Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, US markets closed, European stocks fall on Trump tariff deadline jitters

In a nutshell:

• US markets closed for Independence Day (US data in overnight summary table refers to Thursday's session plus chart of S&P 500 refers to daily chart, not intraday)

• The Trump administration has extended the freeze on reciprocal tariffs, pushing the deadline from 9 July to 1 August

• Expect a slightly quiet and low volume day on the local sharemarket due to no US lead

Let's dive in.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US markets closed in observance for Independence Day

• Europe markets finished broadly lower as focus shifted back towards Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline

• Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5%, UK’s FTSE finished flat, France’s CAC 40 down 0.8% and Germany's DAX eased 0.6% 

• Despite the broad fall, most European benchmarks closed off session lows (e.g. Stoxx 600 closed above session lows of -0.90%)

• Markets reflect limited anxiety ahead of 9 July tariff deadline, with investors prepared for a range of scenarios (BBG)

• Meme stocks, unprofitable firms back in favour as market rally broadens beyond big tech (WSJ)

• Record dip-buying by retail investors has resulted in strong share market returns(FT)

• Big investors like BlackRock buy UK bonds during Chancellor Reeves speculation sell-off, signaling market confidence (FT)

• OPEC+ to increase August output by 548K bpd, larger than the expected 411K bpd (CNBC)

STOCKS

• Alphabet hit with EU antitrust complaint over AI Overviews of search results, arguing harm to publishers (RT)

• Meta offers to buy stake in venture funds from AI hires Friedman and Gross (BBG)

• Starboard reveals 9% Tripadvisor stake, believes travel company's stock is undervalued (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Strong US nonfarm payrolls gives Fed room to wait, but details reveal weakness in private jobs (BBG)

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic repeats need for wait-and-see against backdrop of still resilient economy, inflation uncertainty (BBG)

• ECB comfortable with rates, with Chief Lagarde reaffirming the central bank's commitment to 2% inflation target (BBG)

• Economists expect another RBA rate cut on Tuesday (RT)

• RBNZ widely expected to hold on Tuesday to hold on same day (RT)

TARIFFS & US BILL

• House passes reconciliation bill, Trump signing ceremony slated for Friday at 16:00 ET (BBG)

• Reconciliation bill averts near-term debt ceiling breach, but poses longer-term risks for Treasuries (RT)

• Bessent says countries without trade deals by 1-Aug will see tariffs return to the 2-Apr reciprocal levels, says several deals close (BBG)

• Trump on Monday to send letters to 12 countries with "take it or leave it" tariff levels (RT)

• US ambassador to Canada says a win-win deal could be within reach (BBG)

• US lifts restrictions on Chinese goods as trade framework implementation accelerates (BBG)

• EU Commission President von der Leyen says aiming for agreement in-principle by 9-Jul, full trade deal "impossible" by then (FT)

• Vietnam still working to hash out details of trade deal announced by Trump, leaving questions unanswered (BBG)

• Australia faces continued US tariffs, government to keep negotiating for exemption (RT)

ECONOMY

• China Q2 GDP seen growing 5%, 2025 projections back to pre-Liberation Day levels (NK)

• German industrial orders unexpectedly plummet in May, dragged down by electronics sector decline (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Alkane Resources reports FY25 gold production of 70.1koz vs. prior guidance of 70-80koz (ALK)

• Northern Star reports FY25 gold sold of 1,634koz vs. guidance 1,630-1660koz (NST)

• Ramelus reports fourth quarter gold production of 73.5koz vs. 62-72koz guidance, FY25 gold production slightly above top end of 290-300koz guidance, AISC at the lower end of A$1,550-1,650/oz guidance (RMS)

• Regis Resources reports FY25 gold production of 373koz vs. 350-380koz guidance (RRL)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold quarterlies galore: Lots of gold quarterly results flowing through this morning. As RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley noted last Friday: "Miners typically finish the year strongly in Q4, plus any softness vs FY25 guidance is generally understood. Greater focus will be on new FY26 guidance."

• A quiet one: Expect a relatively quiet, low volume session due to the lack of US lead.

BROKER MOVES

• Boss Energy downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $4.45 from $4.60 (MQG)

• Guzman Y Gomez initiated Underweight with $24 target (JPM)

• Hub24 upgraded to Buy with $104 target (UBS)

• Santos downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; but target up to $8.88 from $6.92 (MS)

• Suncorp downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target remains $22 (GS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 7 Jul: Collins Foods (CKF) – $0.15, Katana  Capital (KAT) – $0.005

• Tue 8 Jul: US Masters Residential Property Fund (URF) – $0.10

• Wed 9 Jul: None

• Thu 10 Jul: None

• Fri 11 Jul: Turners Automotive Group (TRA) – $0.083

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.