ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 23rd July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 23. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 nears record highs

[3:00 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading 67 pts higher (+0.78%) and within 0.1% of last Friday's record close. Here are some of the key highlights from today's session:

• Strong breadth: 144 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (72%) are trading flat or higher

• Materials strength: The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index is on a five day win streak, up 6.5%. Heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue currently up 0.9%, 1.1% and 1.9% respectively

• Financials holding up: A strong move for the Materials sector has typically coincided with weakness in Financials. This was not the case today. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index is up 0.88%, though Commonwealth Bank (+0.50%) is underperforming the sector

• Telix smashed: Telix (-13%) tumbled to a near 9-month low after being hit with a US SEC subpoena seeking documents and information relating to its disclosures regarding development of prostate cancer therapeutic candidates and a Jefferies target price cut (from $34.50 to $34.00)

• Paladin Energy misses FY26 ests: Paladin (-12%) reported a mixed June quarter and FY25 production report, but its FY26 missed on most fronts.

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Small caps making moves

[1:55 pm] Here are the small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) making moves in afternoon trade.

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Chinese lithium futures fade

[1:00 pm] Chinese lithium carbonate futures briefly rallied 2.7% to 74,580 yuan a tonne at 11:23 am AEST but currently down 4.0% to 69,500 yuan.

This is driving substantial volatility for local lithium names, with Pilbara Minerals down 2.0% despite rallying as much as 5.0% in early trade.

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Coal stocks extend surge

[12:04 pm] Coal stocks have been running hard amid a sharp spike in coking coal prices. Key drivers include:

• Monday: coking coal futures jumped by more than 6% after the Market Committee of the China Coking Industry Association held a special market meeting to raise prices.

• Tuesday: Coking coal futures hit limit up in China after China's national energy administration issued a verification notice, ordering all coal mines that have exceeded production quotas to suspend production.

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Lovisa's store rollout may beat expectations

[11:53 am] Citi is seeing increasing risk that Lovisa could beat store rollout expectations at the upcoming FY25 result, with their latest analysis of store location data suggesting there were 1,039 stores at the end of the period vs. consensus of 1,004.

"We think this could support the share price near-term, particularly with a large proportion of store openings in the last two months being in the US," the report said.

However, the analysts retained a Sell rating and even cut their target price from $25.86 to $22.98.

"While we acknowledge the potential for short-term share price upside, we remain comfortable with our Sell rating, as we see risks to long-term rollout expectations given potential operational issues in newer growth markets," noted the analysts.

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Citi raises Charter Hall target

[11:50 am] Citi says the macro backdrop has "shifted drastically for Charter Hall in the last few months with rate cuts driving investor interest back in property domestically and globally."

"We have seen anecdotal evidence of this with Charter Hall and its local competitors being active in fund raising in 2025 YTD for a range of strategies," they said, adding that, "we therefore reflect upside to FUM and earnings forecasts for CHC over the next few years."

The analysts remain Buy rated on Charter Hall and lifted the target price from $18.50 to $22.50.

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Top losers in early trade

[11:03 am] Here are the S&P/ASX 200 stocks experiencing the largest decline in early trade. Telix and Paladin both tumbled on poor trading updates, meanwhile growth-oriented names like Neuren, Pro Medicus and GQG Partners are trading lower.

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Top gainers in early trade

[11:01 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers in early trade. James Hardie tops the leaderboards after a broad-based rally for US homebuilding stocks overnight, meanwhile resource stocks spanning coal, aluminium, gold and iron ore continue to trend higher.

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Karoon CEO to leave by mid-2026

[10:43 am] Karoon advised that its CEO Dr Julian Fowles will be leaving the company by mid-2026 as part of a broader business decision to relocate key corporate teams and roles to Brazil and the US.

"Following discussions with the Board, Julian will not be relocating as part of the planned transition of key corporate roles," said Chairman Peter Botten.

