Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gains ahead of Trump's "earth shattering" announcement

It was only a modest gain on the benchmark ASX 200 today, but importantly, those gains were widespread with roughly three stocks rising for each stock falling – similar to yesterday's action. So, it does appear that there remains a gentle ebb of funds continuing to move into Aussie stocks.

Some heart was taken from a potential "earth shattering" (and let's assume positive) announcement touted to be inbound from President Trump overnight – but one can also understand why investors didn't completely commit today.

As we settle into this new normal of fewer really bad surprises (and the expectation of a few good ones), against the complete unknown of what damage has already been done to the global economy and its supply chains...investors must choose between a false sense of security or continued vigilance.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Lithium in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 13.4 points higher at 8,191.7, 0.45% from its session low and 0.24% from its high. Despite a quiet day at the benchmark level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a convincing margin for the third day in a row – this time a very tidy 201 to 80.

Gold stocks led the pack, doing something they haven’t done in recent memory – rise on a day when the gold price was lower overnight (and lower again in Asian trade). Not doubt, gold investors will take the gains any way they can get them, and they saw particularly strong performances in Aurum Resources (AUE) (+9.5%), Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+5.8%), and Southern Cross Gold (SX2) (+5.7%).

As suggested by the market breadth statistic above, the rest of the gains today were widespread. Wisetech Global Ltd (WTC) (+3.8%) was notable in a strong Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.3%), as was Computershare Ltd (CPU) (+3.1%) and Worley Ltd (WOR) (+3.2%) in an also robust Industrials (XNJ) (+1.7%) sector.

At the other end of the ledger, Health Care (XHJ) (-0.13%) slipped despite a strong performance from Pro Medicus Ltd (PME) (+3.4%), which rose after announcing another contract win in the USA. CSL (CSL) (-1.3%) seems to be the major drag in this sector.

Financials (XFJ) (-0.62%) also slipped, but this was largely due to Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) (-4.1%) going ex-dividend, as elsewhere ANZ Group (ANZ) (-1.9%) pared back after releasing its first half results – offset by National Australia Bank (NAB) (1.4%) which continued to rally after its corresponding release yesterday.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

The icing on top of the cherry on top of the cake 🧁 (click here for full size image)

A super interesting session in terms of the price action last night. It started consistent with our view that we were in a very minor pullback towards 17500 (the session low was 17503!), and then supply backed off, demand kicked in, and prices rose for most of the session.

They did, however, close modestly off the session high – but I propose Wednesday’s candle remains a decent demand-side showing.

It’s always reassuring to see excess demand where you expect to see it. For me, it tells me that my mode of thinking is roughly aligned with the underlying demand-supply dynamics ✅.

The downward pointing shadow of Wednesday’s candle confirms the zone between the 29-Apr candle high of 17500 and down to the low of the 30-Apr candle at 16959 is a credible zone of demand. Also hovering in that zone is the dynamic demand of the short term trend ribbon.

So, ditto from previous analysis with respect to my thesis that as long as the Comp continues to close above 16959-17500 there’s probably not a great deal to worry about.

If doesn’t…well, that will be interesting! And we’ll cross that bridge when we get there (not jumping off it screaming all the way down, mind you!).

In the meantime, it’s all very orderly here. Maybe too orderly…if that’s a thing! Because I find it’s right when you think you’re in tune with the market, that it has a surprise in store!

18049 is the key point of demand now. It sits nicely at the top of the long term trend ribbon. Still, even if we close above that, there’s two more important points of supply in quick succession – at 18282 and 18605.

I’ve said previously that a close above 18049 is sufficient to call a new bull market has begun, but a close above 18605 would really be the icing on top of the cherry on top of the cake 🧁.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

A little boring and predictable (click here for full size image)

Dare we say it’s all a little boring and predictable here? 🤔

Yep, famous last words 😵!

I almost don’t want to do any more analysis here so as not to jinx it…

V-Shaped recovery. Great price action (rising peaks & rising troughs – the last trough in particular shows a very little supply-side motivation), predominantly demand-side candles (white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows). Double green on my trend ribbons.

There’s very little not to like about the current set of XJO technicals, and very little to suggest that the supply-side has any major desire to let go of their holdings. It means they’re comfortable with their risk levels.

The demand-side is still nipping away, albeit at a more subdued rate over the few candles – but we can’t question their overall resolve. They too are comfortable with their risk levels / happy to conservatively add more.

If the supply-side is comfortable there’s no need to panic. And the demand-side is comfortable there’s no need to panic. Why should we 🤷?

So, we won’t. Staying the course here until we see otherwise, so:

• Large supply-side candles (i.e., long black-bodied and or long upward pointing shadows)

• Lower peaks (building supply)

• A close below the long term uptrend ribbon (currently kicking in around 8030-8080)

8241 is supply. A close above it would be another positive and likely set us up to probe 8353-8445.

