Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, Nasdaq snaps six-day win streak, Wall Street rotated from tech to value

ASX 200 futures are up 40pts (+0.46%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 narrowly logged another fresh all-time high

• Nasdaq snapped a six-day win streak as tech stock sold off

• Investors rotated into value (Healthcare, Real Estate and Utilities) overnight

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 marginally higher, recovered from early weakness (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels

• S&P 500 narrowly logged another fresh all-time high, while the Nasdaq snapped a six-day winning streak

• Breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the official benchmark by 121 bps

• Today’s big story – A big rotation from growth (Tech -1.0%) into value (Healthcare +1.9%, Real Estate +1.7%, Utilities +1.2%), while headlines on the tariff and earnings front were relatively quiet

• Global fund managers betting 'Trump put' to power US market through trade and geopolitical tensions (BBG)

• Kohl's shares surge 37% as it becomes Reddit's Wall Street Bets favorite meme stock (BBG)

• Weakening dollar helps US companies navigate Trump's tariffs this earnings season (RT)

STOCKS

• Apple's changes to its App Store rules and fees will likely secure approval from EU antitrust regulators (YF)

• Oracle, OpenAI expand US data center capacity with 4.5 gigawatts of Stargate infrastructure (CNBC)

• JPMorgan weighs lending directly against crypto assets next year as banks continue to embrace the market (FT)

• AstraZeneca plans a $50bn US expansion, including a new Virginia plant and R&D growth across several states (RT)

• Bessent calls for reforms to excessive bank capital requirements, urging regulators to reconsider Biden-era plans (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bessent says there is no need for Fed Chair Powell to step down, says his legacy should be to right-size the central bank's non-monetary policy functions (RT)

• Trump again calls Fed Chair Powell a "numbskull," noted he'll be out in eight months (RT)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• US is likely to extend trade deadline with China, says Bessent (CNBC)

• Copper shipments race to US as Trump's tariffs loom, upending global market (BBG)

• Trump announces US-Philippines trade deal, military agreement, tariff cuts to 19% from 20% (CNBC)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirms quality over timing in trade agreements ahead of 1-Aug tariff deadline (RT)

• Malaysia seeking reduced tariff rate but won't bend on US demands to extend EV tax breaks (BBG)

• India-US trade talks to miss 1-Aug deadline with pharma tariffs latest sticking point (RT)

ECONOMY

• Goldman Sachs forecasts slower US GDP of 1.1% through 2025 as tariffs impact inflation and consumer spending (CNBC)

• Beijing signals potential intervention in producer price wars, raising hopes for industrial capacity cuts to combat deflation (RT)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Amotiv guides to FY25 EBITDA of $192m vs. $193.7m consensus, to record non-cash writedown of APG business of $180-190m (AOV)

• Perpetual’s wealth management unit anticipated to garner bids between $450-550m, (The Aus)

• Telix reports unaudited Q2 revenue of $204m vs. $205m consensus, reaffirms FY25 revenue guidance of $770-800m, subpoena from SEC seeking various documents (TLX)

• Vulcan Energy approves two grants totaling €104 for its lithium projects, Germany-listed shares up 13.4% overnight (VUL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Value: A strong overnight rotation into sectors like Healthcare, Real Estate and Utilities. We could see this trend continue for local sectors. Names like CSL have already rallied ~9.5% since 14-Jul but still down around 7% year-to-date.

• Lithium: Chinese lithium carbonate futures rallied 2.7% on Tuesday to 72,880 yuan a tonne. Prices are now up around 25% from mid-June lows. Interestingly, Pilbara Minerals rallied 5.3% while names like Core Lithium and Liontown slumped 4-6%. It’ll be interesting to see how Chinese futures perform today (market opens at 11:00 am AEST)

• Gold, Copper: Gold prices nearing all-time highs again, up 1.0% overnight to US$3,429/oz, while copper hit another fresh record, up 2.2% to US$5.78/lb. Our overnight gold and copper miner ETFs both rallied 2.7%. This should drive some strong flows for local names.

• Commonwealth Bank: I wouldn’t be surprised if CBA continued to sell off today (down 5.5% in the last two sessions) amid BHP strength and a broader rotation into value.

BROKER MOVES

• Greatland Resources upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target remains $8.00 (CITI)

• Insurance Australia Group upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $9.50 from $9.30 (UBS)

• Meteoric Resources downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $0.16 from $0.17 (BP)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 23 Jul: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006 

• Thu 24 Jul: None

• Fri 25 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Australian Agricultural Co (AAC)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)

• 5:30 pm: Germany Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)

• 5:30 pm: UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)

• 10:15 pm: ECB Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 2.15%)

• 11:45 pm: US Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)