A global search process to appoint a Houston-based CEO is currently underway. Dr Fowles will remain as CEO until the appointment of a new CEO, or the end of 2025. He will then serve a notice period through to mid-2026.

Karoon was trading 1.3% higher prior to the news (10:15 am AEST), and now down around 2.0%.

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Paladin tumbles on FY26 guidance miss

[10:25 am] Paladin reported relatively in-line production numbers for the June quarter and FY25, but FY26 forecasts broadly missed expectations.

Here are the key numbers vs. Macquarie estimates (Apr-25):

• U308 production of 4.0-4.4Mlb vs. 4.51Mlb ests (6.9% miss at the midpoint)

• U308 sales of 3.8-4.2Mlb vs. 4.39Mlb ests (8.9% miss)

• Unit costs of US$44-48/lb vs. US$34.74/lb ests (32.4% above forecasts)

• Capex of US$26-32m vs. US$45m ests (35.6% below estimates)

Paladin shares are currently down 8.5%.

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Telix slides to 9-month low

[10:11 am] Telix opened 6.8% lower and currently down 16% to the lowest level since Nov-24. The US SEC formally requested the company to provide certain documents and information, relating to the development of its prostate cancer therapeutic candidates.

Analysts at Jefferies cut their target price from $34.00 to $34.50 earlier this morning.

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Peter Warren rallies on trading update

[10:07 am] Shares in Peter Warren Automotive rallied 9.5% in early trade after the company said it expects to deliver $22 million in underlying profit before tax for FY25.

"The improved earnings relative to prior expectations reflects an increase in seasonality from end-of- financial-year marketing campaigns as well as actions to optimise inventory and costs," the company said in a statement.

The rally brings the stocks year-to-date returns into positive territory, up 4.8%.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Peter Warren (PWR)

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Plenti Group reports another record quarter

[9:54 am] Plenty reported its third consecutive quarter of record loan originations, up 44% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to $437 million. Key numbers from the update include:

• Loan portfolio up 21% year-on-year to $2.7 billion

• Annualised net credit losses of 94 bps vs. 130 bps a year ago and 116 bps in the prior quarter

• 90+ day arrears of 49 bps at quart end, up from 43 bps a quarter ago but up from 59 bps last year

• Quarterly revenue up 20% year-on-year to $73.3 million

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Plenti Group (PLT)

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Iluka Resources reports higher 2H25 mineral sands production

[9:46 am] Iluka Resources reported 280,400 tonnes of zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile (Z/R/SR) production for the second half of 2025, up 22.7% year-on-year. Despite strong production, sales revenue for the minerals fell 8% year-on-year to $558 million.

For the June quarter, the company reported Z/R/SR production of 149,700 tonnes vs. 127,200 consensus. While quarterly mineral sands revenue of $298 million fell short of $323 million consensus. Overall, a strong operational outcome, with weak mineral sands pricing weighing on revenue expectations.

The company said the development of its Balranald rutile project is progressing to schedule, while its Eneabba rare earths project is making progress towards its 2027 commissioning target.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Iluka Resources (ILU)

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Paladin Energy reports Q4 production

[9:30 am] Paladin Energy reported a solid June quarter production report, including:

• U3O8 production up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter to 993,843 lb

• U3O8 sales volume down 18.6% to 710,051 lb

• Average realised price down 20.5% to $55.6/lb

• Cost of production down 7.6% to $37.5/lb

For FY25, the company delivered:

• U3O8 production of 3.0Mlb vs. Macquarie estimates of 2.76Mlb

• U308 sales of 2.70Mlb vs. Macquarie estimates of 2.80Mlb

• Average realised price of US$65.7/lb vs. Macquarie estimates of US$68.9/lb

Paladin said it expects the operational ramp-up of Langer Heinrich by the end of FY26, and full mining and processing plant operations by FY27.

