Evening Wrap: ASX 200 nears record levels as miners and energy stocks rally, Paladin Energy and Telix smashed

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 60.0 points higher, up 0.69%.

In a nutshell:

• ASX 200 closed up 0.7% to 8734.20 points, marking its second-best close on record and within striking distance of Friday's all-time high of 8,757

• Materials sector led broad-based gains with iron ore miners surging as Singapore futures hit five-month highs, while 74% of ASX 200 constituents closed flat or higher

• Major banks staged a recovery from recent losses with strong support from ANZ (+2.5%) and Westpac (+1.4%), though Commonwealth Bank (+0.5%) remained subdued after its recent 10% correction

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed up 60.0 points (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 closed within 0.1% of last Friday's record close

• Iron ore miners powered higher with Fortescue Metals up 2.3%, Rio Tinto gaining 1% and BHP advancing 0.9% as iron ore futures jumped 2.2% overnight to US$105.65 a tonne - the highest level since February

• Energy stocks rallied despite oil weakness led by Woodside Energy (+1.5%) after reporting strong Q2 production of 50 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 2% with improved cost guidance

• Whitehaven Coal surged 6.5% as the best performer on the ASX 200, benefiting from Chinese officials cracking down on coking coal overproduction

• Telix Pharmaceuticals plunged 15.1% to nine-month lows after the US Securities and Exchange Commission issued a subpoena seeking information about disclosure related to prostate cancer therapy development

• Paladin Energy tumbled 11.3% as investors questioned production and sales targets for its flagship Langer Heinrich Mine, with FY26 guidance missing analyst expectations

• Insurance Australia Group jumped 3.2% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy, citing improved earnings resilience and upside risks to consensus forecasts

• Other pockets of strength include homebuilders (James Hardie +5.1%), graphite (Syrah Resources (+6.4%), gold (Alkane, Ramelius up 4-5%)

• All-in-all, the market is looking strong as volatility remains low and leadership begins to broaden beyond Financials. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index just broke out to its highest level since Oct-24, while the Materials Index is on a five-day win streak (up 6.2%) and made a convincing move above the key 200-day moving average.

• Markets still hovering highs and waiting for more catalysts, notably megacap US tech earnings and the 1-Aug reciprocal tariff deadline.

Economy

• US-Japan trade deal announced with President Trump setting a 15% reciprocal tariff rate and Japan committing to invest US$550 billion in the US, easing tariff concerns and boosting Japanese markets

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed he will meet Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for trade talks, signaling a likely extension to the August 12 deadline for China negotiations

• Australian online shopping surged 15% in the June quarter to $19.2 billion compared to 2024, with 7.9 million households making purchases as rate cut expectations opened wallets

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +10.54% Peter Warren Automotive Holdings Ltd (PWR) – Trading update

• +9.52% 29METALS Ltd (29M) – No news, copper prices hit record highs overnight

• +8.33% Syrah Resources Ltd (SYR) – Removes Balama force majeure

• +7.26% Australian Ethical Investment Ltd (AEF) – No news

• +7.01% Elsight Ltd (ELS) – Completed capital raise at $1.70 per new share

• +6.82% Sayona Mining Ltd (SYA) – No news

• +6.53% Whitehaven Coal Ltd (WHC) – Coal sector rally

Trading lower

• -13.65% TELIX Pharmaceuticals Ltd (TLX) – Q2 update, US SEC subpoena

• -10.89% Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) – Q4 update, FY26 guidance miss

• -8.04% Fleetpartners Group Ltd (FPR) – Q3 update

Broker Notes

Life360 Inc (360)

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.00 from $27.10

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

Astral Resources NL (AAR)

• Initiated at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.38

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.35

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.90

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.60 from $20.35

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.70 from $45.40

Autosports Group (ASG)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.82 from $2.00

Bapcor (BAP)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.85

Betmakers Technology Group (BET)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.23

Credit Clear (CCR)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.44

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $22.50 from $18.50

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.31

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90 from $0.80

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.17

Downer EDI (DOW)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.87 from $6.50

Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.63 from $0.54

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.24

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.36

Genetic Signatures (GSS)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.75

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.50 from $9.30

Insignia Financial (IFL)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.21

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.00

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.20

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.20

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.23

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $22.98 from $25.86

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $10.25

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.15

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.17

MAAS Group Holdings (MGH)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.95

Metro Mining (MMI)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.17

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.83 from $17.40

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.65

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.10

Pantoro Gold (PNR)

• Upgraded to Hold from Sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.15 from $2.30

Pepper Money (PPM)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.89

Praemium (PPS)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.00

Perpetual (PPT)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $22.80

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.80 from $24.60

Qoria (QOR)

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.60

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.56

• Upgraded to Outperform from UNKNOWN at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.60

• Upgraded to Buy from UNKNOWN at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $0.75

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $120.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.90

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.10 from $4.30

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00 from $9.00

Sheffield Resources (SFX)

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.20

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

• Upgraded to Accumulate from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.70

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.25

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.22 from $1.86

Strickland Metals (STK)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.42 from $0.36

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.50

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $34.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $36.00

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.50

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.68

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.70

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.42 from $5.00

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.00

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.40

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $6.10

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.77 from $15.85

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $135.00 from $122.50

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