Evening Wrap: ASX 200 retreats amid renewed tariff concerns, miners take a hit on NST, utilities jump on Origin

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13.7 points lower, down 0.16%.

In a nutshell:

• With the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, investors are cautious

• Trump's 'reciprocal' tariff pause will expire within days - nobody knows what will happen

• Northern Star tanks 9% on higher costs, lower production

• RBA widely expected to cut rates tomorrow

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed down 13.7 points (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 backed away from record highs and 8600 level.

• ASX 200 Materials Index (-0.86%) continued to pull back after a strong rally last week. Not helping things was a 0.3% decline in BHP, and 9% tumble in NST.

• ASX 200 Utilities Index (+3.52%) jumped sharply and is close to a 1-year high. A 6.8% jump in ORG was the big driver today.

• Broader market caution was driven by worries ahead of the July 9 deadline for Trump's reciprocal tariffs pause. Nobody knows what will happen, but Trump has been signalling that an additional 10% tariff will apply to countries aligned with the BRICS group of nations. Copper and aluminium prices also fell in the news.

• Oil prices slid lower after OPEC agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month.

Economy

• The RBA is widely expected to lower interest rates again tomorrow in further welcome relief for mortgage holders (although not so good for income investors). If the central bank cuts, it will mark the first back-to-back interest rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic.

• NAB Business Confidence will also be release tomorrow at 11:30 am.

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +13.49% Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) – bumper olive harvest and earnings forecast

• +13.28% PYV Therapeutics (PYC) – Approval to progress kidney disease trial to next stage

• +13.24% Larvotto Resources (LRV) – No news

• +7.38% Pact Group Holdings (PGH) – Business update

• +6.75% Origin Energy (ORG) – UK start-up Octopus Energy (ORG owns 23%) planning to demerge its technology arm, Kraken.

• +6.19% Synlait Milk (SM1) – COO Resignation

Trading lower

• -13.87% Antipa Minerals (AZY) – Capital raising

• -10.15% Elsight (ELS) – No news

• -8.65% Northern Star Resources (NST) – higher cost, lower production forecast

• -7.3% Southern Cross Gold (SX2) – No news

• -7.50% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – No news

Broker Notes

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.80

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.13 from $11.47

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.00

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.50

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $71.60

Bapcor (BAP)

• Initiated at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.58

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.50

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.45 from $4.60

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.21 from $1.27

Catapult Group International (CAT)

• Initiated at Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $7.65

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $100.00

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at Buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $13.00 from $10.60

• Upgraded to Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.90

• Retained at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.25

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.00 from $8.40

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.10

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.15 from $3.00

• Retained at Buy at Jarden; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.23

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.12 from $2.98

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $22.20 from $29.40

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.10

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.45 from $5.60

Fortescue (FMG)

• Downgraded to Sell from Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $15.87

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.50

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $40.47 from $37.50

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Initiated at Underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $24.00

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.55 from $6.00

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50

Image Resources NL (IMA)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.14

Liberty Financial Group (LFG)

• Downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.15

Metro Mining (MMI)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.17

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.25

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $30.50

Nanosonics (NAN)

• Retained at Sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.00 from $3.25

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.90

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.35 from $21.80

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Upgraded to Equal weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.46 from $9.33

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.60

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.10 from $24.80

Polynovo (PNV)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.69

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.00

Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.00 from $37.40

Resimac Group (RMC)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.88 from $1.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.05

Strickland Metals (STK)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.36 from $0.19

Santos (STO)

• Downgraded to Equal weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.88 from $9.99

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $22.00

Sovereign Metals (SVM)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00

Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL)

• Downgraded to Hold from Add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.33 from $1.73

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.16 from $1.99

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN)

• Initiated at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $3.12

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $27.75

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Upgraded to Overweight from Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.00

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.40

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.40 from $33.00

Scans