Evening Wrap: ASX 200 finishes flat (again) after RBA surprises everyone; banks gain led by CBA, gold stocks shine

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.4 points higher, up 0.02%.

In a nutshell:

• The RBA shocked the market by keeping rates on hold at 3.85%

• Widespread expectations were for a 25 bps cut

• Global uncertainty and tariffs influenced the decision

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed up 1.4 points (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 added a measly point, closing below 8600 after trading to a session high of 8610.

• The index fell around 25 points in quick time after the 2:30 pm RBA decision.

• ASX 200 Financials Index (+0.38%) boosted by banks catching a bid, with CBA snapping its losing streak. It had fallen in seven of the past eight sessions.

• Consumer discretionary and telecommunication sectors also posted gains.

• ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (-1.44%) was the big loser, weighed down by Woolworths and Coles, shedding around 1.35% each.

• Utilities and real estate sectors also underperformed.

• Platinum Asset Management rose after finalising its merger terms with L1 Capital to create a $16.5 billion investment firm.

• Oil prices fell for the third time in the last four sessions, while gold steadied, as investors sought safe havens. Meanwhile, gold miners topped the leaderboard.

• Aussie dollar rallied on the RBA holding rates

Economy

• RBA board voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, surprising economists.

• Governor Bullock said Australians can expect rates to decline, but inflation needs to be “nailed” first.

• Bullock also said the RBA was “concerned” about costs of homebuilding and durable goods in latest monthly inflation figures.

• AMP sees the next rate cut coming in August.

• NAB Business Survey showed improvement, with business confidence rising for the third consecutive month, reaching its highest level in over a year.

• Markets shrugged off overnight weakness after Trump threatened 25 per cent tariff rates on both Japan and South Korea.

• The deadline for trade deals is expected to be pushed to August 1.

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +17.98% Dateline Resources (DTR) – Gold price steadying, safe haven buying

• +9.60% Resolute Mining (RSG) – Gold price

• +7.97% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – Gold price

• +7.93% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – Gold price

• +7.79% Vault Minerals (VAU) – Gold price

• +7.14% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) – No news

Trading lower

• -53.23% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) – Poorly received product launch update, soft sales

• -8.77% Canyon Resources (CAY) – No news

• -6.67% Strike Energy (STX) – No news

• -6.45% Coronado Global (CRN) – No news

• -6.13% Orthocell (OCC) – No news

Broker Notes

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $37.50 from $31.25

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.30

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Initiated at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.50

AMP (AMP)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.63 from $1.52

Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.90

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $65.50 from $66.00

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.50

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.10

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.20

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $41.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.20

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.65

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $38.20

Catapult Group International (CAT)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.00 from $5.70

Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.35 from $1.95

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.66 from $2.23

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.85 from $2.25

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.35 from $8.00

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $40.00 from $38.70

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.19

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.11

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $22.00 from $25.00

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.30

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.00

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.50

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.30

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.40

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.20

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $31.00 from $35.00

Metals X (MLX)

• Initiated at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.80

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.15 from $4.80

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $115.00

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.20 from $7.65

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $25.00 from $27.40

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.50 from $23.50

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00 from $22.00

• Downgraded to Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $24.30 from $25.20

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $17.50 from $21.25

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $27.00 from $26.00

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $21.78 from $25.15

• Retained at Sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $19.00 from $22.00

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $23.00

Objective Corporation (OCL)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $14.00 from $13.00

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.50

• Downgraded to Underweight from Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.46

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.15

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.90

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.50

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $120.00 from $115.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.60

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.90

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.10 from $2.60

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.14

South32 (S32)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.10

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.60

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.90 from $3.30

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.10

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.80 from $4.10

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.00

Titomic (TTT)

• Initiated at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Scans