ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 7th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, July 7. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

ASX 200 edges lower

[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13 points lower (-0.16%) following Friday's record close. The market continues to display rather choppy but bullish price action, even after several consecutive down days, its still within an arms reach of record highs. Here are some of my key highlights from today:

• Market breadth was slightly negative, with 108 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (54%) finishing lower.

• Heavyweight stocks were relatively unchanged, with CBA (-0.11%) and BHP (-0.34%) weakness offset by CSL (+2.1%).

• Utilities (+3.5%) sector surged, largely off the back of a 6.5% gain for Origin Energy. This was driven by a Saturday report by Sky News that UK-based Octopus Energy (Origin owns a 23% stake), is considering a demerging of its technology arm, Kraken Technologies. According to banking sources, Kraken could be valued as much as $14 billion.

• Healthcare (+0.9%) sector was unsurprisingly strong after the CSL move. There was no news associated with this move, though CSL is starting to bottom after trading around 6-year lows for the past couple of weeks.

• Tomorrow's RBA decision is going to be a big catalyst. Markets have an 86% expectation of a 25 bp cut tomorrow, and fully priced in three more rate cuts by year end.

Trump threatens an additional 10% tariff

[2:34 pm] President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning with the "anti-American policies" of the BRICS bloc, with no exceptions, as stated in a Truth Social post on July 6, 2025.

The BRICS group includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran. The group positions itself as a political and diplomatic coordination forum for Global South countries, focusing on diverse areas of cooperation.

Trump did not clarify what constitutes "anti-American policies" in the context of the tariff policy.

Gold miners broadly lower

[1:36 pm] Gold miners are trading broadly lower, with the weakness attributed to a slight fall in gold prices (-0.41% to US$3,311 an ounce) and mixed quarterly updates.

Commodities check in

[12:34 pm] Commodities are trading broadly lower on Monday after Trump said some US trading partners would face tariffs from 1 August. Here are the key movers:

ASX 200 chops around breakeven

[11:41 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading slightly lower, down 12 pts (-0.15%) amid a relatively quiet session. Here are some of the key highlights from the session so far:

• Relatively flat breadth, with 99 S&P/ASX 200 constituents lower, 16 unchanged and 85 higher

• Heavyweights remain relatively unchanged, with Commonwealth Bank down 0.1% and BHP up 0.1%

• Utilities (+2.55%) leading the market, largely driven by a 5.0% rally for Origin Energy (catalyst remains largely unknown, Morgan Stanley raised its target by 1.5% to $9.46 per share)

• Healthcare (+0.95%), Tech (+0.53%) and Staples (+0.22%) also ticking higher

• Discretionary (-0.62%) is underperforming, largely driven by weakness from Wesfarmers (-0.9%), The Lottery Corp (-0.5%) and Aristocrat Leisure (-0.30%)

• Energy (-0.55%) also struggling after oil prices slipped around 1% on Monday. OPEC+ accelerated output hikes by 548,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about oversupply

Small caps making moves

[11:05 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.

Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:30 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

Citi downgrades Australian Finance Group and Pepper Money

[10:25 am] Australian Finance Group and Pepper Money shares surged 40–45% year-to-date, driven by a rates narrative reset with expectations of a 3.1% terminal cash rate.

Lower interest rates are expected to boost credit demand and stabilse net interest margins, but this dynamic is now largely priced in by the market. Earnings growth for AFG and PPM is anticipated to build through FY26, though competitive dynamics need to confirm sustainability for FY26 and beyond.

Recent share price gains (~50% from April lows) reflect P/E re-rating to cyclical highs rather than significant earnings revisions, with earnings expected to materialise gradually as lower rates improve sentiment, applications, settlements, and net interest income.

As a result, Citi downgraded both stocks from Buy to Neutral, but updated their target prices to:

• Australian Finance Group target up to $2.10 from $1.85

• Pepper Money target up to $1.75 from $1.45

Soul Patts raises additional $220 million

[10:20 am] Soul Patts has raised an additional $220 million at no discount to its last closing price of $42.61.

The company says its now fully funded, having received commitments for 34 million shares with total proceeds of approximately $1.4 billion.

"This represents a key milestone in the merger process, providing shareholders with certainty that all equity funding has been secured ahead of the scheme votes," the company said in a statement.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Soul Patts (SOL)

Northern Star opens sharply lower

[10:16 am] Northern Star is trading sharply lower, currently trying to find a floor. Here are the key price points:

• Open: -2.94% to $17.85

• Session low: -8.05% to $16.91 (at 10:09 am)

• Current: -6.53% to $17.19 (10:16 am)

As we reported earlier this morning:

Northern Star guided to 1,700-1,850koz of gold sales for FY26 at an AISC of A$2,300-2,700/oz.

Citi forecasts FY26 (as at Jun-2025) gold production of 1,793koz (not quite comparable to gold sales) and an AISC of A$2,181/oz. This suggests the company is guiding towards substantially higher costs.

