Five things I learned from the market today – Wednesday, 7 May

The "things I Learned from the market today" is a daily series sharing insights from my coverage of the ASX 200 Live blog. It highlights key observations drawn from company announcements, analyst forecasts, and price action.

Respect the upgrade

AUB Group (ASX: AUB) upgraded its FY25 underlying NPAT guidance to the top end of its $190–200 million range, citing "favorable trading momentum."

I didn’t think much of the upgrade, since Macquarie’s February 2025 NPATA forecast of $195.9 million was close to the $197.5 million “top end,” a modest 0.8% above estimates. Yet, the market disagreed. AUB shares surged, briefly hitting all-time highs with the following price action:

• Open: +2.44% to $32.81

• High: +8.9% to $34.88

• Close: +6.0% to $33.96

And likewise, respect the downgrade

Nuix (ASX: NXL) withdrew its 11–16% Annualised Contract Value (ACV) growth target, alongside strategic revenue and cash flow goals, due to “growing uncertainty in customer decision-making” impacting deal closure timing. With a healthy deal pipeline but increased variability, the company opted for caution.

Nuix’s track record of disappointing updates — in November 2024, January 2025, and the February 2025 reporting season — has already eroded investor confidence, with the stock down 70% over the past six months. I assumed a guidance withdrawal wouldn’t trigger another steep selloff. I was wrong. Shares plummeted.

Nuix shares fell as much as 24.6%, before closing 16.0% lower.

Momentum matters

JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) released a sales update for the March 2025 quarter (1 January–31 March), revealing a slight growth slowdown. JB Hi-Fi Australia sales rose 6.5%, compared to 7.4% for 1–31 January reported at the half-year. Other segments — JB Hi-Fi New Zealand, The Good Guys, and e&s — also showed decelerating but positive growth.

Year-to-date FY25 sales growth for JB Hi-Fi Australia was 7.0%, trailing Citi’s February 2025 forecast of 7.4% revenue growth to $11.33 billion. The market’s reaction was volatile:

• Open: -3.97% to $99.50

• Low: -6.2% to $97.18

• Close: -0.15% to $103.45

What drove this? A few possibilities:

• The March quarter’s growth deceleration sparked an initial selloff.

• Year-to-date sales suggested a potential miss of Citi’s FY25 forecast, though Australia sales don’t fully reflect group performance, and three months remain in the fiscal year.

• The recovery may reflect JB Hi-Fi’s still-solid growth in a tough retail environment, potentially bolstered by its strong track record of cost control and margins.

Zip and Nasdaq futures

If you blindly bought Zip (ASX: ZIP) this morning – you'd be up around 13% – since the stock opened flat.

At its Macquarie conference presentation, Zip reaffirmed its upgraded FY25 cash EBTDA guidance of at least $153 million, highlighting strong Total Transaction Value (TTV) momentum, particularly in the US (April TTV up over 40% year-on-year). Both US and Australian portfolios showed stable credit loss performance. Two tailwinds may have fueled the rally:

• Nasdaq futures climbed 1.39% on news of US-China trade talks in Switzerland.

• Zip’s presentation, while reaffirming guidance, offered fresh April TTV data and credit loss stability.

Zip’s 16 April FY25 EBTDA upgrade had initially driven a 16.2% rally to $1.825, but the stock later dipped to $1.61 by 6 May. Today’s bounce suggests the market seized on renewed optimism.

No learnings, just head scratching

Kelsian Group (ASX: KLS) is no stranger to wild intraday swings. Its FY24 result in August saw a -12.1% opening drop and a -23.7% close. The 1H25 result in February followed suit, opening -2.2% lower and closing down -15.2%. Today, the pattern flipped: the stock opened 1.4% higher and closed up 18.2%.

Kelsian reported a 9-month underlying EBITDA of $210.4 million, holding steady despite global trade challenges. Its USA charter operations maintained strong utilisation, unaffected by tariff changes, while Easter trading met expectations. Marine & Tourism performance (excluding K’gari) was consistent with the prior year. The company noted FY25 underlying EBITDA is tracking toward the lower end of its $283–295 million guidance, in-line with Macquarie’s April 2025 forecast of $283 million.

Overall, the price action just did not add up to the underlying catalyst.