properties (GOZ), HomeCo Daily Needs (HDN), Navigator Global (NGI), Orora (ORA), Origin Energy (ORG), Pro Medicus (PME), Suncorp (SUN), Telstra (TLS), Temple & Webster (TPW), Ventia Services (VNT)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate (Jul)

• 4:00 pm: UK Q2 GDP

• 10:30 pm: US PPI (Jul)