Nanosonics launches two new devices

[9:51 am] Nanosonics launched the 'trophon3', a next-generation ultrasound high-level disinfection device, featuring a cycle over 40% faster than previous models, enhanced digital integration, and the broadest traceability capabilities.

The company also launched a software upgrade for existing trophon2 users, bringing key trophon3 features to current systems, extending innovation benefits to the entire customer base.

The two products will be launched in Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, with a US FDA regulatory application submitted and under review.

The launches are expected to reinforce Nanosonics’ leadership in ultrasound reprocessing, drive upgrades from first-generation trophon EPR units, and expand the installed base.

"We estimate only ~35% of NAN's US installed base had upgraded to a trophon2 at Dec 24 and therefore we believe there is a reasonable runway for further upgrade sales," noted RBC Capital Markets analyst Craig Wong-Pan.

"However, whilst the trophon3 offers a >40% faster cycle time and enhanced digital and traceability capabilities, we are unsure whether these features will be enough to convince a material number of hospitals to upgrade their existing trophon devices given many are currently facing financial and budgetary pressures."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Nanosonics (NAN)

Cobram Estate Olives issues FY25 guidance

[9:45 am] Cobram Estate Olives guides FY25 adjusted EBITDA to be $115 million, slightly ahead of $114.3 million consensus. Key takeaways from the update include:

• Olive Oil Production: FY25 production reached 14.2 million liters, a significant increase from 10.1 million liters in the prior year.

• Sales Performance: Strong sales growth driven primarily by Cobram Estate brand in Australia and the USA.

• Australian Operations: Bottling and sales of 2025 harvest extra virgin olive oil began in April 2025, with over 2.7 million liters sold by June 30, 2025.

• Dividend: Declared a fully franked dividend of 4.5 cents per share, payable in late November 2025.

• Acquisition: Acquired Leda Ag, a farming machinery business, for an initial payment of ~$3.0m, with an additional $2.0m to be paid over the next four years.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

South32 divests Cerro Matoso

[9:40 am] South32 has entered into a binding agreement to sell its Cerro Matoso project to CoreX for up to US$100 million, which includes a US$80 million based on future production and nickel prices and US$20 million based on permitting milestones over the next five years.

"“The Transaction is consistent with our strategy and will further streamline our portfolio toward higher margin businesses in minerals and metals critical to the world’s energy transition," said CEO Graham Kerr.

Cerro Matoso will be reported as a discontinued operation until the transaction is complete, and incur a US$130 million write down in FY25 accounts.

The announcement was marked as non-sensitive.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: South32 (S32)

Northern Star guides to higher costs for FY26

[9:38 am] Northern Star sold 1.63 million ounces of gold in FY25, in-line with its guidance of 1.63-1.66 million ounces. All-in sustaining costs expected to fall within guidance range of A$2,100-2,200 an ounce.

A weak FY26 guidance was already flagged at the company's March quarter report, where the company flagged "delayed access to Golden Pike North, higher maintenance costs across Yandal and higher royalties." The stock fell 4.7% on the day of this announcement (29 April).

Northern Star guided to 1,700-1,850koz of gold sales for FY26 at an AISC of A$2,300-2,700/oz.

Citi forecasts FY26 (as at Jun-2025) gold production of 1,793koz (not quite comparable to gold sales) and an AISC of A$2,181/oz. This suggests the company is guiding towards substantially higher costs.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Northern Star (NST)

Bellevue Gold misses downgraded Q4 guidance

[9:28 am] Bellevue Gold reported preliminary fourth quarter gold production of 38.9koz vs. 40-40.5koz guidance or a 3.3% miss at the midpoint. The company sold 130,164 ounces of gold in FY25 vs. Goldman Sachs estimates of 134,00 ounces (2.8% miss).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bellevue Gold (BGL)

Alkane Resources hits FY25 guidance

[9:18 am] Alkane Resources reported FY25 gold production of 70,120 ounces, in-line with expectations towards the lower end of 70-80,000 ounces (soft guidance expectations was noted on 7 April).

“Alkane’s operation at Tomingley, combined with our merger with Mandalay Resources, place us firmly into the mid-tier gold companies on the ASX. We look forward to the year ahead and delivering for our shareholders," noted Managing Director Nic Earner.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Alkane Resources (ALK)

Ramelius tops FY25 guidance, no outlook for FY26

[9:11 am] Ramelius topped its FY25 guidance and reported a massive year for free cash flow, generating $694.9 million and lifting its cash position to $809.7 million (vs. $2.7bn market cap).