Lithium Carbonate Futures (benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

This is what a wall of supply versus a demand vacuum looks like (click here for full size image)

Just a quick one here, because those who follow me on X know that I post my own, personally maintained charts of lithium minerals each evening.

But I wanted to highlight what a thing of beauty this chart is. Putting aside whether you’re long ASX lithium stocks or not, and if you’re a trend follower this is impossible (and has been for the better part of 2-years), one must appreciate the sheer consistency of this trend.

This is what a wall of supply versus a demand vacuum looks like. It is the epitome of consensus – the holy grail of trend followers.

This is because consensus breeds the longest and lowest volatility trends. It must, when you think about it.

Consider that a lack of consensus, on the other hand, can only breed indecision and equilibrium.

And all the narratives in the world cannot change these basic facts.

This chart is a fantastic reminder to trust the price and not the noise around us – that price is the only pure source of truth for investors who aren’t big enough to create sufficient demand or supply to move the market themselves (i.e., us!).

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 21:00 Bank of England Official Cash Rate: -0.25% to 4.25% forecast

Friday

• TBA CHN Trade Balance: +CNY 695 billion vs +CNY 737 billion previous

Saturday

• 11:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation April y/y

  • CPI: -0.2% p.a. forecast vs -0.1% p.a. in March

  • PPI: -2.6% p.a. forecast vs -2.5% p.a. in March

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +23.8% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.8% Webjet (WJL) – No news 🤔.

• +11.5% Polynovo (PNV) – No news since 07-May PolyNovo presents at Macquarie Australia Conference.

• +10.7% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +10.7% Maas Group (MGH) – Investor Presentation May 2025 - with guidance reaffirmed.

• +9.5% Aurum Resources (AUE) – RIU Investor Presentation, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +8.8% Generation Development Group (GDG) – BlackRock and Generation Life form strategic alliance.

• +8.4% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – Catalyst acquires Old Highway Gold Project, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.4% Orica (ORI) – Orica 2025 Half Year Results.

• +7.3% Weebit Nano (WBT) – No news 🤔.

• +6.8% Brightstar Resources (BTR) – High grade results continue in Sandstone drilling, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.8% Platinum Asset Management (PTM) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +5.8% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – May Corporate Presentation - Long Ore, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Southern Cross Gold (SX2) – SX2 Closes First Tranche of Private Placement, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +5.4% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.4% SRG Global (SRG) – No news, initiated at add at Morgans, price target $1.800, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.3% Credit Corp Group (CCP) – Investor Presentation - Market Update.

• +5.2% Syrah Resources (SYR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +5.0% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +4.7% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +4.3% Resolute Mining (RSG) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.3% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -9.7% Kelsian Group (KLS) – No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to Trading Update & Presentation Macquarie Conference 2025.

• -8.4% Light & Wonder (LNW) – LNW Q1 2025 Earnings release.

• -7.0% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -6.4% Chalice Mining (CHN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.1% Orthocell (OCC) – No news 🤔.

• -4.3% Larvotto Resources (LRV) – Presentation - RIU Sydney Resources Roundup.

• -4.1% Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) – No news, ex-dividend $0.76 fully franked.

• -3.9% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, likely responding to recent lithium price weakness (see ChartWatch section for details).

Broker Moves

• Life360 (360)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $28.60

• 4DMEDICAL (4DX)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.760 from $1.000

• Aussie Broadband (ABB)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.40

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $75.00

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

• Bega Cheese (BGA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.00

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.500 from $2.20

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.00

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $330.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $310.00

• Centaurus Metals (CTM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.800

• Cygnus Metals (CY5)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.300

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $8.00

• Firefly Metals (FFM)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.900

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.30

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $80.00 from $90.00

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.90

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $110.00

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $93.00 from $91.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $73.60

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $92.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $95.00 from $90.00

• Kelsian Group (KLS)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.60

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.80

• Lunnon Metals (LM8)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.600

• Minerals 260 (MI6)

  • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.00

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $30.50

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $33.90 from $32.70

  • Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $29.00 from $30.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $37.70 from $37.10

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $35.00 from $34.80

  • Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $28.01 from $29.07

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $33.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $37.50

• Nine Entertainment (NEC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.750 from $1.800

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.800

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $25.15 from $25.32

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.90

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.25

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.90

• Pro Medicus (PME)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $220.00

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.46 from $4.80

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.34

• Silex Systems (SLX)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.50

• SRG Global (SRG)

  • Initiated at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.800

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.20

• Transurban Group (TCL)

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $13.50

• Technology One (TNE)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $31.00 from $29.00

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $19.00 from $17.50

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $16.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.50

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.00 from $19.00

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $15.50

• Titan Minerals (TTM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.180

• Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.500 from $1.000

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $140.00

• Zip Co. (ZIP)

  • Initiated at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.50

Scans