Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 whipsaws higher, Fed holds rates steady

ASX 200 futures are up 8pts (+0.09%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly higher amid choppy price action

• Alphabet shares tumbled 7.5% (or ~$150bn market cap) amid reports of falling Google search volume sand Apple exploring AI search to its browser

• Updates and earnings from ANZ, Light & Wonder, Orica and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher amid choppy trade (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher in a very choppy session, closing near session highs

• High volume of catalysts including overnight news of US and Chinese officials plans to meet in Switzerland this weekend to talk trade (however Bessent hosed down optimism after saying these would not be “advanced” discussions”), Fed led rates unchanged in-line with market expectations, Trump set to rescind Biden-era chip curbs and a sharp selloff for Alphabet (-7.5%) on Google search volume concerns

• Investors pulled US$8.9bn out of US equities, pivoting US$7.8bn into foreign stocks, says BofA (CNBC)

• US companies planning record $500bn in buybacks as tariff uncertainty weighs on investment plans (FT)

STOCKS

• Alphabet shares dive 7% after Google search volumes in Apple’s Safari browser fell for the first time in April, raising concerns that chatbots like ChatGPT are taking share from Google Search (BBG)

• Super Micro Q4 revenue guidance ($5.6-6.4bn vs. $6.59bn ests) underwhelms amid delayed customer orders (BBG)

• AMD guides Q2 revenue of US$7.4bn above expectations, flags $1.5bn hit from US export restrictions (BBG)

• Tesla's China's shipments decline for a seventh straight month, down 6% in April as rival BYD posts gains (BBG)

• BMW reaffirmed its 2025 outlook despite missing sales estimates, reporting stronger-than-expected profits (RT)

• Novo Nordisk beat operating profit estimates but missed on sales, cutting its guidance due to competition in GLP-1s (RT)

• Uber shares slip on weaker-than-expected Q1 gross bookings, citing lower US inbound travel and a strengthening US dollar (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50% for a third straight meeting, says swings in net exports have affected data but the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace (FED)

• PBOC cuts seven-day reverse repo rate to 1.4% from 1.5%, lowered reserve requirement ratio to boost economy (BBG)

TARIFFS

• White House planning to rescind Biden-era AI chip curbs, plans to rewrite policy that would strengthen control of chips abroad (BBG)

• Bessent, Greer meeting with China Vice Premier He Lifeng to kickstart US-China talks (BBG)

• Trump copper tariffs probe expected soon, according to trade group (BBG)

• Bessent suggests trade deal announcements as soon as this week (RT)

• US and UK near deal to lower tariffs on British steel, car exports (BBG)

ECONOMY

• German factory orders up 3.6% in March vs. 1.3% estimates, experiencing a widespread boost from various industries (BBG)

• New Zealand unemployment rate steady at 5.1% in the first quarter vs. expectations of 5.3% (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• ANZ reports 1H25 cash NPAT $3.56bn, largely in-line with consensus, proposed interim dividend of 83 cents per share (also in-line) but net interest margin of 1.56% missed 1.58% consensus (ANZ)  

• Light & Wonder reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $311m, in-line with market expectations, flags potential tariff headwinds but reiterates full-year EBITDA target of $1.4bn (LNW)

• Orica reports 1H25 NPAT $250.8m vs. $227.2m consensus, interim dividend of 25 cents per share (vs. a year ago 19 cents and Macquarie ests of 24 cents), reaffirms full-year guidance (ORI)

• Super Retail Group provides trading update for weeks 27-44, Group like-for-like sales up 3.3% year-on-year but year-to-date margins tracking below prior comparable period and broadly consistent with the decline in the first-half (SUL) 

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Zip: Not 100% sure if this is a catalyst for Zip but Sezzle (de-listed from the ASX to make sole US listing) reported Q1 EPS of $1.00 (vs. a year ago $0.22), upgraded full-year EPS guidance to $3.25 vs. prior guidance of $2.21, shares up 32% after hours. This could provide a strong lead in for Zip, although the stock did rally 13% yesterday.

• ANZ: Overall, a broadly in-line result with slightly softer-than-expected NIM and CET1 ratio. This could place a bit of downward pressure on the stock.

• Super Retail: The Q3 trading update flagged continued challenges for margins and weaker-than-expected sales growth for Rebel, Macpac and Super Cheap Auto.

BROKER MOVES

• JB Hi-Fi downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $93 from $91 (JPM)

• Paladin Energy downgraded to Neutral from Overweight but target up to $6 from $5.90 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 8 May: Future Generation Australia (FGG) – $0.037

• Fri 9 May: Healius (HLS) – $0.413, Saferoads (SRH) – $0.10

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Arena Reit (ARF)

• Earnings: ANZ (ANZ), Orica (ORI)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Woodside Energy (WDS)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: BoE Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Cut 25 bp to 4.25%)