• 4Q25 gold production of 73,454 oz (vs. guidance of 62,000 – 72,000 oz or a 9.6% beat at the midpoint)

• FY25 gold production of 301,664 oz (vs. guidance of 290,000 – 300,000 oz or a 2.2% beat at the midpoint)

• All-in sustaining cost will be "at the lower end of the upgraded guidance range of A$1,550-1,650/oz"

"In the near team, we are working towards completion of our previously announced transaction with Spartan Resources. We plan to embrace their exploration DNA which led to the discovery of the highest-grade undeveloped gold project in Australia, importantly right in our backyard," said Managing Director Mark Zeptner.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ramelius Resources (RMS)

RBC's fourth quarter and FY26 gold forecasts

[9:01 am] RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley also outlined their forecasts for the fourth quarter of FY25 and FY26 for major gold names including:

Northern Star (NST): A Q3 downgrade in FY25 lowered expectations for Q4 and FY26. Underperformance at KCGM (431koz vs. guidance of 550koz) may persist into FY26. Group estimates (RBCe/cons of 1,802/1,835koz) fall short of Northern Star’s outdated 2.0Moz target, with AISC (+3%) and growth capex (+9%) also missing consensus.

Evolution Mining (EVN): FY25 gold production is on track to meet guidance. FY26 group production is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with estimates aligning closely with consensus. Despite a 35% reserve grade reduction at Red Lake, minimal risks to FY26 guidance are anticipated. However, Evolution Mining’s strong FY25 stock performance limits its value, making Northern Star a preferred choice for its superior long-term growth outlook.

Ramelius Resources (RMS): FY25 gold production is projected at 300koz, hitting the top end of guidance. However, a decline to 212koz in FY26 and 178koz in FY27 is expected, alongside rising construction capex. This tempers Ramelius Resources’ upside potential. Existing FY26 guidance of 200koz reduces result risk.

Regis Resources (RRL): Modest expectations for FY26 gold production (365koz vs. consensus of 375koz, compared to FY25e of 372koz) include AISC (+4% vs. consensus) and growth capex (+A$65m). Despite strong FY25 stock performance, Regis Resources offers compelling FY26 value, with a 3.2x EV/EBITDA multiple and a 21% FCF yield.

Westgold Resources (WGX): FY25 guidance, already downgraded, may still be missed. However, this is considered priced in, and Westgold Resources presents strong FY26 value at a 2.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, driven by consistent, unhedged production growth from FY26 to FY28.

Vault Minerals (VAU): Preliminary Q4 results indicate a slight miss on FY25 sales guidance. Conservative FY26 estimates fall below consensus for gold (-4%), AISC (+14%), and growth capex (+22%), yet Vault Minerals remains attractively valued. As hedges roll off, an 85% EBITDA increase is expected by FY27, supporting an upgrade to Outperform.

Gold Road Resources (GOR): Q2 gold production rose 18% after a sluggish Q1. Gold Road Resources is expected to trade in line with the terms of its proposed takeover deal.Bellevue Gold (BGL): A potential Q4 guidance miss (RBCe 38koz vs. 40-45koz) is overshadowed by strong quarterly FCF improvement (A$48m vs. Q3’s -A$40m), driven by unhedged sales. Existing FY26 and FY27 guidance indicates solid growth and reduced result risk.

Before we dive into gold quarterlies

[8:58 am] There's a long list of gold quarterly results to digest this morning. Before we dive in to them, its worth noting some high-level insights from RBC Capital Markets analyst Alex Barkley.

• Q4 Strength & FY26 Focus: Miners typically perform strongly in Q4, with FY25 guidance softness generally understood. Greater investor focus is on new FY26 guidance, following a FY25 with few surprises and decent operational delivery.

• Performance Context: AUD gold prices rose ~45% in FY25, but producer coverage only outperformed by ~10% despite earnings leverage. Top FY25 performers (SX2, RRL, EVN, DEG, GOR) were less hedged.

• FY26 Outlook: Mid-tier miners with less hedged production growth offer the cheapest earnings. WGX and BGL are highlighted as Outperform with strong near-term value and low-risk growth after weak FY25 delivery.

• Upgrades & Downgrades: VAU upgraded to Outperform as operational concerns are priced in, with hedge roll-offs driving FY26/FY27 EBITDA growth. SX2 downgraded to Sector Perform, Spec. Risk due to strong stock performance; SMI rated Outperform for its P/NAV discount.

• Preference: Unhedged RRL favored over large-caps NST and Underperform-rated EVN for positive momentum. Select mid-tiers offer better value, growth, and risk balance.

What's driving stocks?

[8:54 am] European stocks finished mostly lower as tariff jitters returned. The key overnight drivers include:

• The House passed a US$3.4tn fiscal package that cuts taxes, curtails spending and reverses much of Joe Biden's clean energy efforts

• Trumps reciprocal tariffs are set to go into effort on 1 August, but Trump is setting the rates and deals right now

• Major US trading partners hurried over the weekend to secure trade deals or lobby for extra time, noted Bloomberg

• Trump said he signed letters to 12 countries, outlining various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the US, with the 'take it or leave it' offers to be sent out on Monday, according to Reuters

Good morning!

[8:40 am] ASX 200 futures are flat, though European stocks finished broadly lower as market jitters returned ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariff deadline. The US market was closed in observance of Independence Day.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.