Langer Heinrich is forecast to produce U308 production of 4.0-4.4Mlb and sales of 3.8-4.2Mlb.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Paladin Energy (PDN)

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Woodside reports strong Q2 production

[9:19 am] Woodside reported stronger-than-expected Q2 production figures, while guiding to higher FY25 output at lower costs. The key numbers to note include:

• Q2 production volume of 50.1 MMboe vs. 49.6 MMboe ests (1.0% beat)

• Q2 sales volume of 54.4 MMboe vs. 51.7 MMboe ests (5.2% beat)

• Q2 sales revenue of US$3.28bn vs. US$3.21bn ests (2.2% beat)

• FY25 production guidance narrowed to 188-195 MMboe vs. prior guidance of 186-196 MMboe (0.3% upgrade at the midpoint)

• FY25 unit production cost range lowered to US$8.0-8.5 per boe

• FY25 capex of $4.5-5.0bn unchanged

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Syrah Resources removes Balama forced majeure

[9:07 am] Syrah says the loading of 10,000 tonnes of natural graphite fines is expected to be completed this week, and the shipment will sail to an ex-China market destination.

Last month, Syrah recommenced natural graphite production at its Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique.

The stock is up 39% in the past month after the US announced plans to impose a 93.5% anti-dumping levy on Chinese graphite.

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Telix reports Q2 revenue, subpoena from SEC

[8:59 am] Telix reported Q2 revenue growth of 63% year-on-year to US$204 million vs. $205.5 million estimates. The company also reaffirmed its FY25 revenue guidance of US$770-800 million and R&D expenditure growth of 20-25% year-on-year.

In the same announcement, the company flagged that the SEC is seeking various documents and information relating to its disclosures regarding the development of the company's prostate cancer therapeutic candidates.

Telix says its fully cooperating with the SEC and reiterates that at this stage, the matter is a fact-finding request.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Telix (TLX)

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Amotiv provides unaudited FY25 results

[8:55 am] Amotiv has pre-released its FY25 results, including:

• FY25 EBITDA of approximately $192m, representing a 1% decline on the prior year vs. $193.7m consensus

• Revenue to be marginally ahead year-on-year, in-line with market expectations

• To record non-cash write down of $180-190m for APG business

The company said it adopted a more cautious long-term growth outlook for the APG business, driven by:

• An anticipated moderation in Australia’s new vehicle sales and lower forecast vehicle mix

• A moderation in the New Zealand outlook, with macroeconomic conditions and sales mix expected to remain challenging for longer

• A more conservative view of future cyclical growth in Caravan/RV, foreign exchange impacts and potential US tariffs

To add some perspective, Amotiv already guided to weak earnings back in April. The stock sold off 16% (4-Apr) after the company said it anticipates marginal growth for FY25 revenue and an EBITDA decline (vs. prior expectations of 'growth').

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Amotiv (AOV)

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Gold stocks set to soar

[8:50 am] Gold is nearing all-time highs again, with prices up 1.03% overnight to US$3,429 an ounce (vs. 6-May record of US$3,437 and brief US$3,500 on 22-Apr).

This drove a strong response for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) overnight, up 2.7% to the highest level since September 2012.

Local gold miners finished broadly higher on Tuesday, after gold prices rallied 1.4% in the previous session.

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S&P 500 narrowly higher, breadth strong

[8:46 am] A somewhat odd overnight session, where markets rotated from growth to value.

• S&P 500 (+0.06%) narrowly closed at all-time highs

• Nasdaq (-0.39%) snapped a six-day win streak, largely due to weakness from Broadcom (-3.3%) and Nvidia (-2.5%)

• Equal-weight S&P 500 (+1.27%) was overwhelming positive, as markets rotated into sectors like Healthcare, Real Estate and Utilities

• Fairly quiet elsewhere, with Trump reiterating 1-Aug reciprocal tariff deadline

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Good morning!

[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 40pts (+0.46%) after the S&P 500 narrowly logged another all-time high overnight, while the Nasdaq snapped a six-day winning streak.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.